I flopped it, they rivered it. What do you do?

[jason_t]

Loose passive festival.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, UTG calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (12.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

River: (16.75 BB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, CO folds, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 19.75 BB

[me454555]

I raise the river, if you can get UTG to fold that huge +EV. I can't see CO having any hand that contains a queen so I'm fairly certain your've at least got a split pot here

[private joker]

Loose passive table? I can see MP3 having Q9, QT, and QJ. No way I raise this river. Passive players don't come alive on a chopped hand.

[bakku]

[ QUOTE ]
I raise the river, if you can get UTG to fold that huge +EV. I can't see CO having any hand that contains a queen so I'm fairly certain your've at least got a split pot here

[/ QUOTE ]

QhXh? QJ?

[me454555]

Oops, didn't see the 2 flush on the flop. You are correct about that queen. However,

River: (16.75 BB) T (4 players)
UTG checks, MP3 bets, CO folds, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Final pot is 20 bbs, which is 6.33 bbs/person (5.33 bbs/person of profit) if split

If you raise and eliminate UTG the pot now 20 bbs but its split 2 ways for a total of 10 bbs/person or (8 bbs/person of profit)

This is a difference of 2.66 bbs. If you raise and he's got the Q hes going to 3 bet and you call, costing you 2 bbs. You only have to be right about 40% of the time to make this play if we assume UTG will fold if we raise.

[jason_t]

That is what I was thinking too and that's why I didn't raise. But how large would the pot have to be to make raising here a valid option? I'm getting about 8:1 on a raise here, but it might not fold UTG and it subjects me to a 3-bet.

If MP3 had Q9, the Inessa, that would be truly truly evil.

[jason_t]

Nice analysis, looks like raising is the right play. Thanks.

[private joker]

I still disagree with this. You have to take the read into account. Passive players do not all of a sudden come alive and bet into two different players who capped the flop unless they can beat the board. I'm not saying he definitely has a Q, but that you will more likely lose an extra BB by raising than you will gain UTG's share of the chop. You have to take into account the times you successfully fold UTG but MP3 has a Q, and you also have to think about the very minor chance that CO has a Q and is going for overcalls (not that this happens more than 5% of the time, but still...). I'm not trying to be weak-tight about this -- I do not recommend folding -- but I think raising is spewing.

[jason_t]

Amazingly, CO folded on the river.

Your argument for not raising is pretty convincing. At least I understand why I had such a hard time deciding at the table.

Edit: I think your argument is the correct one, taking into consideration the read on MP3. If he was a tricky player I'd change my mind.

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]
Amazingly, CO folded on the river.


[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, that's right I'm sorry.

I guess he was far more convinced than we were that meek little MP3 came alive with a Q. So what are the results?

[jason_t]

UTG had K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif and MP3 had A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif!!! So I guess UTG was aiming for runner-runner spades, or thought a K or a 6 would be good, and MP3 was drawing to the retard-end of the straight and maybe thought an A would be good.

[me454555]

I did take into account the times that MP3 had a Q, thats where the 60/40 number came from.

A lot is based on read here and given the way the hand played, being able to fold someone out of a split pot is very profitable even if you're not correct all the time.