Update on my party points

[MicroBob]

2 PM's and one post in less than an hour asking me how it's going so I thought I'd start a thread where it would be easy to fine.


Things are progressing MUCH better than expected.

4.8k points first day.
I estimate 8k points on the recently finished 2nd day (midnight eastern). It didn't get updated until 7 or 8am yesterday so I'm expecting I won't know for certain my day 2 score until that time.

So...that's almost 13k points after 2 days.

I'm feeling REALLY good today (after some really hard sleep) and think 9k today and another 9k Friday is extremely realistic.
Meaning I'll be in position to get 30k points before midnight Friday (and I will do some much deserved drinking and going out at that time).


Hands come MUCH faster than I originally projected.
Almost 4k hands in the 10 hours of happy-hours.
yup...400 hands an hour on 4 tables.
Figure 3800 of these are raked-hands and that's 6840 points during happy hours. Another 2k hands during non-happy hours is 1800 points giving me 8600 in a given day and 2 more REALLY long days should get me there.


That's an awful lot obviously...but I would really like to be able to wrap this up as quickly as possible.


It doesn't seem clear when I'm supposed to submit my claim. Do I have to wait for my account screen to be updated and SHOW that I have 30k....or can I just submit my claim when I think I got there and then they can look at it when it all gets updated?


Looks like I'll send another e-mail to clarify.


as many have pointed out, it's probably a moot point anyway.
I now think I have a 10% chance or less of getting one of these things.
But hopefully I'll have a 1-2BB/100 win-rate for my 20k some-odd hands that I play and will then take a few days off (mardi-gras in New Orleans next Sunday and Monday...yes, I think I'll be there).


I played horribly yesterday because I was so tired....and because I'm still learning the 10/20 6-max game.
but mostly because I was squinting at the screen for my final few hours and was REALLY struggling.

But I'm still ahead money-wise since I started doing this and am doing much better today after getting really good rest...and catching some cards....although as I type this my AA just lost a bunch to QQ, but since he caught his Q on the flop it wasn't so bad. we capped PF and flop...but I just called him down on turn and river when he kept coming at me.
That's a hand that in my bleary-eyed state yesterday I might have lost another BB or 2 on just keeping on the gas without actually THINKING (novel concept).

just now had A6s on board of 2345 and the other ace paid me off rather nicely. Woo-hoo!! I'm up 55BB's on that table...and that's the one where I lost with AA earlier.



Anyway, thanks for all the support gang.
would be really fun if I got this thing although I don't think it's going to happen.

Thanks for all the requests asking 'hows it coming along?'
I thought it would just be easier to post my update here instead of responding individually.

[jasonHoldEm]

GL bob. I want a postcard if you get on the boat.

[TheMetetron]

You know, your girlfriend may be pretty and all... but wouldn't you rather have a 20-something 2+2er with you on the trip? It's a POKER cruise after all...

No? Damn I tried....

Anyways, gl with it man and hopefully it works out for you. I, too, expect a postcard.

[HesseJam]

[ QUOTE ]
It doesn't seem clear when I'm supposed to submit my claim. Do I have to wait for my account screen to be updated and SHOW that I have 30k....or can I just submit my claim when I think I got there and then they can look at it when it all gets updated?


[/ QUOTE ]

Bob, I suggest that you play it safe because you never know how exactly the sort-out process of the 20 hands with Party will be.

I would send a claim right away right now. Always state that you went for the 30K just by playing hands.
The next mail I would send right AFTER the most recent update AT the day you think you will clear the 30K.
Then, I would send one as soon as you think you have made it.
One further mail 30 minutes later, when you can be sure that you've made it and
the last one immediately after you can proof via an updated points balance that you've made it.

Stating all the time that you will achieve the 30K through playing might warm their heart a bit in case there is going to be an uproar (and there will be one!) that everybody has just made it by RAFs on the first day. I could remotely imagine that they reserve a couple of seats for those who just played.

Party has a couple of options to deal with the fact that they might piis some of their high roller players off if it is dicovered that nobody had a chance after the first day because of the RAFs:

- keep everything in the dark and just notify the 20 winners after 7 days. Sending an e-mail to everybody else that they were unfortunately late combined with some advertising of the next exciting promotions.

