The Best flop for AK, but am I already beat?

[Scuba Chuck]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t785)
UTG+1 (t785)
MP1 (t700)
MP2 (t1345)
CO (t1305)
Button (t685)
SB (t1630)
Hero (t765)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls t30, UTG+1 calls t30, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t125</font>, Hero calls t95, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds.

Flop: (t310) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t225</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero pays him off, or folds? </font>

I was actually considering folding this before the flop. It was a considerable raise, and I wouldn't know if he had KK or AA. So, what would you do?

[goofball]

barring something really weird all hero's chips are going in the middle.

[gehrig]

Depends on how passive he is. If you put him on AA-JJ, AK before the flop, then you're only behind 40% of the time once the flop hits. If you think he would make a continuation bet there with QQ, then you should push - he's only marginally less likely to have QQ than he is AA, KK and JJ combined.

If you think he would raise with AQ out of position pre-flop, then folding would be a disaster.

[Gramps]

If you fold, quit poker now. Why would you call the raise if you're going to fold this flop? SB is going to bet into you 90%+ of the time regardless of what falls. His flop bet gives about zero information in regards to whether or not he likes this flop. He took the inititative with the PF raise, you called and it's heads up, he led out with a bet. GO TO WAR.

[Scuba Chuck]

Oh, I paid him off, if that's what you're wondering.

I had very strong inkling that I was just giving him my chips. I put him on AA or KK preflop. What sucked for me here, was that I would have felt better pushing if the flop came with just the Ace.

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh, I paid him off, if that's what you're wondering.

I had very strong inkling that I was just giving him my chips. I put him on AA or KK preflop. What sucked for me here, was that I would have felt better pushing if the flop came with just the Ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, if you had a "very strong inkling" that he had AA or KK, you should have insta-clicked "fold" with your AK for another 95 chips. What are you hoping for investing that many chips against that strong a hand? The only way you should be in this hand is if you think this player could make this raise with a variety of worse Aces/underpairs/assortment of other hands on a steal. Your call suggests you think this, otherwise your PF call was awful.

Because you called PF in this hand, the only logical assumtion to make is that you think (based on obseravtion/experience) that the SB could make this PF play with a number of hands Assuming the SB can make this raise with a number of different hands, his lead out bet gives you about zero information on which of those hands he actually has.

So...either fold preflop, or go to war and don't cry the few times you run into a set. If you're doubting you post-flop "pay off," then you have to reconsider your PF play.