How bad was this play? (10+1)

[snayan]

Boot boy had been throwing his $$ around for most of the game, i felt i had a decent hand, but should i have folded with the all in and call? or just called, no raise?
#Game No : 1526807626
***** Hand History for Game 1526807626 *****
NL Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:9191687 Level:5 Blinds(100/200) - Tuesday, February 01, 19:41:12 EDT 2005
Table Table 11880 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 6: Arsenaul ( $1445 )
Seat 7: teamcheef ( $695 )
Seat 1: Cgore513 ( $2335 )
Seat 10: Lewdogg ( $1365 )
Seat 3: boot_boy ( $2160 )
Trny:9191687 Level:5
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Arsenaul [ Jc Ac ]
teamcheef is all-In [695]
Lewdogg folds.
Cgore513 folds.
boot_boy calls [595].
Arsenaul is all-In [1245]
boot_boy calls [750].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 8d, 7s, Qh ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Ah ]
** Dealing River ** [ 9s ]
teamcheef shows [ Kd, 2s ] high card ace.
boot_boy shows [ As, Ad ] three of a kind, aces.
Arsenaul shows [ Jc, Ac ] a pair of aces.
teamcheef finished in fifth place.
Arsenaul finished in fourth place.
boot_boy wins 1500 chips from side pot #1 with three of a kind, aces.
boot_boy wins 2085 chips from the main pot with three of a kind, aces.
Arsenaul has left the table.
teamcheef has left the table.
Game #1526809865 starts.

[willie24]

if it were just the 1 allin to call (say you were in middle position), i like the push. when 1 guy pushes here and another guy calls, I'm not sure anymore. it depends on what I know about the guy who called. is he a suspicious type who will autocall a smallstack push at this level with any 2 paint or any ace? does he normally raise/push himself rather than just call? or is he too tight when the blinds get this high?

against a decent tournament player this is a fold- because anyone who knew what he was doing would either fold or push (not call) with anything worse than AJ. but there are quite a few people who just have no idea, and will just call with A7 or QT if either A. they get annoyed enough at all the "preflop raising", or B. they think they have odds to call the push, but are afraid of committing their whole stack and don't understand that they are pot-committing themselves with a call anyway. against a guy like this a push is definitely right.

if you're not sure, just fold.

[morgan180]

As a general rule when a small stack pushes and the big stack calls I like to get out of the way unless I have the AA or KK. Also you would typically see a big reraise from the big stack if they are looking to isolate the small stack and "take them out" the flat call is him just hoping for a few more customers to get paid. It sucks at the 100/200 level to look down and find a hand you WANT to play, and have to fold it, but you've got to fold this, IMHO.

[Scuba Chuck]

ah, you're Arsenaul. I can't believe you haven't recognized me on your tables!

I'm practicing my ICM analysis, so PLEASE blast away if I am applying this wrong.

Your prizepool equity if you fold and caller wins:
20.6%
Your prizepool equity if you fold and aggressor wins:
18.7%

So, folding is +2$EV if caller wins.

Your prizepool equity if you push and lose:
0.0%

Your prizepool equity if you push and win (3 way):
35.5%

It's obviously tempting. The tricky part I see here is assigning probabilities to whether caller will call your reraise, and then how to extrapolate the kinds of hand strengths to assign the two unknown callers.

Frankly, I think you will ultimately find this to be a -$EV play, as I don't think AJs is all that great in three way action, and the probability for 3 way is high - due to just pot odds alone (forget the trap).

I think at best you'd have about 25% equity with this hand three way.

I will see if I can do more calculations later.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]


Your prizepool equity if you fold and caller wins:
20.6%
Your prizepool equity if you fold and aggressor wins:
18.7%

So, folding is +2$EV if caller wins.

Your prizepool equity if you push and lose:
0.0%

Your prizepool equity if you push and win (3 way):
35.5%


[/ QUOTE ]

One other thing to possibly calculate is how often he will have to win calling this in order to break even.

Yugoslav

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
One other thing to possibly calculate is how often he will have to win calling this in order to break even.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I think at best you'd have about 25% equity with this hand three way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yugo, I'm not exactly sure how you'd calculate your question other than by the statement I made above. If that is correct, he'd need to win 1 out of every 4 times to make this breakeven? Or win this 1 out of every 3 times to make this profitable? Is that correct?

[Scuba Chuck]

Okay, before I rack my brains on this ICM analysis, I want to make sure I have all the potential outcomes listed.

Let me know if you think I have them all, or am I missing one (or two)?

1) Push, win (3 way)
2) Push, lose (3 way)
3) Push, tie (3 way)
4) Push, tie large stack, small stack loses
5) Push, win from large stack, lose to small stack
6) Push, win from large stack, tie small stack
7) Push, large stack folds, and win (2 way)
8) Push, large stack folds, and lose (2 way)
9) Push, large stack folds, and tie (2 way)

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
One other thing to possibly calculate is how often he will have to win calling this in order to break even.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I think at best you'd have about 25% equity with this hand three way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yugo, I'm not exactly sure how you'd calculate your question other than by the statement I made above. If that is correct, he'd need to win 1 out of every 4 times to make this breakeven? Or win this 1 out of every 3 times to make this profitable? Is that correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

Doing a very rough calculation, if you fold your equity will be a bit under 20% then you will need to push and win ~56% of the time gaining a 35.5% equity in order to equal your fold equity. (win% = equity of folding divided by equity of pushing and winning)

I think there is almost no way the hero can expect to win over 50% of the time here (generally vs. two opponents) given the context and hero's holding. There are also other considerations to take into account that ICM does not after doing an ICM calculation but here the decision doesn't seem all that close. I would fold.

Yugoslav