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View Full Version : Am I just completely idiotic in this hand?

The-Matador
02-04-2005, 05:33 PM
UTG is a maniac who was capping with any two cards (literally). MP3 is a rock though. I should have just dumped to the turn raise, right?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG caps</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (13.33 SB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (8.16 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls.

River: (14.16 BB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 16.16 BB
VBM
02-04-2005, 05:34 PM
let me guess...you won this hand...
The-Matador
02-04-2005, 05:36 PM
[ QUOTE ]
let me guess...you won this hand...

[/ QUOTE ]

You guessed wrong. I was shown queens. The point of the question is to verify that I should have folded to the turn raise, as there isn't much I beat on the turn except a naked drawing A /images/graemlins/heart.gif. Right?
Tom Martell
02-04-2005, 05:38 PM
I think you are up against either AK of hearts or KK here from MP3. With the size of the pot and your heart redraw, which may or may not be good, you probably need to call down. I don't see a good spot to fold. Given the flop action, I like leading the turn.

The only other option I see is going for a check raise on the flop. UTG's play is strange. Capping then checking is a weak play, meaning he either wants to check raise or he has a black/diamond AK, or he overplayed a small PP preflop. When he just cold calls your bet and checks the turn, he has to have either nothing or be slowplaying a monster IMO.
private joker
02-04-2005, 05:38 PM
[ QUOTE ]
MP3 is a rock

[/ QUOTE ]

'Nuff said.
The-Matador
02-04-2005, 05:40 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I think you are up against either AK of hearts or KK here from MP3. With the size of the pot and your heart redraw, which may or may not be good, you probably need to call down. I don't see a good spot to fold. Given the flop action, I like leading the turn.

The only other option I see is going for a check raise on the flop. UTG's play is strange. Capping then checking is a weak play, meaning he either wants to check raise or he has a black/diamond AK, or he overplayed a small PP preflop. When he just cold calls your bet and checks the turn, he has to have either nothing or be slowplaying a monster IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

UTG is basically irrelavent in this hand. He was a total maniac who was capping PF every single hand. My cue should have been that the rock 3 bet it--he was playing about one hand an hour, and always trying to isolate the maniac with a big pair when he played. I should have known I was up against a bigger pair or at least a queen, I think, and laid it down. I always put a lot of stock into turn raises, and failed to do so here.
VBM
02-04-2005, 05:42 PM
well, i'm still rolling up BB's for 2/4 in 1/2, but seems like a rock would only 3-bet JJ-AA

*maybe* TT &amp; AK vs some opponents.

of that range of hands, you beat the "maybes" and chop with a very unlikely JJ...so i think you're target here.
Tom Martell
02-04-2005, 05:46 PM
removed
The-Matador
02-04-2005, 05:47 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
MP3 is a rock

[/ QUOTE ]

'Nuff said.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I know. Sigh. I need to turn up the good and turn down the suck on hands like this, seriously. Sklansky bucks don't go as far as they used to.
chief444
02-04-2005, 05:47 PM
Yea, if he's really a "rock" then I'd expect to see QQ. At worst AA with the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif. That's only if your read is right.
davelin
02-04-2005, 05:48 PM
[ QUOTE ]
The information about the players would be very helpful for analysis in the original post...

[/ QUOTE ]

It was in the original post...
The-Matador
02-04-2005, 05:49 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Yea, if he's really a "rock" then I'd expect to see QQ. At worst AA with the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif. That's only if your read is right.

[/ QUOTE ]

The read was right. I had about 800 PT hands on him and he was at 11% VPIP. He'd only shown down enormous PF hands all night. I should have known. This sort of hand is precisely *why* I have Playerview up, and I ignored its obvious warnings.
Tom Martell
02-04-2005, 05:53 PM
At the time of the turn raise, there are 11 BBs in the pot. How many live outs do you have? If you put him on an overpair, QQ KK or AA, then your flush is only good for 6 or 7 outs as you may be drawing dead against his A or K. Hitting your J is still drawing dead to his possible QQ, so thats only around 1.5 outs.

Given 7-8 outs with 11:1, you are still getting odds to call. When you miss on the river, you then have to decide how certain you are that he isnt bluffing. If he'd bet AK one heart on a busted draw like this, or something like TT, even 1 in 13 you are good to call. I dont think calling down here was that wrong.
chief444
02-04-2005, 05:56 PM
Against a true "rock" you have 2 outs at best.
bakku
02-04-2005, 06:17 PM
Giving hero 7-8 outs here is way too optimistic.

If we assume villain will only have AA/KK/QQ here, there's:

6 ways for AA
3 of those have a heart leaving hero with 2 outs
3 of those don't have a heart leaving hero with 9-1+2 = 10 outs

6 ways for KK
3 of those have a heart leaving hero with 2 outs
3 of those don't have a heart leaving hero with 9-1+2 = 10 outs

3 ways for QQ, which gives hero 0 outs.

Weigh those together and hero has 4.8 outs. However, we have to account for the fact that villain is a rock and has hero drawing really slim or dead a good amount of the time. So yea, it's close.
pudley4
02-04-2005, 07:36 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
let me guess...you won this hand...

[/ QUOTE ]

You guessed wrong. I was shown queens. The point of the question is to verify that I should have folded to the turn raise, as there isn't much I beat on the turn except a naked drawing A /images/graemlins/heart.gif. Right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong, but you already know that (I hope)
The-Matador
02-04-2005, 11:06 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
let me guess...you won this hand...

[/ QUOTE ]

You guessed wrong. I was shown queens. The point of the question is to verify that I should have folded to the turn raise, as there isn't much I beat on the turn except a naked drawing A /images/graemlins/heart.gif. Right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong, but you already know that (I hope)

[/ QUOTE ]

Well in theory, yes wrong. But really, this rock was only raising AA, KK, QQ, or AK at this point. No way is he 3 betting 10s or worse, and he'd only called with AJs against the nutcase before. So I really was a total dummy on this hand, frankly.