FourKing Hell
02-02-2005, 02:26 AM
This might be basic stuff to some of you, but I haven't come across it before and I'd really appreciate your thoughts on this matter. I'd like to know if I'm on the right track.
I'm wondering how the size of your stack affects hand values as it grows larger. As you approach some point around 100BB - which is about 20 to 30 standard raises in most games - big cards go down and 'implied odds' hands such as suited connectors and small pairs go up. I've always taken that into account, and done well for myself. But recently, I started to wonder - is there a third stage?
The following paragraphs will mainly deal with small pairs and suited connectors. How does their going up in value translate into deeper stack play?
Example: 5/10 NL sixhanded. A good player to my right has 2300+ and opens for 30. I have pocket fours, 1800 behind. My brother is watching me play, and as I explain to him the various reasons for calling and what I'm hoping will happen, I realize that most hands the raiser will stack off with if the pot is ~70 can beat a set of fours. Many of those will be tough for me to get away from. I fold, and decide to rethink my strategy for deep stack play. Here's what I've come up with so far:
As stack sizes grow, small pairs become more valuable because it gets worthwhile to call, catch a set and go all in against hands like TPTK or overpairs. Set over set happens, but so rarely that it is made up for by the money made from lesser hands. Lesser hands that will pay you off, because they are pot-commited. If they bet the flop, you raise and they call, they will be hard-pressed to get away from their hands. Either that or you call and they proceed to make an all-in committing bet on the turn. The same holds for low suited connectors - it is near impossible for the raiser to decide whether you hit your hand hard, so he'll have to pay you off some of the time.
However, there is a point where a preflop raise and a flop bet no longer create pot-committing situations. Playing stacks that are close to 200BB, even players with AA (that don't get reraised) will plan on playing a relatively small pot unless they improve. Two pair hands will be wary of traps. Because the percentage of the stacks going in preflop is smaller, hands that are a lock to be +EV come by less and less - you can afford to have higher shove-it-in standards if the payoff is bigger.
Small sets are dangerous here. You can't afford to play a small pot with them, because they won't make you enough to justify playing in the first place, and you can't afford to play them for all your chips either. They are like big overpairs in that they don't want to play a big pot, but they are also unlike big overpairs in an important way: they don't want to play in a small pot either. Never will a pot you win with pocket aces be so small that it wasn't worth to stick your money in in the first place. But if you play for a set, the hands you win need to net you 8 times the amount your losing hands cost you. So you need to build a pot with them. But if you do that, you might build yourself a pot so large you'll be hard-pressed to get away from your hand if someone goes over the top of you with a bigger set. One such mistake can cost you more than all the medium-sized pots you do win, even if each of those exceeded 8x the amount you put in preflop.
I'm not exactly sure how suited connectors fit into all of this. It's pretty damn hard to hit a flop that's worth stacking off outright. I think most of the value lies in big draws that are rarely behind very far, such as straight flush draws or flush draws with a pair, and therefore have a lot of fold equity. Albeit to a lesser degree, those big draws run into the same problems small sets do. An eight-high flush is a good hand, but not often worth 200 big blinds.
On the other hand, if you're 2 to 1 against making your hand on the next street and you're up against a set, which most likely will pay you off more than 0% of the time, especially when you catch a straight, especially straight-flush draws can be immensely profitable - as long as you make sure not to go broke when you do catch that flush, something that's easier to achieve with position.
None of this takes into account the aspect of bluffing and hand-reading, or specific opponents. If there's a possibility the opponent is bluffing, your standards for calling him down will be lower. If there's the possibility you are bluffing and your opponents realize this, the range of hands you can profitably bet will be larger. Also, if you make a play that represents either a bluff or a set of deuces, your opponent won't try to bet you off your hand. If he does raise, you can safely fold either hand. It will be just as if you had gone all in with a smaller stack and lost. Some opponents are just plain stupid enough to desperately cling to their overpairs no matter what happens, and you can still take advantage of them playing the same way you would in a 100BB stack situation.
-- CONCLUSION
Overall, I guess if you're a good enough hand reader you can play just about anything. But these are my thoughts on specific hand types:
Big offsuits - stay the same.
You either play a small pot, just like you would with medium stacks, or you turn some sort of monster which will be good enough to go all in, just like with medium stacks. Just two pair does not qualify, but you should be able to get away from that for less than 100BB.
Big suiteds - go up
Aside from the aforementioned, you'll have the additional benefit of snapping off suited connectors that others will also be playing. They'll be hard-pressed to fold when they just hit one of their many outs and you have the Ace.
Ace-little suited - one of the most overrated hands, IMO. I don't think it's worth more with deeper stacks, because most often you'll wind up playing just the flush draw.
Medium to big pairs - go up somewhat.
They still win the majority of the small pots they play, and won't play really big pots unless they improve. When they do turn top set, they're committed, as opponents might be on a smaller set.
Small pairs - go down a lot
With 100BB stacks, small pairs gain territory on big pairs. With 200BB stacks, big pairs regain some of that territory because of the increased danger of set over set.
(Suited) connector-type hands - go up, mostly at the expense of small pairs but also bigger pairs
Everyone knows that a set is always possible. Everyone knows how to recognize boards with straight potential. However, because there are often multiple draws you could have been holding, and only one of them got there, especially small and medium straights are still the most deceptive hands out there. Of course, you'd prefer situations where you either have the nuts, or the real nuts would have required your opponent to call with a four-outer.
