Do you ever fold this river?

[DiceyPlay]

Commerce 9/18. I'm running bad - down about 20 bigbets in about 4 hours. The lineup is your usual mix of mostly loose passive non indepth thinking opponents. There are a couple of solids and one or two mediums. Two 2+2ers are on my immediate left.

I'm in the cutoff with Ac7c. I don't remeber the specific action but the big blind raised. There were 14 small bets in the pot when the flop came. The big blind is mostly weak-tight. He's not making any moves, he's just waiting for the cards. His chips are stacked nicely in 4 columns each with a $1 chip on top of about 40 $3 chips.

So there's 14 small bets in the pot and I have Ac7c in the CO seat. The flop comes 985r. Big blind bets and there are 5 callers including me with my top overcard and a gutshot straight draw.

The turn is an 8. Big blind bets, there's 1 caller to me. I call getting 13:1 on my 5.5 outer.

The river is a 9. Board is 58899 and I have an ace. Big blind bets.

I think he's got a big pocket pair, but how can I be better then 93% sure? There's 14 big bets in the pot. Do I ever fold?


Results later if anyone's intersted.

-DP

[BarronVangorToth]

Assuming the 8 on the turn wasn't the second club for your 4-flush, why not just fold the turn...?

On the river, I'm assuming the other guy folded and now there's the problem -- you want to stay in with the nut nothing.

Maybe he has the busted draw -- but probably he's just milking another bet out of you, given the description.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com (http://www.BarronVangorToth.com)

[steveyz]

Or he's chopping with an higher Ax

[sam h]

Given that you are realistically just hoping for a chop and not a scoop this fold isn't too hard against a player with this profile.

[DiceyPlay]

Hi Barron,

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming the 8 on the turn wasn't the second club for your 4-flush, why not just fold the turn...?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because there's 12 bets in the pot giving me the pot odds call with only a gutshot (I doubt he's filled up) and I've also better then just a gutter - I've got the highest possible overcard. I don't recall if the board was a 2 flush at that time. I tend to think it was. But I think a large pocket pair is far more likely for this opponent then suited cards. He's the type that will see the flop for free with a hand that needs help if given the chance. Of course there was another guy in the pot at that time and who knows what he's got????

[ QUOTE ]
On the river, I'm assuming the other guy folded and now there's the problem -- you want to stay in with the nut nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, the other guy had folded the river. I was looking for a reason to fold the entire hand. But the pot odds wouldn't let me on the flop and turn. On the river, I think the worst possible card came - making me cry and call.

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe he has the busted draw -- but probably he's just milking another bet out of you, given the description.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't think he was on a draw. He bet without hesitation every time he had the chance - no milking. Like I said, he was weak-tight, but thinking too. Just not doing anything with what he's thinking about. He was waiting for cards and on this hand he got them. That was my impression during the hand.

[DiceyPlay]

Good point. I didn't think about it like that; I was realistically looking to chop at best on the end. That makes a fold much more attractive. Now I only need to be ~85% certain he has an overpair. But is a crying call still warrated?

Ed Miller makes the point that it's only one more bet on the end and folding when you should call is the most catastrophic mathmetical error of them all. He says even if you think there's VERY little chance of having the best hand, you should call on the end.

In this case, I close the action and it's 8:1 if I chop and 16:1 if I win ==> he has 77, 66, KQ <---- probability approaching 0 on all those.

[BarronVangorToth]

Ed's got a point obviously, and once you call the turn you're obviously committing yourself almost to call the river with the nut-nothing, which is still why I go back to the turn and think that this isn't the best call, given that if there is a 2-flush that isn't to yours, you have even fewer clean outs, not to mention this board can't be much more coordinated. Given the flop action, I think the fold on the turn is warranted. HOWEVER, if you were set to go with this holding and that flop, you probably should've raised the flop to get to the river for free.

A lot also depends on precisely what kind of guy you were up against but against most with the basic description you're giving, isn't this over-pair most times or all sorts of boats?

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com (http://www.BarronVangorToth.com)

[onegymrat]

[ QUOTE ]
The big blind is mostly weak-tight. He's not making any moves, he's just waiting for the cards.

[/ QUOTE ]
If your take on BB is correct, then for him NOT to have a better hand than you would be impossible. Therefore, a fold is in order.

[me454555]

I raise the flop. The pot is huge and you might be able to get a free card and a nice read on BB. He's weak tight and not making moves. If he 3 bets, he's got a big pair, if he calls, he's got overs.

If he does 3 bet, theres a good chance your ace is good his 3bet might eliminate a better ace as well.

[elysium]

hi dicey

it sounds as hough there were opponents left to act on your left on the flop, but i'm not sure.

the call on the flop is no good anyway dicey. stay away from these. i know it looks like you're getting correct, but actually the number of opponents in there works heavily against you. if you had a gut-shot draw to go with your overcard, or a club working on board with your overcard and one card draw, then you could call.

the action, assuming you are closing it, is favorable for a call with the right hand. the hand posted might look like it qualifies, but it's a muck on the flop. these situations are also not good due to the 'good money after bad' thinking that develops as you go into squeeze mode trying to squeeze you hand into the math against the odds. you think 'well, i squeezed it into a flop call, now if i compress it a little more, i can fit it into the turn, and maybe river too.'. not good.

did you win? yeah you won dicey. you got lucky. fold these on the flop. it looks like you have something there, but no.

[me454555]

On the flop he's got a gutshot in addition to his A, why would you fold that for 1 bet in a big pot?

[DiceyPlay]

Thanks for all the replies. I'm glad I posted this hand. I thought it was more clear cut and that I played it correctly - wrong. I should have raised the flop - I was last to act. I definitely start playing timidly when running bad /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Big Blind had KK and took it down.

[elysium]

hi me

i know that is what it looks like, but no. that's not a gutshot. it's a one card inside draw. if it was a true gutshot, when it completes it wouldn't be so obvious. the implied odds are one of the reasons gutshots are sometimes worth the effort. this is a one card draw inside draw. although even with runner, runner backdoor flush potential on the flop, the call, or worse, raise is borderline at best with all those opponents in there. if it sounds like a simple extra backdoor out doesn't really matter, well, it doesn't. it comes to about 1.5 outs in the grand scheme of things. it just barely makes this hand ev+ by about 0.05%. if that comes to a shiny thin post silver years dime in a 20-40, i will kiss my wallet if not my [self censored; beat you to it matt].

[oneeyedjackz]

you should have folded long ago to evade these types of situations.