SNGs -- Skill or Formula?

[Mynok]

I've been reading quite a bit of posts recently and in the archives about achievable ROIs for SNGs. My own sample size is very small, so I won't bother talking about my ROI at this point. What I'm curious about is the whole notion of skill in these things. I know this topic has come up in a variety of forms in the past, so I hope people don't mind revisisting it.

In my more cynical moments I think I could teach a total newbie the "correct" strategy for these SNGs by putting a few basic guidelines on a 3X5 card: play tight first few levels; okay to see some flops cheaply with speculative hands like suited connectors or small pairs; in mid levels crank up the aggression and in later levels play super aggressively. I know there are nuances to all this and things like the gap concept to take into account. And obviously a total newbie wouldn't *really* be able to play well consulting a 3X5 card. But...come on, especially on party's structure, if you have the basics down and some experience and you've read a few books and things like Aleomagus' guide and so on...how many skill levels are there really? Am I missing something? Seems to me that in the 240 or so 10+1 games I have played a clear pattern emerges: play tight early, sometimes hit a monster, most times don't; start stealing more and playing more aggressively when blinds are 50/100 and/or there are 6 people or less. At this point I'll either build a really nice stack, or a fall to a really dangerous one. You all know the drill.

Doesn't the fact that many people on this forum play 4 or 8 tables at a time signify that playing these things is the application of a formula? You can't really get reads on people when you're playing 40-80 other people simultaneously.

If that's the case, I'd assume the difference between a 10 percent ROI over a couple of thousand games and a 20 percent ROI over a couple of thousand games would be...what?...a better feel of the gap concept? A little better timing or "feel" for blind steals? Little things that? What do you guys think? Irieguy? Lorinda? Aleomagus?

[MagnoliasFM]

It's all formula. For every situation, there is a best play and there's a not-so-good one. Even if the forumla took 10 3x5 cards to explain, it'd still be a formula, albiet a long one. The "skill" comes in discovering and using this perfect forumla, which exists, but may not be completely known to everybody...or anybody for that matter.

[Scuba Chuck]

If that's the case, I'd assume the difference between a 10 percent ROI over a couple of thousand games and a 20 percent ROI over a couple of thousand games would be...what?...a better feel of the gap concept? A little better timing or "feel" for blind steals? Little things that? What do you guys think? Irieguy? Lorinda? Aleomagus?

Frankly, this your job while visiting this forum. I've discovered the secret formula is given out in little tidbits over and over. So you are essentially following Hansel and Grettel's little bread crumbs through the 1 Table Tournament Forest. Your best way to gain those tidbits are by posting individual HHs, and asking questions.

By no means do I know much, and the posters you're asking questions from know BOATLOADS more than me. But I seriously doubt they give it out without paying some ungodly amount of money to them.

But, it's been great fun for me, trucking through the forest. Happy trails.

[hovemag]

I havent got the knowledge to answer your question, but Ive been about long enough to know you should have mentioned the Yugoslavian

[Tyler Durden]

I think SNGs are quite formulaic. But they require skill as well. So it's a combo of the two.

[byronkincaid]

Wouldn't everyone be playing $200s all day if it were so easy? If everyone plays to the same formula then wouldn't it become quite easy to beat them all with an anti-formula? Does the same formula work in both the $10s and the $200s?

[stupidsucker]

The skill in SnGs is knowing most of the formula.

The formula changes each table... knowing the xfactor puts people over thee top. Knowing the formula puts them in the race.

[lorinda]

Knowing the formula puts them in the race.

This is how I see it too.

Knowing the formula merely lets you understand the game you are playing.
There are so many people who don't even get this far that it turns out the formula can make you a winner.

I think I posted yesterday that the formula is your starting point, not your finishing point.
If I didn't post that, I should have.

Scuba Chuck's bubble hand today is an example of just how complicated the game can get. (Although I still prefer MTG)

Lori

[Scuba Chuck]

Lorinda, what is MTG?

[lorinda]

See the hijacked Irieguy/live play thread.

Lori

[AA suited]

it's the formula.

stay tight early. limp in w/speculative hands. if you dont hit top pair or better on the flop, check/fold.

in later rounds, steal blinds if short stacked to survive. and it's up to luck. you will either:
1) steal enuf to barely make ITM
2) win a confrontation and double up to be a medium stack
3) lose a confrontation and be eliminated

There is no poker to be played if you're in push/fold mode.

The only time there is poker to be played is if you are a medium/big stack and another medium/big stack calls your raise. (if a short stack calls your raise, then you have the pot odds to bet/call the rest of his stack no matter what hits on the flop.)

and even at 50+5, I find it rare that a medium/big stack will call a raise from another medium/big stack and actual poker will be played. it'll be either fold or re-raise all-in.

or if they just call your raise, it's a stop and go where they will go all in on the flop. thus still no poker to be played.