- put a list on the lobby of who has won a seat

- including when they qualified for the 30K

- including how they qualified.

- Announcing a change of the award rules before or after the seven days discounting all/ part of the RAF points or reserving half of the seats for play throughers only. Somehow, my bet would go to alternative 1. But you never know...

[MicroBob]

actually my GF would be unable to make it.

They don't know it yet but there are a couple of friends of mine who I would invite if I got it.
If they couldn't do it (very likely...since most people DO have jobs afterall) I might see if my Dad was interested.


Obviously not going to worry about who I'm inviting until I actually win the damn thing though.



You guys wanting post-cards...are you sure you REALLY want me to have your home-address??


I can see the headline now:

"Nerdy Poker Playing Stalking Meets His 'Targets' on the Internet"

[TheMetetron]

Alright, well I still want to be like 110th on the list for the cruise /images/graemlins/wink.gif And yes, I seriously want a damn postcard so I can stare at it in envy...

Seriously, good luck /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Stupendous_Man]

GL, MB! You can leave me off the postcard list... would be afraid your cat might show up! /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[solucky]

wish you good luck. I would definetely have a heart attack on the 10/20 tables:)

[Baulucky]

GL Bob. I don't want a post-card. I just want to see you won the damn thing.

[Bellagibro]

I'm rooting for you Bob. I just hope Party doesn't screw you in the end.

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm rooting for you Bob. I just hope Party doesn't screw you in the end.

[/ QUOTE ]

Party won't screw him because he will not be one of the first people to accumulate that many points.

[Hung]

Hey Bob,

You must be playing a lot of hands. All the points I have come from deposits. I got 1000 points for depositing $1000.
Do you actually have to play to get 30K points?


gl,
Hung

[sfwusc]

GL.

They should give you the trip for creating that much rake /images/graemlins/smile.gif

SWUSC

[Dangergirl]

GL Bob and I hope you get on this cruise!! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Adde]

Hey Bob. You still seem to manage your high posting quota, despite working your bottoms off. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

If not for earning 30k points, you deserve to win it for your qualitative (and quantitative) posting history.

Good luck!

Adde

[MicroBob]

Okay all -

Recently woke-up and am ready to plug away until 1pm (central) tomorrow). Still getting myself moving and rubbing the sleep out of my eyes.

Day 1 - 4800 pts (approx)
Day 2 - 7992 pts (not quite to my estimate of 8k...but I'll take it)

So I have officially a total of 12828 points after 2 days.
Day 3 is over in less than an hour.
I got a ton of hands in during the happy hours...possibly more than on Day 2.
And obviously a few hands outside the Happyhours period.


I'm hoping for 8.2k points for day 3 which would put me at 21k total and in position to have a REALLY massive Friday for 9k points I could wrap it up by 11p (central..which is midnight eastern obviously).


So...if I can get there after only 4 days I should have a shot (although probably not a huge one obviously).

I've been seeing one player specifically on a LOT of my tables during odd hours, etc who I suspect might be trying to get this too. He might be a 2+2'er as he has really good stats.


I'm not up as much as I would like after so many hands...but I am up, which is better than down, so I'm not complaining.
I know I have been costing myself BB's when I've been really tired...
"oh....did he raise??"
"i have top-pair...oh goodie. Oh wait the board is A8574 on the board...I didn't see that a 6 would give him the straight, i need to slow-down. Hang on again...I'm holding a 6 so I have the straight, didn't see that!!"

That last hand and thought-process actually happened by the way. "crap...be afraid of the straight...no wait...I have the straight."


My pokertracker databases are kind of split up now but I'm guessing around 20k hands for the 4days or so.
I've continued to get near 400 hds/hr per 4 tables.

I don't know what the average rake is on 10/20 6-max....but if we assume $0.33/hr ($2 rake divided by 6 players) then for 20k hands that's $6600 in rake Party has suckered out of me playing this.

golly.
Amazing to think that if they made the tables rake-free I could just fork over $3k to them at the beginning of the week and actually do BETTER on the deal.


Obviously this isn't ALL cruise-related. I would have played SOME hands during the week anyway and would have paid rake on those.
and I like how I was able to use this thing to motivate myself to play more.
My previous struggles where I would procrastinate sitting at the tables and would just wax philosophic on 2+2 on my blog instead of just getting in 1k hands in a day seems kind of silly now.

