Missing the flop with AK and AQ

[wipke11]

Lets you you brought it in for a raise preflop with AK or AQ preflop in middle to late position. You completely miss the flop with no draws but are short handed (3 or less) and in position after the flop. What next...

Scenario 1:
Flop comes uncoordinated. Should you continue to push if it is checked to you or take a free card.

Scenario 2:
Flop comes uncoordinated. Someone bets into you, should you reraise or dump it and wait for the next favorable flop with these cards.

Scenario 3:
The flop comes T/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif Rag/images/graemlins/club.gif. You're 43% to hit either the Q K or A (hopefully they're live) by the river I believe. Someone bets into you, I believe the reraise is the proper play here?

Scenario 4:
Same flop as before only two of the cards are of same suit.

[jackfrost]

Without having the types of player you are up against it's very difficult to answer this question well.


1. Bet, and be prepared to bet on the turn without improving. An uncordinated board and few opponents make this a pot that can be won with a turn bet, and AK unimproved could still be the best hand on the turn.

2. Almost never gonna fold here to a single bet, to make a good decision you would need more information.
If the player might fold to a raise on the flop or he is likely to fold to a turn bet if a K or Q comes off, a flop raise is a good idea.
If the player is a calling station or simply won't lay down top pair on the flop, you are wasting your time with a raise unless you are playing to see the river for free.
If you are against an over agressive player who plays top pair with a rag kicker like it's the nuts a raise here is a costly mistake.

3. Deffinetly raise, you are going to play this hand so you might as well use your posistion and take the lead in hand. I always want the lead in the hand if possible no matter my posistion.

4. Same as three, if i'm gonna play a hand I would like to give myself the best possible chance of winning without improving. If I have the backdoor flush draw my hand is even better. If I don't have any of that suit my raise might knock out the third player and protect me from a back door flush. If the third player calls my 2 small bets cold I can put him on a range of hands depending on what type of player he is.

[K C]

I'm going to throw in here, to give a different perspective /images/graemlins/smile.gif

1. This depends a lot on what you feel your opponents will do here. Betting is often the right play, but you need to be pretty confident that you are either going to take the pot down or get a free card. Otherwise, you're reducing your drawing odds here, and often times reducing enough to make the hand unprofitable. And if someone is slow playing, they may come back over the top, which will have you folding. Or, if someone hits something on the next street and you miss, you've wasted a bet. Even so, if you are pretty sure you can get a free card, it's the way to go.

2. Unless you're putting the better on a bluff, you're going to need the correct odds to call here. Often times, people will chase overcard draws too far. Raising is pretty much out of the question here, unless you're pretty sure your opponent has nothing.

3. You've got better odds here, but you are still an underdog to any pair or better. And your opponent may have better now, or draw to better than a pair. You need to be careful when drawing to overcards generally. Often, people treat these outs at full value, assuming that they will win if hit. Of course this isn't always the case. Simply put, you need a very good reason to raise when you're behind. And even if you are putting your opponent on a bluff, hitting him with a re-raise on the turn would be a better move. You're either beat or he has nothing here, and if he has nothing you don't really care about playing for a free card, especially since it reduces your odds when you're behind.

4. This will have to be played more carefully of course. While we had to worry a bit about hitting one of our overcards and having them stand up, now we've got to worry about our gutshot draw making 3 of the suit. So we really can't count that out. Pretty much the same thing as the last hand, only we've got one less out.

KC
kingcobrapoker.com

[jackfrost]

KC we see this quite a bit differently. If you are up against players that are going to the river regardless of your play than raising or betting will cost you money over time if you play against the odds, but many players will release there hands.

The went to showdown percentage of your opponents is probably the most important statistic when you are deciding how to play in these situations.

It is a much more costly mistake to miss a bet or a raise when you should, than to raise or bet when you shouldn't. Shorterm losses will be outweighed by the long term gain.
Eventho pot odds should dictate a lot of your play you must keep in mind that posistion and aggression are going to win a lot of pots and will easily compensate for the cost of playing aggressively(assuming you apply the aggression at the appropriate times). The texture of the board and your opponents are the most important factors when you miss with AK and AQ. Edit: Your table image may play a large role in this also.

1. When a pot is 3way your chances of winning unimproved increase dramatically and with an uncordinated board your chances just got even better. Not betting on the flop here in posistion is a sin in my book. A flop bet probably won't win the pot here, but you need to keep the lead and give yourself a good chance to win on the turn. By not betting you pretty much just gave up the pot to a weak hand or to an aggressive player if you don't improve. Turn bets shorthanded win a lot of pots when no one has shown strentgh on the flop or if a scare card hits the board (a scare card that a pf raiser would be holding). Thats why I would immediately bet the turn if I think I will take down enough pots to be profitable, if the turn coordinated the board than the free card becomes more favorable. The turn bet may not win the majority of the time but forntunately it doesn't have to for you to turn a profit.
I wouldn't worry about the other players slow playing, if they hit you with a check raise you simply fold(assuming it's the correct play). Gaining information in a hand can save you a lot of money. If they slow play and you never bet, but hit your hand on the river it will cost near the same amount as if you tried to make them fold but they knocked you out of the hand early.