To summerize:
1) in early rounds, dont play poker. check/fold if you dont hit top pair or better. no reason to risk your stack for 90 chips.

2) in later rounds, you will be shortstacked if you don't get anything significant in the early rounds. push/fold strategy here.

3) if you win a confrontation, then you become a medium stack. and then there is a slight chance you might play actual poker. imagine that... /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

And what should you do post-flop if they don't do a 'Stop and Go' and you are playing actual poker? it all depends on stack sizes, size of pot, blind sizes, reads, your cards, cards on the board, etc. What, you thought there would be an easy answer to playing poker? /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[johnnybeef]

replace the word formula with strategy...in any poker (or any other competitive) situation it is necesarry to find an optimum strategy and execute it to a T. in the 10+1 sngs the strategy is relatively simple as the people who play in them are relative simpletons

[Pepsquad]

[ QUOTE ]
it's the formula.

stay tight early. limp in w/speculative hands. if you dont hit top pair or better on the flop, check/fold.

in later rounds, steal blinds if short stacked to survive. and it's up to luck. you will either:
1) steal enuf to barely make ITM
2) win a confrontation and double up to be a medium stack
3) lose a confrontation and be eliminated

There is no poker to be played if you're in push/fold mode.

The only time there is poker to be played is if you are a medium/big stack and another medium/big stack calls your raise. (if a short stack calls your raise, then you have the pot odds to bet/call the rest of his stack no matter what hits on the flop.)

and even at 50+5, I find it rare that a medium/big stack will call a raise from another medium/big stack and actual poker will be played. it'll be either fold or re-raise all-in.

or if they just call your raise, it's a stop and go where they will go all in on the flop. thus still no poker to be played.

To summerize:
1) in early rounds, dont play poker. check/fold if you dont hit top pair or better. no reason to risk your stack for 90 chips.

2) in later rounds, you will be shortstacked if you don't get anything significant in the early rounds. push/fold strategy here.

3) if you win a confrontation, then you become a medium stack. and then there is a slight chance you might play actual poker. imagine that... /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

And what should you do post-flop if they don't do a 'Stop and Go' and you are playing actual poker? it all depends on stack sizes, size of pot, blind sizes, reads, your cards, cards on the board, etc. What, you thought there would be an easy answer to playing poker? /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

With all due respect, this is overly simplistic. You will not win SNG's if you simply play this way (though to your credit AA suited, I don't think one would lose very much by playing EXACLTY this way). If you fold everything but TPTK early, don't play draws correctly, never play back at bullys or aren't willing to lay down TPTK early you'll be in serious trouble. Stupidsucker and Lorinda said it best, Aleo's formula is the "starting point" for winning SNG play. "Skill" (or experience) is most definitely needed. Show someone the formula for SNG play who has NEVER played before and show someone the formula with 1,000 SNG's behind them and you see the difference. The experienced player is able to determine when it is appropriate to deviate from the formula and WHO to deviate against.

Pep.

[Gigabet]

I could write a 2 page document that you would never have to deviate from and maintain a 5% ROI in the 215s. The same document would make you a loser in the 55s, or maybe just losing to the rake. Not knowing the rules of poker would make it easier to follow the directions to the letter.

I could write a 1 page document that you would never have to
deviate from that would give you around an 8% roi in the 20s and the 30s, which wouldn't do nearly as well in the 10s.

I suppose aleomagus has already covered the 11 dollar tourneys, but I haven't read it. I don't know how to beat those.

When I play, I never think about any formula, or any strategy concept, i am just deciding whether what the other player has, and trying to make the most +ev decision based on how I think he will respond, or the least -ev decision based on my read.

[Scuba Chuck]

Gigabet, I'm sure we'd all love to see your two page manifesto on the $215s. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Gigabet]

[ QUOTE ]
Gigabet, I'm sure we'd all love to see your two page manifesto on the $215s.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am sure you would.

[Pepsquad]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Gigabet, I'm sure we'd all love to see your two page manifesto on the $215s.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am sure you would.

[/ QUOTE ]

You'd be shocked what I'd be willing to pay for it.

[Gigabet]

[ QUOTE ]
You'd be shocked what I'd be willing to pay for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

20k, with no strings attached, if I am wrong and it doesn't work, then you are out 20k. With the promise of no distribution, of course. Shouldn't be to tough to figure out that if you did distribute, it would be useless in a matter of weeks.

[lacky]

I notice you are talking about how simple it is to beat the $11's, then basicaly implying it isn't really poker. The $11's are about equal to the .5/1 ring limit games. Do you realize how easy it is to beat those games? I could teach my 12 year old to do it. Any type of poker played at it's lowest level against clueless people just having fun becomes a very simple game. Sng's are no different.

