MLB HOF Shoo-ins

[istewart]

Current players, add to my list, I'm undoubtedly forgetting a few.

Bonds
Maddux
Clemens
R. Johnson
I want to make an argument against it, but I can't see how Sosa's not getting in.
Martinez
I. Rodriguez

Assuming continued performance, the following as well:

Suzuki
A. Rodriguez
Jeter
Pujols (quite down the road, yes)
M. Ramirez

[Edge34]

As much as I hate the Yankees, Mariano Rivera is almost guaranteed. So's Curt Schilling.

I wouldn't discount the possibility, assuming continuted performance, of a guy like Torii Hunter.

[istewart]

Yankee fan here actually. How did I forget Rivera? Definitely. I'm not positive Schilling is a shoo-in, but even I can't make any great case for him not to be there.

[Phil Van Sexton]

Griffey (easily forgotten)

Couple more years
Mariano Rivera
Thome

Eventually
Vlad

[Clarkmeister]

There are at least two huge threads on this in the last few months with some good thoughts and replies.

[Edge34]

I don't pay near enough attention to baseball these days, but there's another Yankee who'll probably make it, but he isn't a player.

Can Joe Torre be voted in as a manager? I'd have to think so. Assuming they don't axe him if they lose the World Series again, he should be around for a while. Hell, probably got a few more rings in him.

(Christ, I can't believe I'm talking about the Yankees in a good way...I feel dirty /images/graemlins/tongue.gif)

[istewart]

Alright, Clark.

Yeah, Torre as well. Maybe Grady Little too?

[Patrick del Poker Grande]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not positive Schilling is a shoo-in

[/ QUOTE ]
How in the world can you not be positive? Also, people are forgetting Pedro.

[Patrick del Poker Grande]

How about an Alomar or two?

[Patrick del Poker Grande]

And Greg Maddux!

edit: Okay, he was listed - I missed it.

[lapoker17]

OK, I'll take Sandy.

[johnnybeef]

maybe not a shoo-in, but how bout omar vizquel?

[B00T]

Schilling is in already IMO. He was NASTY in Philly his earlier years when there was no market there and he was unnoticed. He should get in on his numbers alone, but the writers will cant help but be biased about the Sox winning. He is overrated right now, but still incredible for the last 10 years.

[B00T]

Roberto Alomar better get in.

Guys who I dont think will get in. Jeff Bagwell, Fred McGriff, Frank Thomas, Jim Thome.

[Clarkmeister]

Bagwell and Thomas are cinches.

[mmbt0ne]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
Martinez

[/ QUOTE ]

Are we talking Pedro, Edgar, both, or everyone named Martinez?

[bosoxfan]

When Pedro gets in he will be the first pitcher under 6 feet tall in the hall.

[IggyWH]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not positive Schilling is a shoo-in

[/ QUOTE ]
How in the world can you not be positive? Also, people are forgetting Pedro.

[/ QUOTE ]

His lifetime record is 184-123!!

The HOF will officially become a joke Schilling makes it in.

As for Pedro, I think he will as long as he doesn't take a nosedive in the end if his career.

[B00T]

Thomas *might* get 500 home runs. If he does then he will be in. He has a stronger case than Bagwell, but I still think it is weak.

I don't see your logic in Bagwell. He was very solid for a long long time, but what has he actually done that is so spectacular? He was never MVP, never did jack in the playoffs, never really did anything to write home about.

I don't see how your "cinch" comment is even close to accurate.

[B00T]

Oh, and a shoe-in that is not on the original list, nor mentioned...

Piazza.

[andyfox]

My guess is Bagwell makes it on the first ballot. Thomas might too, except he's probably not as well liked by the sportswriters.

[andyfox]

Whitey Ford. And (I think) Eddie Plank.

[offTopic]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not positive Schilling is a shoo-in

[/ QUOTE ]
How in the world can you not be positive?

[/ QUOTE ]

Career numbers

[andyfox]

No way. 184 lifetime wins and no Cy Young awards. He'll have to win 40-50 more games in his carrer to even be considered.

[offTopic]

[ QUOTE ]
Whitey Ford. And (I think) Eddie Plank.

[/ QUOTE ]

As a lifelong Giants fan, I find it funny that they got the Ed Plank that pitched 10.1 innings his whole "career" and not the one that won 300 games.