In just 4 tables I can get in 1k hands in a hard 2.6 hours.
At 2BB/100 that's $400/day....or $2k/wk for around 3 hours of work a day X 5 days.


Anyway, yes...party certainly profited handsomely off of me.

Another hypothetical...there's no way I would have played this many hands if it weren't for the promotion.
I'm going to admit something really stupid about myself right now that I was reluctant to do before...but in the sake of honesty here goes:


I currently have no rake-back on party...whereas I get 22.5% on Empire.
If my previous estimate of paying $6600 in rake for my 20k hands is accurate then I would have gotten back $1485 in rake if I had paid all these hands on Empire.

Since I estimate my chances of getting the $12k package to be about 10% that roughly makes it even EV for me.

Essentially,

I'm 'spending' the $1400 that I WOULD have gotten in rake-back on a skin for a 10% chance at a $12k prize-package.
So from that perspective this whole exercise definitely feels kind of silly.

but...it is also kind of moot because there's no way I could have been motivated to do all this without the pacific waters calling me.



BTW - i received a PM from someone who says they got a hold of an 'insider' there who assures him that not all 20 of the seats have been claimed yet.

It seems there's a lot of gossip going on that they've ALL been taken...they were all taken on the first day...they still probably have a couple available...etc etc.

I don't get it. I don't think there's much chance that anybody on here really knows if they are still available or not so it's kind of ridiculous to speculate.



Along with all the posts in the threads I have also received several PM's and comments in my blog wishing me good luck on this.
I was kind of reluctant to admit that I was going to try for this because I KNEW it was kind of stupid...and I KNEW that everyone here KNEW it was kinda stupid.
but the support I've received has been fantastic and has probably helped keep me going.

[IggyWH]

Hope the good luck keeps up with you Bob. My main reason for making my Party is Stupid post was because I was pissed knowing you were going for this and would probably get screwed out of it.

Hope once you hit your 30k Party finds a spot for you on the cruise!

[Shoe]

Good luck! I hope you get it today (Friday). BTW, where is your blog?

[liquidboss]

Keep it up Bob, I'm rooting for ya. Don't listen to the rumors going around that all 20 spots are taken, they were probably started by other multi-tablers trying to get others to drop out.

[MicroBob]

I haven't been updating it as much lately...but there's plenty of slightly older content.

bobspokerblog.blogspot.com

[MicroBob]

depositing this week for the points won't work because they don't give you the points until you leave the money in there for 7 days.
Thus, if you deposited at the beginning of the week for the points they wouldn't give you the points until after the qualifying period is completed.


You don't HAVE to play all the hands to get the points.
you can also get points by refer-a-friend.
It's being widely speculated that some people are setting up 23 people with new accounts...getting them to play the 125 raked-hands necessary to clear the bonus..and getting their 30k points that way.

some people think that 20 people would have already done this on the first day of the promotion and that all the seats are already gone. I was too deep into starting when I considered that this was actually a possibility.....and I just somehow have been able to keep momentum going throughout.

Others are speculating that 'teams' are getting together and are playing 24-hours a day on the same account..obviously working in shifts.


I don't know if the seats are still available or not.

but I do think that if I can wrap it up in 4 days (by midnight friday) I should have an outside shot.

[MicroBob]

I agree sponger.
the only way I could argue I got 'screwed' by this is if they allow some of the less 'legitimate' 23 RAF sign-up folks to take a seat over me.
and even then I don't know if I have much cause to be that angry about it...it's party's promotion, party's rules, party's decision.

Whether or not they choose to allow some of those is up to them...and they clearly state that it's the decision is entirely up to them ahead of time.

I agree I probably won't get it.

[Hung]

I hope you really get one.
At least your're really going for it without cheating.

Say hi to Shana Hiatt if she's on the cruise /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[MicroBob]

Okay - here's the latest...

If I play straight up until 11p (central) I put myself at about 50/50 chance (maybe barely better) to have the 30k points.

It is VERY possible that I'll fall just a little bit short today. I think I accumulated slightly fewer happy-hours hands...and every time I look to a table where I folded it seems everyone else is folding to a raise so the hand isn't being raked...Arrrrgh!! Don't these people know I'm on a mission?