Steve

[Pepsquad]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You'd be shocked what I'd be willing to pay for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

20k, with no strings attached, if I am wrong and it doesn't work, then you are out 20k. With the promise of no distribution, of course. Shouldn't be to tough to figure out that if you did distribute, it would be useless in a matter of weeks.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was wrong. I meant to say "I'd be shocked what you want fo it". LOL!

Seriously, I have no doubt it would be worth every penny.

[Oluwafemi]

[ QUOTE ]
it's the formula.

stay tight early. limp in w/speculative hands. if you dont hit top pair or better on the flop, check/fold.

in later rounds, steal blinds if short stacked to survive. and it's up to luck. you will either:
1) steal enuf to barely make ITM
2) win a confrontation and double up to be a medium stack
3) lose a confrontation and be eliminated

There is no poker to be played if you're in push/fold mode.

The only time there is poker to be played is if you are a medium/big stack and another medium/big stack calls your raise. (if a short stack calls your raise, then you have the pot odds to bet/call the rest of his stack no matter what hits on the flop.)

and even at 50+5, I find it rare that a medium/big stack will call a raise from another medium/big stack and actual poker will be played. it'll be either fold or re-raise all-in.

or if they just call your raise, it's a stop and go where they will go all in on the flop. thus still no poker to be played.

To summerize:
1) in early rounds, dont play poker. check/fold if you dont hit top pair or better. no reason to risk your stack for 90 chips.

2) in later rounds, you will be shortstacked if you don't get anything significant in the early rounds. push/fold strategy here.

3) if you win a confrontation, then you become a medium stack. and then there is a slight chance you might play actual poker. imagine that... /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

And what should you do post-flop if they don't do a 'Stop and Go' and you are playing actual poker? it all depends on stack sizes, size of pot, blind sizes, reads, your cards, cards on the board, etc. What, you thought there would be an easy answer to playing poker? /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

henceforth, the reason why the skill factor is questioned. a structure that does'nt allow many oppurtunities to 'play poker' ultimately comes down to pretty much a crapshoot.

yesterday in a $1065 SNG, down to two players, blinds about 250/500, i saw Basisababee go all-in with 5 4o and his opponent Gforce called with A K suited. in the previous hand, Babee had doubled up Gforce when he called Gforce's all-in holding 4 10 (a four was on the flop so he had bottom pair with a medium kicker). Gforce turned up pocket Jacks. anyone can speculate as to what Babee was thinking when he called with bottom pair but he could have simply been on tilt when the next hand got dealt out or still in hyper-agressive mode.
anyways, Babee catches a 5 on the flop and Gforce's A K does'nt get any help. of course that's poker but one can't help but also think this is "crapshoot-let's go all-in-and see what will happen-poker".

[microbet]

I could teach 100 Bangladeshi 12 year olds to do it and make them play 18 hours a day.

Hmm.....

[lacky]

come on, have a heart, 12 hour shifts (7 days a week)

[d1sterbd]

i tried that with the little bastards in my neighborhood.. but then the fat kid through one of my monitors out of the window when someone busted his KK on the river with A2 in a 11 SNG

[assron]

imo the skill in sng comes in making small adjustments to your strategy/formula based on the texture of the table you're playing on. Those few situations that come up where you put in a little extra move, the well timed bluff/semibluff, the tough call that seems loose relative to your overall strategy, knowing when a player is reacting to your past actions and being able to anticipate his adjustment before he makes it, is where you make your ROI swell. Poker is a game of situations involving many many variables, and the skill comes in being able to reduce this equation to one of three possible decisions. Yet sometimes it's more an art than a science. I dont really see the case for SNGs not being "real poker" -- it's as real as can be, and although the flop may not come down, the decisions are often harder because there is no margin for error, weakness, or predictability.

[Michael C.]

OK, one question/comment about the formula and conventional wisdom. Basically I agree with it, but I think if you play too tight early you are missing out on some of the best oppourtunities. I play mostly the 109's and in many tournaments, especially on weekends, you have 2-3 players who are just giving their money away. You can soon tell who they are, especially if they get lucky enough to win a showdown with nothing. They are usually either too passive or too aggressive. So shouldn't you want to play as many pots against them as possible? One of the biggest signs of a true fish is that he doesn't understand that betting 500 into a $60 pot is stupid. And they'll sometimes call off their entire stack if they happen to have the top board pair. So sometimes by putting in 3 or 4 30 bets you can get that guys money, or even two people's money if you have a premium hand. This usually doesn't apply in the 215, but I imagine it would be even more the case in lower levels. Do the rest of you disagree with this?