Paradise 25$ NL hand

[A_PLUS]

Table is pretty much the perfect set up for a TAG player. Too many people call raises pre-flop, but only continue with top pair, and take it too far with that.

Paradise Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) converter

UTG ($15.65)
UTG+1 ($14.75)
MP1 ($14.50)
MP2 ($22.93)
CO ($23.70)
Button ($26.45)
SB ($21.70)
Hero ($28.40)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6c, 5c. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, MP1 calls $0.25, MP2 raises to $1, CO calls $1, 1 fold, SB (poster) calls $0.90, Hero calls $0.75, UTG+1 calls $0.75, MP1 calls $0.75.

Flop: ($6) 7c, 4c, Js (6 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 raises to $8


What do you think the right play is here.
My thinking was AJ, didnt want to give anyone a cheap draw.
The only hands that really put me in trouble are two over clubs, based on previous play, I really only thought KJ or AJ were possible. Even in these cases, I am only a 2-1 dog.
So, with a push, the pot is paying me 31/17 so I push.

Is this too aggressive against weak oponents? In a standard game, I push every time, but is the risk/reward ratio right against weak players, when I know I will be presented with much easier decisions later?

[soah]

If people will pay off with their whole stack when obvious draws hit then just check/call the flop.

[steaknshake925]

You have a monster draw. Even if he has AJ or even aces you're a slight favorite to win. When he raised, pushing was definitly the correct move. You want to get as much money in on the flop as possible.

Although, I'm not sure I like you betting out on the flop. The reason is if you just get called and blank comes on the turn, then youre in a tough spot. A good move here is to checkraise all-in on the flop.

Also, soah's line is good too, and it's actually one that I usually take against weak opponents who way underbet the pot and then pay off their stacks when I hit. So if villain in the hand is weak like that, then check-calling is good too.

[FUpaymee]

BB on the 25 NL tables on Paradise is .25 and SB is .10 /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[A_PLUS]

Yeah, i dont know why it said that? Maybe I copied something wrong. Only the heading is wrong, rest of numbers are correct.

Thanks for the input, I never really thought about the check raise on the flop, 2 reasons.
First, the table was overly tight post flop, I thought a 3$ bet stood a pretty good chance of winning the pot uncontested. Second, I knew that no one would put me on a draw, giving me more ammo if an overcard fell on the turn or river to fire my second bullet.

Earlier in the session, I led out on the flop with AKs, when I flopped a 4 flush, and had someone lay down a pair of Jacks when a Qh fell on the turn. So it was that type of table.

I do think that the check-raise push is a good play here though.

[Tilt]

No I disagree with a c/r. I think you disguise your hand best by betting out. I think the way you played it is fine IMO. You have a decent pot built when you push, but you still have fold equity, and you are probably the statistical favorite if he does call. Even if he calls and you lose your table image will be great for your TAG style. 25NL players don't understand that pushing with the double draw is not maniacal.

[A_PLUS]

The more I think about it, the more I agree that the CR push may not be the best move here. It is reducing the hand to the lowest common denominator, and is definitely EV, but not maximum EV.

Here is why (IMO)
You either win a decent pot at the outset, or give yourself one way to win a very large pot. Definitely profitable, but doesn't take advantage of the fact that you are a better player than your opponent.

By betting out, you add a ton of layers to the hand. Now your skill can come into play.
If the straight hits, you most likely still getting plenty of action.

You can check a made flush hoping to induce a bluff.

You can bluff into any overcard, hoping to get your oponent to lay down a pair of jacks. Or bluff into a blank, as many oponents can not withstand the second bullet with JT or JQ.

If they play back into your raise, you have to push, you know they are committed and you might as well get the money in now.

[amoeba]

there are downsides too such as if the board pairs, you are now scared to get the money in, you miss the opportunity to drive out a higher flush draw on the flop, etc...

I think its close.