2. I do agree that overcards are weaker draws than what you would count them as(I think sklansky says count them as half outs in big pots), the more people in the pot the less valuable they become. He is getting the odds to call unless its a very passive player leading whom normally doesn't lead into the raiser. Than you can easily dump this hand off on the flop.
This gets much more complex whenever there is a tight player with 89s in the bb who hits top pair 9 and leads. Now if you call this bet and the turn brings an overcard that misses he should bet again causing you to fold. By calling on the flop your chances of seeing the river are very slim. But if you raised on the flop he is going to have a hard time calling your turn bet since you already represented a better hand than his pair and he no longer holds top pair. That 1/2 a bet you invest can often lead to you winning several big bets.
I deffinetly don't raise every time here but doing it when the conditions are favorable will turn a profit.

[illguitar]

1) You are looking at a hand that could be the best at the moment, you have position till the end, and you have 7-1 odds of hitting either a A or K in a pot that is almost 8-1. Bet. Nearly everytime.

2) A reraise is often in order here, although you must be aware of your opponents possible holdings. If he might be pushing A, TP then you could be in trouble. This is a likely holding. Calling and folding are also options here. This depends on your feelings of your opponents. Situational hand.

3) This is a definite reraise almost all of the time. Not because you will hit 43% of the time by the river, but rather because you are 5-1 to hit on the turn with 8-1 or 9-1 pot odds, depending on the other caller.

4) Another reraise because you are 6-1, accounting for the flush cards to hit, and the pot is 8 or 9-1

Note: All of these assumes three players, with both competitors acting before the hero.

[flavaham]

It's impossible to say what is the correct play without knowing the players in the game. In the first case, I'd say bet out, but what are the odds that I'm facing a check-raise? In that case, I should take a free card.
In the second, I say dump it unless you're against a maniac who could have a small piece of the board (in which case I might consider a raise).
In the third case, consider your effective odds over the turn and river, plus your opponent, and...it still really depends. Bottom line for me is, know who you're up against. I know that is the popular answer, but there is a reason for that. I think there should be more posts about figuring out who your opponents are and there would be less questions like this. Maybe I'll start one now...
-g /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Lets you you brought it in for a raise preflop with AK or AQ preflop in middle to late position. You completely miss the flop with no draws but are short handed (3 or less) and in position after the flop. What next...

Scenario 1:
Flop comes uncoordinated. Should you continue to push if it is checked to you or take a free card.

Scenario 2:
Flop comes uncoordinated. Someone bets into you, should you reraise or dump it and wait for the next favorable flop with these cards.

Scenario 3:
The flop comes T J Rag. You're 43% to hit either the Q K or A (hopefully they're live) by the river I believe. Someone bets into you, I believe the reraise is the proper play here?

Scenario 4:
Same flop as before only two of the cards are of same suit.

[/ QUOTE ]

This looks like a NL game. Is this a tournament? If so, chip stacks matter as well. As well as some other tournament aspects like bubble, etc.

[Piers]

The important thing to realise is that against one or two opponents AK is a favorate on the flop against the opponets range of hands. Therefore when you bet the flop you are betting for value not as a bluff.

[MrMoo]

Like others have said, a lot depends on your opponents.

A couple of things I think about when I deal with AK:

-- Against smart, aware opponents, a check raise may get you a free card on future hands that you raise. Plus a check raise usually indicates a very strong hand which some will take for a high pocket pair.

-- Most low limit players don't understand being dominated. Many won't put you on AA or KK and they'll chase with their Ax or Kx thinking they'll win if they catch it. They are there to play and will convince themselves that they can win.

-- The flop is a small bet and many unexperienced players will call small bet but will fold to a big bet on the turn.

-- Identify the callers. Don't try to bluff someone who is going to call you down regardless.

[Dov]

[ QUOTE ]
It is a much more costly mistake to miss a bet or a raise when you should, than to raise or bet when you shouldn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand what you are trying to say here.

Miss a bet or raise = -1 BB
bet or raise inappropriately = -1 BB

Why is missing the bet worse? If anything, being aggressive is usually better because of the 2 ways in which you can win the pot.

Dov

[Paul2432]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It is a much more costly mistake to miss a bet or a raise when you should, than to raise or bet when you shouldn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand what you are trying to say here.

Miss a bet or raise = -1 BB
bet or raise inappropriately = -1 BB

Why is missing the bet worse? If anything, being aggressive is usually better because of the 2 ways in which you can win the pot.

Dov

[/ QUOTE ]

You answered your own question. Not betting when you should bet can cost you the pot if you give your opponent a free card that beats you when he would have folded.

Paul