AA suited
02-04-2005, 05:18 PM
Thought this would be useful...
From this THREAD (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=singletable&Number=590230& Forum=f22&Words=streak&Searchpage=0&Limit=250&Main =590114&Search=true&where=sub&Name=&daterange=1&ne werval=1&newertype=y&olderval=&oldertype=&bodyprev =#Post590230)
"assume you expect to place in 40% of SNGs. Here is the probability that beginning with your next SNG, that you will have a losing streak of the following lengths:
10: .006 (i.e. expect a streak this long once in 160 tourneys)
12: .002 (i.e expect it once in 500 tourneys)
15: .0005 (expect it once in 2000 tourneys)
20: .000037 (expect it once in 27000 tourneys)
most likely, if you experience a streak of less than 10, it could easily be random chance. If it is more than 12, suspect that you are on tilt. "
Assuming the math is correct, this does not mean the probability of a -30 SnG downswing for a 40% ITM player.
it just means how many times in a row OTM.
From this THREAD (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=singletable&Number=590230& Forum=f22&Words=streak&Searchpage=0&Limit=250&Main =590114&Search=true&where=sub&Name=&daterange=1&ne werval=1&newertype=y&olderval=&oldertype=&bodyprev =#Post590230)
"assume you expect to place in 40% of SNGs. Here is the probability that beginning with your next SNG, that you will have a losing streak of the following lengths:
10: .006 (i.e. expect a streak this long once in 160 tourneys)
12: .002 (i.e expect it once in 500 tourneys)
15: .0005 (expect it once in 2000 tourneys)
20: .000037 (expect it once in 27000 tourneys)
most likely, if you experience a streak of less than 10, it could easily be random chance. If it is more than 12, suspect that you are on tilt. "
Assuming the math is correct, this does not mean the probability of a -30 SnG downswing for a 40% ITM player.
it just means how many times in a row OTM.