Won't know until if I got the points or not until they update the page around 9a tomorrow.
If I fall 7 points short or something I'll be pissed!!
Because that extra day to get the final 7 points could be the difference.

Anyway...hope I get there...but it should be REALLY close either way.

[GrannyMae]

i'm just getting caught up on this.

we could have provided some zoo ringers while you slept as our way of sending you to the wsop.

plenty of trustworthy people here to have fouund some ringers, and a password change after just to make sure and you would have been set on a 12k trip.

http://www.anchoredbygrace.com/smileys/plane5.gif

[The4Aces]

i am guessing no one gets it.

[MicroBob]

I had an offer from someone I completely trusted to help me out.
Was going to do it too...but there's been so much talk of people referring 23 friends on the first day and possibly no seats left anyway...stuff like that.

as well as the 24-hour teams that are ahead of me.


Anyway...I was thinking of letting the other guy play when he was free while I slept. But we tend to play at the same times sometimes at the same limits....
Once he plays on my account then we can't play at the same table...which at first I thought was a GOOD thing.
but then I considered that he plays 6-8 tables and I play 6-8 tables and during the late-night hours that REALLY hurts your table-selection.

Once we discussed it some more we decided it was kind of silly for him to boost my numbers by a few hours for what still a very slim chance of getting the cruise when we consider that it SERIOUSLY hampers both of our party and skin table-selection fo rthe rest of our party playing lives.


There's also the slim possibility that the extra play he provides on my acct from a different computer (in a different state) actually gets noticed by party and I get disqualified on a technicality when I actually would have made it otherwise.
I think this is very unlikely to happen though and I wasn't too afraid of it.


anyway...I might have done it had it not been for the table-selection problems long-term...
but now, if I actually DO get it by some miracle I can feel good that it was 100% legitimate.

[MicroBob]

In less than an hour I'll be done with this thing.

will be getting a MUCH needed shower and then will be DRINKING!!!!
It is the weekend afterall...and I've heard rumors that there is an entire world out there.


Good news is that my GF is going to get a job at a different hospital (she's a nurse). It looks she might be turning in her 2-week notice next week. She can start her new job whenever she wants so if I get the cruise she'll simply delay her start.


I needed 8964 points today to reach 30k.
My best estimates put me at around 9000-9050 so I'll be cutting it REALLY close. As I said earlier, I think I'm barely better than a 50-50 shot to finish just on the + side of 30k.

won't know until the updates tomorrow morning.



My hands are split into a couple different databases right now...but I have 17k hands of 10/20 6-max this week in one of them at about 0.35BB/100 for about $1100 or so.

I was making SO many mistakes in there that it's pretty much a miracle I did even that well I think.
when i was tired I was postiviely BLEEDING BB's.


I was probably +3.5BB/100 when I was alert and sharp...and was probably -3BB/100 when I was exhausted and chasing WAY too much.


I was hoping for 1BB/100 or better and it was a realistic goal imo if I had adopted a strategy where I would stop imagining +EV chases that just don't exist during my tired periods. Basically, I needed to play tighter when tired and I didn't do that consistently enough.


But I didn't lose money in this thing playing a limit I'm brand new to so I'm reasonably content with that.

I'll be far more content if I actually get that cruise by some miracle.

[CCass]

GL Bob, I hope you get the cruise and your GF gets the new job so that she can go also.

[KingMedicine]

if they dont give you a cruise package, i am going to write a letter to them on your behalf threatening to boycott the site, with your permission. i cant imagine more than 20 people have put in the sweat you have.

[ChosenOne]

Hi MicroBob,
I have been following your posts about your party points. I am trying to win the cruise as well. I have been playing 4 games round the clock sinse Feb 1st barely getting any sleep. Just wanted to say good luck. I think I have enough points by now but am waiting till it updates on the website to confirm. What a stupid system they have with updating these points so early in the morning. As well, I'm not sure when I am supposed to send in my email telling them that I have enough points. Now? or when its updated online?

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
i cant imagine more than 20 people have put in the sweat you have.

[/ QUOTE ]


possibly not putting more sweat perhaps. But I can definitely see 20 people beating me to it anyway.


I got less than 5k points on my first day because I only played the final 7 hours of the happy hours...and then that evening went out with the GF from about 5p-1a (central).
I got a decent head-start since I knew about it right when it was announced...but I pretty much balanced that out by getting in zero play that evening.