[bosoxfan]

[ QUOTE ]
Whitey Ford. And (I think) Eddie Plank

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey you're right. I knew I should have looked instead of just taking his word for it. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[M2d]

whitey ford

[Uston]

I don't see your logic in Bagwell. He was very solid for a long long time, but what has he actually done that is so spectacular? He was never MVP, never did jack in the playoffs, never really did anything to write home about.

You sure about Bagwell never winning MVP?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_1994.shtml#NLmvp

He'll hit 500 HR's. Career OBP of .408. Career OPS+ of 150. Basically, he's been one of the ten best players of the last 20 years.

[andyfox]

If their careers ended today, I would vote for the following currently active players to be in the HOF:

Bonds
Sosa
Thomas
Griffey
A Rod
I Rod
Alomar
Bagwell
Manny
Pedro
Maddux
Clemens
Johnson
Glavine
Rivera
Piazza
Biggio
McGriff

Juan Gonzalez might be close, and possibly Vizquel, Kent, and John Franco, but I'd probaly vote no on them.

[offTopic]

I agree with you on everyone except McGriff. If the selectors go with the "...compared to HoF'ers at the position..." then Kent is in, as well.

[RogerZBT]

Rafael Palmeiro is a lock.

I wouldn't call Schilling and Rivera locks (although Rivera would be if the voters didn't seem to be so anti-relievers), but they are both deserving.

[CCass]

Andy's list is darn close. I would not yet vote for McGriff or Glavine (and I am a Braves fan), and I would add Kent for sure.

[RogerZBT]

[ QUOTE ]
Bonds
Sosa
Thomas
Griffey
A Rod
I Rod
Alomar
Bagwell
Manny
Pedro
Maddux
Clemens
Johnson
Glavine
Rivera
Piazza
Biggio
McGriff

Juan Gonzalez might be close, and possibly Vizquel, Kent, and John Franco, but I'd probaly vote no on them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Glavine has a shot, but he's not a lock... although the sooner he stops playing, the better his chances.

McGriff's average season (.280-30-100) doesn't seem very impressive against his peers. Gonzalez's numbers are better, but his reputation is worse. It'll be interesting to see what the voters do with these two (soon-to-be) 500 homer hitters. Neither would get my vote.

Neither would Kent, Vizquel or Franco.

[Paluka]

I don't think Schilling is in yet, but I do think Rivera is. I don't think Glavine is in for sure either. I am really torn on McGriff and Palmeiro. Pedro could get hit by a bus tomorrow and get in.
I would consider voting for Smoltz if he has a great year as a starter this year.

[istewart]

Yeah, I was referring to Pedro in the OP. Edgar Martinez is fringe at best, far from a lock. I have no personal vendetta against DHs but we know most do.

[andyfox]

.

[istewart]

Piazza will probably eventually get in, but I don't think he's a certainty. His fielding is/was atrocious.

[andyfox]

My sense is Torre eventually does indeed get in, combining his careers as a player and a manager, as well as his players' union leadership. An MVP award, a batting title, 4 World Series wins and 6 pennants as a manager will probably do the trick.

Cox and LaRussa will get in as managers. (Sorry, Clark.)

[andyfox]

He's the best-hitting catcher of all-time. The voters will remember his numbers. I agree that he was always a poor catcher, even in his younger days.

[B00T]

I dont remember Bagwell winning an MVP because the season was wiped out.

If Bagwell gets to 500 I agree he will get in. He needs 54 more home runs to get to 500. Career .297 hitter is nothing special. He like McGriff might need more than that to get in. I think compared to his era, he was nothing magnificent. McGriff and Bagwell if they get 500 homers may start the new era of 500HR's is not an automatic to get in anymore.

[Shajen]

I'm interested to see where people think Andruw Jones and Chipper Jones rank in their lists....assuming they continue their averages for the next say 6 years...

[RogerZBT]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm interested to see where people think Andruw Jones and Chipper Jones rank in their lists....assuming they continue their averages for the next say 6 years...

[/ QUOTE ]

Chipper might have had a shot if he stayed at third. His numbers are not great for an outfielder.

Andruw only has a shot because he's young (can't believe he's only 27), but his batting average is horrible and he's stopped running. He'll have to really turn it on to get there.