I'm wondering how the size of your stack affects hand values as it grows larger. As you approach some point around 100BB - which is about 20 to 30 standard raises in most games - big cards go down and 'implied odds' hands such as suited connectors and small pairs go up. I've always taken that into account, and done well for myself. But recently, I started to wonder - is there a third stage?
The following paragraphs will mainly deal with small pairs and suited connectors. How does their going up in value translate into deeper stack play?
Example: 5/10 NL sixhanded. A good player to my right has 2300+ and opens for 30. I have pocket fours, 1800 behind. My brother is watching me play, and as I explain to him the various reasons for calling and what I'm hoping will happen, I realize that most hands the raiser will stack off with if the pot is ~70 can beat a set of fours. Many of those will be tough for me to get away from. I fold, and decide to rethink my strategy for deep stack play. Here's what I've come up with so far:
As stack sizes grow, small pairs become more valuable because it gets worthwhile to call, catch a set and go all in against hands like TPTK or overpairs. Set over set happens, but so rarely that it is made up for by the money made from lesser hands. Lesser hands that will pay you off, because they are pot-commited. If they bet the flop, you raise and they call, they will be hard-pressed to get away from their hands. Either that or you call and they proceed to make an all-in committing bet on the turn. The same holds for low suited connectors - it is near impossible for the raiser to decide whether you hit your hand hard, so he'll have to pay you off some of the time.
However, there is a point where a preflop raise and a flop bet no longer create pot-committing situations. Playing stacks that are close to 200BB, even players with AA (that don't get reraised) will plan on playing a relatively small pot unless they improve. Two pair hands will be wary of traps. Because the percentage of the stacks going in preflop is smaller, hands that are a lock to be +EV come by less and less - you can afford to have higher shove-it-in standards if the payoff is bigger.
Small sets are dangerous here. You can't afford to play a small pot with them, because they won't make you enough to justify playing in the first place, and you can't afford to play them for all your chips either. They are like big overpairs in that they don't want to play a big pot, but they are also unlike big overpairs in an important way: they don't want to play in a small pot either. Never will a pot you win with pocket aces be so small that it wasn't worth to stick your money in in the first place. But if you play for a set, the hands you win need to net you 8 times the amount your losing hands cost you. So you need to build a pot with them. But if you do that, you might build yourself a pot so large you'll be hard-pressed to get away from your hand if someone goes over the top of you with a bigger set. One such mistake can cost you more than all the medium-sized pots you do win, even if each of those exceeded 8x the amount you put in preflop.
I'm not exactly sure how suited connectors fit into all of this. It's pretty damn hard to hit a flop that's worth stacking off outright. I think most of the value lies in big draws that are rarely behind very far, such as straight flush draws or flush draws with a pair, and therefore have a lot of fold equity. Albeit to a lesser degree, those big draws run into the same problems small sets do. An eight-high flush is a good hand, but not often worth 200 big blinds.
On the other hand, if you're 2 to 1 against making your hand on the next street and you're up against a set, which most likely will pay you off more than 0% of the time, especially when you catch a straight, especially straight-flush draws can be immensely profitable - as long as you make sure not to go broke when you do catch that flush, something that's easier to achieve with position.
None of this takes into account the aspect of bluffing and hand-reading, or specific opponents. If there's a possibility the opponent is bluffing, your standards for calling him down will be lower. If there's the possibility you are bluffing and your opponents realize this, the range of hands you can profitably bet will be larger. Also, if you make a play that represents either a bluff or a set of deuces, your opponent won't try to bet you off your hand. If he does raise, you can safely fold either hand. It will be just as if you had gone all in with a smaller stack and lost. Some opponents are just plain stupid enough to desperately cling to their overpairs no matter what happens, and you can still take advantage of them playing the same way you would in a 100BB stack situation.
-- CONCLUSION
Overall, I guess if you're a good enough hand reader you can play just about anything. But these are my thoughts on specific hand types:
Big offsuits - stay the same.
You either play a small pot, just like you would with medium stacks, or you turn some sort of monster which will be good enough to go all in, just like with medium stacks. Just two pair does not qualify, but you should be able to get away from that for less than 100BB.
Big suiteds - go up
Aside from the aforementioned, you'll have the additional benefit of snapping off suited connectors that others will also be playing. They'll be hard-pressed to fold when they just hit one of their many outs and you have the Ace.
Ace-little suited - one of the most overrated hands, IMO. I don't think it's worth more with deeper stacks, because most often you'll wind up playing just the flush draw.
Medium to big pairs - go up somewhat.
They still win the majority of the small pots they play, and won't play really big pots unless they improve. When they do turn top set, they're committed, as opponents might be on a smaller set.
Small pairs - go down a lot
With 100BB stacks, small pairs gain territory on big pairs. With 200BB stacks, big pairs regain some of that territory because of the increased danger of set over set.
(Suited) connector-type hands - go up, mostly at the expense of small pairs but also bigger pairs
Everyone knows that a set is always possible. Everyone knows how to recognize boards with straight potential. However, because there are often multiple draws you could have been holding, and only one of them got there, especially small and medium straights are still the most deceptive hands out there. Of course, you'd prefer situations where you either have the nuts, or the real nuts would have required your opponent to call with a four-outer.