My points breakdown is
Day 1 - 4836
Day 2 - 7992
Day 3 - 8208
Total - 21036

Day 4 is hopefully 9000 but there's a very good chance I came up short.


If I did make it to 30k somehow (I'm awake now because I'm waiting for the accts page to update...which I determined is how it needs to be done) then I've got a good chance.

But I can see how someone could get 10k points for each of 3 days if they REALLY put in some hard hours.

I also don't know if the 10/20 and 15/30 BBJ tables will accumulate points significantly faster than 10/20 6-max (obviously more points on the BBJ...but not as many hands). If they do then it would be even more realistic to think someone could get 10k points a day for 3 days.


Obviously there are probably some 24-hour teams out there who beat me....
and that's not even including the refer-a-friend program types who could have conceiveably referred 23 players on the first day and gotten the 30k points right away.
many believe that this is a significant factor to the extent that think they will be getting most of the points.

I had no referrals so I wasn't able to boost my numbers that way at all.


You can boycot and/or send a letter if you like.
I'm not going to stop you and I do appreciate the support.

But I don't think it's necessary.
I came into this thinking I had a 10% chance of getting it. Currently I put my chances perhaps a little bit higher than that.
And I don't think a boycot will solve anything anyway.



So...here I am....awake at a silly hour on a Saturday morning just clicking away on my accounts page waiting for it to update (which I hope will happen in a couple hours).

[MicroBob]

Well...my worries about falling short were mostly unfounded.

I got 10224 points yesterday and finished the week with 31260 so I actually had some room to spare.

Thought I might fall short....but during the final hours I was probably noticing every one of those hands that went unraked way more than I normally would have and it was starting to make me paranoid about not getting enough points.


Party has gotten back with me and has told me that my request has been forwarded to the appropriate department and they will get back to me on Feb 7 regarding the package.


fingers crossed!!!

I really don't want to get my hopes up because it is still VERY likely that I won't get it....but it's hard not to think about how freaking great it would be if it were somehow to work out.


thanks again for all the support and kind words everyone.

I was telling my GF that all my little cyber-buddies on 2+2 whom I've never met (mostly) were posting and sending me PM's and commenting in my blog that they were pulling for me all the way and it really made me feel good.

I probably got 30 or so such "GL Bob!! Hope you get it!!" type posts and messages and it makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside.

[Jurollo]

Good luck bob, send me a postcard!
~Justin

[Bigdaddydvo]

Bob, you deserve props just on account of this herculean effort of the last week. Regardless of whether or not you get it, a few days off would be well deserved.

I'm still tryin' to win my way on the old school way via ghetto 7 dollar sub qualifier. It might work provided I don't continue my boneheaded pattern of play in the semi-finals.

[peacemaker]

Good luck I hope one of the good guys does get it.

[scotnt73]

can i get a link to your blog? thanks.

[Al P]

Feb 7th? That's a brutal wait period for something like this.

Good luck, hope you get it!

[Wake up CALL]

My turn to wish you the best of luck Bob.

[teddyFBI]

There isn't a soul here NOT rooting for you.

My advice: I truly think that you WILL get yourself a cruise package if you find the right channel of communication...maybe that means emailing Party "support" twice an hour until you get a rep who will put your email in the hands of the right supervisor, but it can't hurt. Even if they don't have that much pull, at least when they're sorting out all the qualifying entries, they'll remember you as the guy who wouldn't stop emailing them, and seems really passionate about it, and earned the points the old-fashioned way (no referalls).

[David04]

And just think...even if you don't get the cruise, you could order 100 beanies!

[MicroBob]

Now THAT'S something to get excited about.


to scottnt and other interested parties -

bobspokerblog.blogspot.com


I haven't updated it for awhile though...and my next updates might just be a few cross-posts from my threads here just to keep those not from the Zoo appraised of my week.

[Shoe]

Congrats on getting to 30k so fast! I hope you get it, you definitely deserve it.

[pokerswami]

Good Luck fellow Tennessean!

I would have told you so sooner, but I'm allergic to cats.

Also, your cat seems intent on consuming me. Maybe you should retire your cat to a farm barn somewhere and get a dog.