[Leo Bello]

if your read on the itghtness of the table is correct, a check-raise would not have worked on flop. You have a good draw, but that is it, you have a good draw. Your bet on the flop seemed nice, principally because it could take the pot right there without need to fill your hand.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
You can check a made flush hoping to induce a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, you can't. You have to protect your hand if you hit on the turn.

The key question is whether or not people will pay when you hit. Whether or not you hit is not determined by your play, but by the cards. So if you are not going to hit, you want as little going into the pot as possible. If you are going to hit, you want as much. Since you don't know, you take the highest EV route. If the money won't go in once the draw hits, then you need to get it in when there is a good chance of it hitting, but before it does so. If he will pay you off even after it hits, then you shouldn't bet before it does so, since any money that you have left in your stack at the river may be saved if you miss your draw. This is ignoring folding equity, but I have decided that folding equity at NL25 = 0.

[DoomSlice]

What 25NL games are you playing... I want in.

[Kaz The Original]

This is an excellent point. Another example of this situation is when you have 22 and the flop comes down A42 (two diamonds). With your amazing hand reading abilities you put your opponent on AK of diamonds.

Against some players, they will call all in with this on the river. Almost all players will call all in with this on the flop.

Some you should put all in on the flop, some on the turn, some on the river.

The same concept applied in another situation.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
What 25NL games are you playing... I want in.

[/ QUOTE ]
Party Poker 6 max. Absolute gold mine.

[DoomSlice]

I play that and I hardly ever see people go to the felt without at least TPTK. Many times they even fold that to some strong aggression. I must be missing some juicy games... I have not seen one person call an all in preflop with less than AK... maybe my table selection is just horrible.

[TheWorstPlayer]

I could post hands, but we would be here all night. Let's just say that people calling all-in preflop with A6s, KQo, etc is the norm rather than the exception, in my experience. Maybe it is table selection. I do data mine for at least 30 hands before I sit and won't sit at a table without at least 2 people seeing over 60% of flops. I also like to have at least one person raising 30% preflop. The more maniacs the merrier.

[A_PLUS]

Kaz and Worstplayer,

I think you both make good points, hopefully you are willing to dig deeper with me.

Worst, for the hand in question, the push after the reraise is a no brainer in my opinion. After a player commits half of his stack, your folding equity rapidily approaches zero.

So lets go back to the start of the round. I am first to act with 6 players in the hand, and a nice pot 6$. You mention getting all in, would you lead out? Check raise? What about if you believed there was post flop folding equity (at this table, there absolutely was)? With F.E. I think trying to get heads up against TP is the best situation if you can get it. I think you definitely get paid off on your straight, and I disagree that you cant check a made flush to induce a bluff on the turn, especially if the pot isn't overly large. There are 16 scare cards (6 make higher flush, 10 make full house), and he isnt drawing all of them. So if you think there is a 50/50 chance they will make a pot sized bet (they wont think they are bluffing with TP) you win. Thoughts?

Kaz,
Do you think there is a difference in this case, b/c in this case you havent made a hand, so folding equity becomes more valuable. In the case you mentioned, you have the best hand and if the other player improves you have zero F.E. into a nut flush. In the case of the double draw you may be able to win with a bet into an overcard on the turn. Thoughts?

[SeattleJake]

I know I still have a lot to learn...

I like $6 on the flop better, but the $3 is ok too. After the re-raise though, you're getting 12-5 payoff on a call (for a 20-5 chance), and getting 24-17 payoff on the all-in(for a 49-17 chance). I don't like either of those options.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
After the re-raise though, you're getting 12-5 payoff on a call (for a 20-5 chance)

[/ QUOTE ]

preflop 6$ + 3$(my bet) + 8(his bet) = 17$ - 5$ call.
I'm not sure where you are getting the 20-5 from. I am assuming you are talking about my chances of hitting on the turn. I have 8 cards that make my straight + 7 cards to make my flush (9 - 2 that count for straight flush). There are 47 cards remaining so it is 47-15 against me making it or apx 16 -5.

[ QUOTE ]
24-17 payoff on the all-in(for a 49-17 chance). I don't like either of those options.

