Maybe I've been using out odds all wrong, quick help?

[comstock]

Ok, let's say I've got QJ and the flop comes A K 6

Someone bets. I've got 4 outs for the gutshot which I don't feel great about calling but it's a .50 bet with a $6 dollar pot. The pot's paying 12-1 and I have 16.5% chance of spiking a 10 by the river...so seems like I should call.

Turn is a 2. It doesn't come, and the bet is now $1, pot at $9. Now with one card left the chance of hitting a 10 is 8.7%, and the pot is paying 9-1, can't call.

Now, here's my question. On the flop I had a 16.5% chance of it coming *by the river*, knowing full well if it didn't come by the turn the pot odds probably wouldn't be there to call one more card.

So...in calculating my outs AFTER THE FLOP, maybe I should assume one card to come instead of 2, since most of the time the odds aren't there to see the river anyway once I've recalcuated...right?


This however is a bad example since even assuming only one card to come, 12-1 pot odds vs 8.7% still says call.

So in this situation post flop I should use 1 card instead of 2 for the calcs?

[comstock]

Also, talking strictly Limit poker here of course.

[Rasputin]

[ QUOTE ]
So...in calculating my outs AFTER THE FLOP, maybe I should assume one card to come instead of 2, since most of the time the odds aren't there to see the river anyway once I've recalcuated...right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Right. I think.

If your call buys you one card, make your calculation based on one card. If your call buys you two cards (either your opponent is all in or you are) then make it based on seeing two cards.

[comstock]

basically I've been using 2 cards to come all the time, when I've realized damn well that if i miss on the turn the odds *will no longer* be there to call, so I'm using 1 card to come post flop instead. (there are some cases where the odds will *still* be there to call after missing the turn of course).

[hurlyburly]

Calculate the turn bet in case you miss there. Then, instead of .50 to win 6, you will be calculating 1.50 to win 7.50. 5/1 means you don't have the odds to call the bet on the flop.

[SossMan]

right. you calculate the current bet in relation to the current pot and determine your odds of hitting an out on the next card.
Extrapolating what you might make (positive implied odds) if you hit and how much it will be to see the river (negative implied odds) is also useful, but not as precise.
Of course this all assumes that your outs are good if they hit (you are drawing to the nuts, so it doesn't apply).

SSHE has a great section on this, you should read it.

[binions]

In limit, it's generally best to use 1 card outs in deciding whether to call or fold on the flop.

Occasionally, it will be correct to call a small bet on the flop, and fold when you miss and the bet doubles on the turn.

Example: Flop is AQ3 rainbow, and you have JT suited - gutshot and backdoor flush draw. That's 4 outs for the gutshot, plus 1.5 outs for the backdoor flush draw. 5.5 outs = ~8:1. It's 1 small bet to call the flop, and there are exactly 8 small bets in the pot. You call. Turn is a blank. Flush draw is gone. You have 4 outs to the gutshot = 10.5:1 odds. There are now 6.5 big bets in the pot, and 1 big bet to call. You must fold.

In limit, "2 cards to come" odds are important in a couple of circumstances:

1. When there will be no more betting after the flop (all in).
2. When deciding whether to RAISE the flop.

Example: Let's say you have middle pair and a flush draw (14 outs) on the flop. Your hand will improve to 2 pair or better by the river 51% of the time (2 card outs).

If there is a bettor and caller on the flop before it gets to you, raise. Assuming they call, you are putting in 1/3 of the money on that round, and you are expecting to win 1/2 of the money. Every 3-way (or 4-way, etc.) dollar that goes in the pot on that round profits you in the long run.