Pot Equity (some help please)

[djshawk]

I've been playing about 4 months. Read TOP & SSH twice. Still hovering about in the Party .5/$1.

One of the biggest topics I don't think i'm 100% comfortable with is pot equity, so I've come on here to ask if one of you guru's would explain it to me. I'm about 90% there with it but something is still not quite right, which makes me pay little attention to it when playing my hands. Clearly bad.

So... If someone wants to help me out I'd be most appreciative /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[elmitchbo]

i'm not an expert here, but i'm going to take a stab. pot equity and pot odds are closely related. it sounds like you probably have a good grip on pot odds. pot odds are used to decide if you should call a bet with your draw. pot equity is used to decide if you should bet out or raise for value with your draw.

example.... you have ATs. there's a raise before the flop and you call, along with 4 others. 5 players see the flop and we have 10sb in the pot. you flop your flush draw.

pot odds tell you that you should call a bet here, because you're about 4 to 1 to make the draw and getting 11 to 1 or better on your money. pot equity is just a little different. with 5 players you would be contributing 20% of the money in the pot, but you have a 35% chance to hit the flush. that gives you a 15% equity edge, so every dollar that goes in the pot makes you 15% more than your fair share. in this situation pot equity says you should raise to get money in the pot.

with four people in the pot you would be 25% of the money in the pot. with the same flush draw you would have a 10% equity edge. with 3 people in the pot you would be about even... 33% share with a 35% chance to hit the draw. did that make sense?

[comstock]

so if you have pot equity edge here, ie. you're contributing less than 35% (your out odds) you should raise, if contributing equal or lesser percent but the pot odds are still there to call, then just call?

one thing - what if you're first to act and fairly sure most of the other 4 guys won't call the raise, still the right move to raise?

[JackWilson]

Your pot equity is equal to the estimated chance you have of winning the hand * the money in the pot. So in the example above:
35% * 10sb = 3.5 Pot Equity.

What does this mean? In order to calculate the correct action, take the number of bets you are considering putting in the pot and subtract it from your pot equity. In this situation, it would be correct to raise, since 3.5 - 2.0 = 1.5. If the subtraction leaves you with a number less than 0 the action is incorrect. E.g

Same situation as above, except there are only 4sb in the pot. Now
35% * 4sb = 1.4

This would make it correct to call but not raise.

However, your percentage chance of winning the hand is the weak link in all these calculations. Since you cannot do any better than guess at your opponent's future actions and hand, you cannot determine your winning percentage accurately.

For example, in the smaller pot above (4sb) a raise would often be correct if you thought there was a chance of your opponent folding on the turn. Let's say you raise, and the bettor calls, all others fold. This means there are 7sb in the pot on the turn, and your opponent checks to you. You still haven't made your flush. Right now, your pot equity is:
19% * 3.5bb = 0.665

This clearly does not make a bet for value correct considering only this. However, if you feel the chances of your opponent folding are 4-1 against, you would be correct in betting.

4:1 = 20% + 19% chance of winning with flush. Adding percentages this gives us 35.2% chance of winning the hand. Now our pot equity is:
35.2% * 3.5bb = 1.232

This dictates betting.

[comstock]

got it. I had been using out odds vs pot odds all the time when determining whether to go after a draw, but had NEVER taken into account pot equity and raised when applicable.

So now I take my out odds x pot size, and if that equity is greater than what a raise would be I should raise instead of calling...

[binions]

[ QUOTE ]
Your pot equity is equal to the estimated chance you have of winning the hand * the money in the pot. So in the example above:
35% * 10sb = 3.5 Pot Equity.

What does this mean? In order to calculate the correct action, take the number of bets you are considering putting in the pot and subtract it from your pot equity. In this situation, it would be correct to raise, since 3.5 - 2.0 = 1.5. If the subtraction leaves you with a number less than 0 the action is incorrect. E.g

Same situation as above, except there are only 4sb in the pot. Now
35% * 4sb = 1.4

This would make it correct to call but not raise.


[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree that you raise every time your pot eqity > # of bets you are about to put in, and call every time your pot equity < # of bets you are about to put in.

Example 1

Say you have T9 hearts in the BB. The cutoff limps, as does the button. The SB folds and you check (3.5 small bets).

Flop is Ah3h6c. You check, the cutoff bets, and the button calls. The action is on you (5.5 small bets).

35% x 5.5 = 1.92 < 2. Your approach says call, but clearly you should raise. In fact, the only reason you checked was to check raise. You are putting 33% of the money on the round, and are getting 35% return on the money put in on that round.

(OK maybe you should have bet out on the flop, this example is a little contrived, but the same numbers apply if you were the button with T9s on the same flop, and the BB bet and CO called - 1 bet to you)

Example 2

You are on the button with no pair or overcards, but a gutshot and flush draw with one card to come (12 outs = 26%). 2 other players on the turn. The first player had bet, the second called, and now it's one bet to you. 10 big bets in the pot.

Your analysis says raise (26% x 10 = 2.6 > 2), but you are putting 33% of the money in on the round, and only expect to get back 26% of that round's money, so clearly you can't raise. In fact, you are losing money on every bet that goes in that round.

The chance you will hit your draw multiplied by the size of the pot will give you an idea of what "equity" you lose if you fold. When your pot equity > 1 bet and it is 1 bet to call, you should not fold. When the equity is < 1, you should fold to one bet. When the equity is > 2 bets, you should call a raise. When it is < 2 bets, you should not cold call a raise. This is just an alternate method of comparing pot odds to the odds of hitting one of your outs.

However, this process does not tell you about raising.

Rather, you should raise for equity when your % chance of hitting your draw is > the % of money you are putting in on that particular round (compared to the other players).

Example:

If you have 15 outs on the flop (54%), you can raise even if you have one player. You are putting in 50% of the money on that round, and expect to get 54% of it back.

Note, if you miss the turn, your 15 outs is now 32.6%, and you cannot raise for pot equity, because you are putting 50% of the money in that round, and only expect 32.6% of it back.

All of that said, there are other reasons to raise besides equity, of course.

[JackWilson]

Binions - Agreed. I oversimplified things. That is just the basic gist of the theory and it serves in the majority of cases.