[/ QUOTE ]

For the all-in. I was raising 19$ (5$call + 14$ raise) to win a 50$ pot (6$preflop +3$my bet + 8$his bet + 19$mine + 14$ his call)=50$.

So I would have the same 15 outs, but would have two cards remaining to complete my hand. Depending on what he holds, I am either a slight favorite or a 2-1 underdog, so no matter what I was getting correct odds to go all-in. Also there is a chance that he would fold to my raise (folding equity), increasing the profitability of the move.

I hope this helps, let me know if I am wrong somewhere

[amoeba]

when you are the favorite, you aren't the one drawing.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
when you are the favorite, you aren't the one drawing.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are actually a 56+% favorite against AJ as long as they dont have any clubs. Your in worse shape against AJc, but still around 2-1 dog at worst

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
For the all-in. I was raising 19$ (5$call + 14$ raise) to win a 50$ pot (6$preflop +3$my bet + 8$his bet + 19$mine + 14$ his call)=50$.


[/ QUOTE ]
You can't include your own $19 in the pot size. If you fold now, you end up with $19. If you push and win, you end up with $50. So you are risking $19 to make $31.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
Worst, for the hand in question, the push after the reraise is a no brainer in my opinion. After a player commits half of his stack, your folding equity rapidily approaches zero.

So lets go back to the start of the round. I am first to act with 6 players in the hand, and a nice pot 6$. You mention getting all in, would you lead out? Check raise? What about if you believed there was post flop folding equity (at this table, there absolutely was)? With F.E. I think trying to get heads up against TP is the best situation if you can get it. I think you definitely get paid off on your straight, and I disagree that you cant check a made flush to induce a bluff on the turn, especially if the pot isn't overly large. There are 16 scare cards (6 make higher flush, 10 make full house), and he isnt drawing all of them. So if you think there is a 50/50 chance they will make a pot sized bet (they wont think they are bluffing with TP) you win. Thoughts?


[/ QUOTE ]
Read Soah's post above. Let's even acknowledge that you are a favorite on the flop. Still, if the turn and river are blanks, you lose the hand. So, if opponent would do exactly what you want, then you should just check/call the flop, check/call the turn if it blanks, and check/fold the river if it blanks. If at any point you hit, you should push and have the other guy call. That is the way to make the most, when you are controlling both people. My suggestion is that this may actually be the scenario here. There is no point in making fancy flop pushes when the guy is going to pay you off even AFTER you hit. Just try to see if you hit as cheaply as possible and then worry about getting the money in. It usually isn't hard to do.

[A_PLUS]

Your right, dumb mistake.
Thanks

So It is actually an incorrect (FTOP sense) play only if the opponent holds the Jack of clubs and another club.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
So It is actually an incorrect (FTOP sense) play only if the opponent holds the Jack of clubs and another club.

[/ QUOTE ]
This sounds correct, but I can't guarantee it now since I haven't worked it out. I think the key, though, is trying to make your opponent make as big a mistake as possible. If you draw hits and he is drawing dead, you can make him make a HUGE mistake if he will still pay you off.

[numb3rs]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe it is table selection. I do data mine for at least 30 hands before I sit and won't sit at a table without at least 2 people seeing over 60% of flops. I also like to have at least one person raising 30% preflop. The more maniacs the merrier.

[/ QUOTE ]

I find this interesting how you assess table conditions. Do you have a feel for ranges that these stats should be in? What should a good player's VPIP% and PFR% be for 6 handed NL?

Last night I was at a table with an unbeatable player with a VPIP% of over 75; his PFR% was less than 2 however; he managed to get up over $215 at the 6 max $25 NL table. It was a good table in terms of loose players, but it was missing the loose aggressives as you describe.

