odds question

[Greenthumb]

ih holdem, after the turn with 4 outs to the best hand, i know you are 10.5to1. are the odds the same after the flop when considering only the turn card? is it close enough that you can assume 10.5to1? thanks.
Love,
Greenthumb

[binions]

[ QUOTE ]
ih holdem, after the turn with 4 outs to the best hand, i know you are 10.5to1. are the odds the same after the flop when considering only the turn card? is it close enough that you can assume 10.5to1? thanks.
Love,
Greenthumb

[/ QUOTE ]

You know you are 10.5:1 with 4 outs and the river to come?

Then you should know you are 10.75:1 to hit one of your 4 outs on the turn.

See why?

[Greenthumb]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ih holdem, after the turn with 4 outs to the best hand, i know you are 10.5to1. are the odds the same after the flop when considering only the turn card? is it close enough that you can assume 10.5to1? thanks.
Love,
Greenthumb

[/ QUOTE ]

You know you are 10.5:1 with 4 outs and the river to come?

Then you should know you are 10.75:1 to hit one of your 4 outs on the turn.

See why?

[/ QUOTE ]
no i dont. does the fact that there are 47 unseen cards as apposed to 46 make that much of a difference? i dont know the math behind these odds. maybe i should have posted this in the begginers forum, but do you mind explaining?
Love,
Greenthumb

[slavic]

47 cards 4 of them help you

good Bad
4 : 43

divide by 4

1 : 10.75

To improve on the river

4 : 42
1 : 10.5

So does that little quarter odd mean much? You betcha.

[Greenthumb]

[ QUOTE ]
47 cards 4 of them help you

good Bad
4 : 43

divide by 4

1 : 10.75

To improve on the river

4 : 42
1 : 10.5

So does that little quarter odd mean much? You betcha.

[/ QUOTE ]
wow thats simple i feel retarded.
thank you.
Love,
Greenthumb

[einbert]

The practical answer to this is, yes, it's close to the same.

You can do the math to see that:
on the turn
4/47 = 8.51% == 10.75-1 to hit
on the river
4/46 = 8.70% == 10.5-1 to hit

But in practical application, in limit poker if you're getting 10-1 and closing the odds on your gutshot straight draw (and all four of your outs are to the nuts), it's a +EV play to call. You'll nearly always make up the extra 1/2 - 3/4 of a bet on later streets.

The only time the difference between these numbers really would make a difference is if you have to go all in in a NL cash game. Other than all-in situations, the implied odds of situations like this (in addition to the fact that you're not ALWAYS drawing live) make the math more fuzzy than needing exactly 10.75-1 from the pot for a call. In fact, it's correct to call with a gutshot with only 8-1 if your opponents will consistently pay you off for more than the remaining 2.5 bets on average when you make your draw.