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Laughingboy
02-02-2005, 09:58 PM
Hero is tied for chip lead with ~2k chips on button, dealt pocket tens.
Villain open-pushes from middle position with ~1700 chips. Folded to hero.
Villain has been loose-ish, playing about 30% of hands, but this is his first push.
Blinds are 150/300
Hero will have an imposing chip position if he wins, but be all but busted if he loses.
Call?

The_Bends
02-02-2005, 10:00 PM
How many players left?
I'd proably push against a loose player with less than 10bb

Laughingboy
02-02-2005, 10:03 PM
6 players remain.
Hero at 2k
Villain at 1700
Co-leader at 2k (folded utg)
3 short stacks share the remainder.

The_Bends
02-02-2005, 10:08 PM
Hmm, to be honest I'm not sure. The shortstacks must be exceptionally short (2-3bbs each) and you're probably facing a coinflip. I still think call is correct though as it almost guarentees money and gives you a great shot at 1st.

Laughingboy
02-02-2005, 10:33 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I still think call is correct though as it almost guarentees money and gives you a great shot at 1st.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the way I looked at it. Regrettably, Villain had AQo and the flop had two queens. C'est la vie.

snowmen
02-02-2005, 11:24 PM
I would have folded , you are 55% up but really do not know how strong he is.Maybe i am too tight taking this decision but with shortstacks around and facing a bigger stack...imho

silversurfer
02-03-2005, 12:01 AM
One of the things that stuck in my head after reading TPfAP a couple times was that you don't want to push small edges when it can cost you the tourney. Risking your wad on 1010 here...not good.

Honestly, my first guess was AQs; sorry it didn't work out for you. While you had the edge, you can always punish the LAGs later in the game. Don't be in a hurry to get it done on a marginal hand.

Big Limpin'
02-03-2005, 12:02 AM
Call him. Theres T350 in the pot from the blinds. If you can assume the blinds will need a monster to call 2 all-ins.

This would make a 50/50 shot worth it. I guess the question is what are the chances that he would have only ONE over to your 10-10

Apathy
02-03-2005, 05:08 AM
[ QUOTE ]

This would make a 50/50 shot worth it. I guess the question is what are the chances that he would have only ONE over to your 10-10

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this IS the imprtant question. If you think your pretty far ahead of his push range here then I call, but im not calling if I know its a race. You have a lot of FE left still and can probably make the money without showing down a hand, but I think its close.

KidNapster
02-03-2005, 07:20 AM
Fold.

Amerretto
02-03-2005, 08:12 AM
I would fold and let him win this time, I would have said this was a coin flip at best, one which you don't need to risk at the moment.

TGoldman
02-03-2005, 03:16 PM
This is an easy fold IMO. There's a time to call and gamble a bit but this is definitely NOT what you want to be doing at this point. Right now you're tied for the chip lead. You already have a lot of power, why would you want to throw that away on a likely 55/45 gamble and risk losing the whole tournament at this point? If you call and lose, you'll be left wondering what the heck just happened. Don't put yourself in that situation.

Scuba Chuck
02-03-2005, 05:10 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I think this IS the imprtant question. If you think your pretty far ahead of his push range here then I call, but im not calling if I know its a race. You have a lot of FE left still and can probably make the money without showing down a hand ...


[/ QUOTE ]

EZ. Fold.

He is doing you a favor. He is applying pressure on the small stacks, and risking a call.

Laughingboy
02-03-2005, 09:54 PM
Thanks for the input, guys. From what I've read, I think those in favor of folding have the better of it, but calling is not entirely unreasonable.

silversurfer
02-03-2005, 11:41 PM
I can say with absolute certainty, having lost big leads in 11's more times than I care to count(by over aggressively pushing small edges), that it is not worth it.

You can be aggressive later when the blinds go up, but only if you are still in the tournament (how Zen of me). Patience, grasshopper.

goalltheway
02-04-2005, 08:25 AM
This is one of my first posts, so stick with me....

seems like there has been no thought given to the NUMBER of times it WON'T be 55-45 or so. Especially at the lower limits, this seems to usually indicate a PP lower that your 10's will dominate.

you almost certainly can rule out AA or KK (QQ?) with this strong of a move, which leaves you (very rough guess):

1) VERY BEHIND 5-10 percent of the time- JJ or QQ afraid that overs will come (once again, this is very limit-specific)
2) SLIGHTLY AHEAD 50-60 percent of the time- so they pushed with KJ. the ramifications of winnin and losing this have already been discussed
3)VERY AHEAD 30-40 percent of the time- especially in the lower levels, seeing a 99 or 88 can be scary- of course overs will come. Blind stealing is more popular at the lower levels than cursing out your opponent's mother, and our Villian can't very well raise 3x leaving him with 2/5 of his stack. AND we, of course, can't forget the slightly less favorable times when the goon pushes with A9 sooted.

all this said, while there is a middle ground in which you will be risking your tourney on a coinflip, you are basically getting the best of it the other times.

30% you are way ahead, 50% you are slightly ahead, and 20% you are biting it... i'll make the call

(once again, I realize this reply is probably only relevant to the LL buy-ins)

stlip
02-04-2005, 12:35 PM
I let this one go by most times.

This is the gap concept from TPFAP in action. The hand that opens (and may walk off with the pot without a fight) doesn't have to be as good as a hand that calls knowing it is in for a fight. Especially with an all in push so that you'll have to let your opponent see all five cards. There's no opportunity here to use your good pair to bet him out of the pot if all that flops is a draw or ragged undercards.

A somewhat related point is that my impression is that people will make bigger mistakes more consistently calling all in pushes with hands that are too weak than making their own all in pushes with weaker hands than I would expect. So I prefer to pick my spots and give someone the opportunity to make a big mistake and call with a hand they have no business risking so many chips on than the trickier business of trying to find opportunities where I can call a push with one of my borderline hands and catch someone (other than a desperate short stack or a maniac, of course) who went all in on a particularly weak hand.

jeffraider
02-04-2005, 01:48 PM
I think I'd want QQ, KK or AA to call here. MAYBE AKs depending on a read, but there's no real reason to tangle with this guy with three shortstacks out there.

AA suited
02-04-2005, 03:01 PM
fold.

it's unlikely he has KK/AA since you usually don't push with this as a big stack. he may have a smaller pair, or JJ, or AK.

vs smaller pair - you're ahead
vs jj- you're behind
vs ak- coin flip

why fight another big stack and risk the tourny with TT when you can cruise into the $.