[TheWorstPlayer]

I have heard it said that you can beat SS 6 Max consistently with a VPIP up to around 60%. That can only be done, however, if you can play very well post flop. I cannot do that. I beat SS 6 max consistently with a VPIP around 20% which I think is in line with most TAGs around here. I have a PFR% of around 10% which I think may be a bit higher than most people's but is probably in the same ballpark. I have also seen people beating games with ridiculous numbers. I do not think that is sustainable unless they are very good players and if they are, they might as well be playing higher limits. The people I have seen have been getting lucky against other big stacks. Yesterday I saw a guy with 4x the buy-in at a 100BB site, full ring who was incredibly LAG (75/50). I sat down and decided it was juicy pickings. I played three big hands with him losing them all to a 2 outer and 2 4-outers. These things just happen. That guy will not have a high win rate if he plays 100K hands, I promise.

[amoeba]

I have tried the LAG approach but it has not worked too well for me. I think I have to start out TAG when I sit down at a table then gradually move to LAG.

what I hate is losing money to a fish and then have somebody else at the table cleaning him out.

[ryanghall]

This is an easy preflop fold.

Since you got about as good a flop as you can hope for, I don't think there can be any argument that you certainly come over the top of his raise and put all your chips in the middle.

Ryan

[A_PLUS]

Thanks everyone, especially worst.

I agree that the best move would have been to call the 5$ raise and wait to see the turn. What is your thoughts about play on the turn? There will now be 22$ in the pot, and with his stack at 14$, I will be getting correct odds to call any of his bets. But, here is the catch. My EV, although always positive, decreases as the amount he bets increases. If he were to chekc the turn, I have an EV of 7+$. If he pushes, my EV drops to $2.3. So now lets add some folding equity. If he will fold 10% of the time to my all in bet, the only time this is a bad play is when he was going to let me see the river for less than 7$. I think lead out and push if an overcard to the jack falls, being that F.E. would be at its highest then. Or possibly lead out for 4-5$ being that many weak players will get in a protective call station mode when someone plays back at their TPTK. thoughts?

[TheWorstPlayer]

I think it really depends on the player. Against an aggressive player (like myself) I might check/call turn, check/raise river. A daring and VERY effective play against a decent, but not good, opponent (like myself). If you miss the turn, I would just check/call or maybe check/raise all-in if an over hits. Probably check/call. Either he will be building a pot for me, or he will give me a free card. Honestly, I would not be surprised to see him give you a free card here. People often get scared when their raises get called.

[A_PLUS]

The funny thing about this hand is we both went all in on the flop, and I caught my flush on the turn, and he caught the 4th Jack on the river. But I thought it was worth discussing.

I think the main lesson here is playing draws out of position sucks. The best you can hope for is that someone underbets the pot and gives you a cheap draw, worst case, you push and lose a good bit of your EV.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
The funny thing about this hand is we both went all in on the flop, and I caught my flush on the turn, and he caught the 4th Jack on the river. But I thought it was worth discussing.

I think the main lesson here is playing draws out of position sucks. The best you can hope for is that someone underbets the pot and gives you a cheap draw, worst case, you push and lose a good bit of your EV.

[/ QUOTE ]
I feel like there are a TON of hands where I end up like this. I first say to myself, well, there wasn't much I could do. No matter what I do I will hit the flush on the turn and go all-in and then he will hit his J and I will lose. Damn, quads over flush. That sucks. And then I'll be like, maybe I shouldn't play this preflop and this is a message. A tighter player would have avoided this situation.

[A_PLUS]

[quoteI feel like there are a TON of hands where I end up like this. I first say to myself, well, there wasn't much I could do. No matter what I do I will hit the flush on the turn and go all-in and then he will hit his J and I will lose. Damn, quads over flush. That sucks. And then I'll be like, maybe I shouldn't play this preflop and this is a message. A tighter player would have avoided this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I think the important thing to do is you hands to really learn about situations. Thats why I try to avoid posting results of the hand until after people discuss it.

There are many times that you flop a great draw and question how to play it, hopefully now I will be better equipped. Im not going to get caught up in how I could have avoided the situation preflop. B/c if someone offered me the same scenario on the flop, its +EV so Im happy to get it.