[B00T]

what about Todd Helton? This guy is just sick. I know he plays at Coors, but his road numbers are not too shabby. He owns Bagwell.

[Jack of Arcades]

The fact that you think Bagwell is nothing special speaks very negatively of your baseball knowledge. Bagwell is one of the greatest 1B to ever play the game.

Let's take Andy's list and modify it...

Guys I'd vote for now:
Bonds
Sosa
Thomas
Griffey
A Rod
I Rod
Alomar
LARKIN
Bagwell
Manny
Pedro
Maddux
Clemens
R. Johnson
Piazza
Biggio

Will likely get there:
Helton
Rivera
Jeter
Pujols

Might get there:
Beltran
Andruw
Chipper
Walker
Kent

I'm staying away from predicting pitchers save for Mariano 'cause goddamn they're so unpredictable.

[istewart]

If Helton gets in, Walker gets in. But I don't think Helton will get in. Coors is an abomination. Take Dante Bichette for example.

[Jack of Arcades]

Ballparks are easy to adjust for. For example, using ballpark adjustments shows us that Dante Bichette had very similar years throughout his career (that is, below average for a corner OF) except for 1995.

[david050173]

I think the problem with predicating is taking into account injuries. 4 years ago I would have said Nomar was going to make the HOF easily. Then he hurt his wrist and has never been the same. I would argue that pictures like Hudson and Zito would be HOF but the chance that they get injured before getting big enough stats is way too high.

[istewart]

On another note, do you think David Justice will get in? Though the extended playoffs have not been around long, I think he has the most postseason hits ever. Maybe postseason HRs? Correct me here.

[B00T]

I am looking at Bagwell's stats and not convinced he is a HOF'er. My original comment was posting that I had a feeling he would not be admitted, and in response to Clark saying he is a "cinch"

Ripken is a "cinch", Maddux Clemens, Johnson etc. are "cinches"

Bagwell is far from a cinch.

[housenuts]

Vlad Guerrero will also make it in one day

[B00T]

Look each year how many people get into the hall of fame. 1 or 2? I cant remember the last time more than 2 were chosen in a given year. The years each of these guys retire (probably about 10 to 18 potential HOF's in the next 2-5 years). All of them are not going to get in, and there a ton of people who deserve to be in before Bagwell.

[Jack of Arcades]

There's no way in hell Justice gets in, nor should he.

[Jack of Arcades]

There's no way Bagwell doesn't get in unless it gets out that he raped kids or something. Even then, it might not matter. See Kirby Puckett.

[James282]

Andruw Jones is considered by many major league coaches and historians as the best fielding center fielder of all time. He's like the Ozzie Smith of his position, but he hits a lot of homeruns.

And while it's a long ways off, Scott Rolen will almost definitely make the hall of fame if he continues as he is. Best fielding third baseman in the game and probably the third best hitter(maybe 2nd) behind A-rod and Beltre.
-James

[Jack of Arcades]

A player has 15 years on the ballot as long as they get more than 5% of the ballot.

[Jack of Arcades]

I forgot about Rolen, he's one of the top 10 most valuable players in baseball every year.

[Steve McQueen]

[ QUOTE ]
As much as I hate the Yankees, Mariano Rivera is almost guaranteed. So's Curt Schilling.

I wouldn't discount the possibility, assuming continuted performance, of a guy like Torii Hunter.

[/ QUOTE ]

Schilling is not guaranteed. Haha. He has two years left at most, and his ERA is not under 3. That's usually a requirement if you don't even have 200 career wins.

I'd say there's a 75% chance Schill doesn't make the Hall.

Anyway, istewart:

Mariano is a lock.

Piazza is a lock.

Palmeiro is a lock.

Sosa is a lock.

Griffey is a lock.

Forgetting a few, istewart? You forgot at least 20 active players who are likely to make it. I've just named a few you've forgotten.

[Steve McQueen]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not positive Schilling is a shoo-in

[/ QUOTE ]
How in the world can you not be positive? Also, people are forgetting Pedro.

[/ QUOTE ]

LMAO. Why do people insist Schilling is a lock?

First of all, he's never even won a CY Young. He only has 184 career wins, over 17 years. He's never won an ERA title. His adjusted ERA+ is 32 among all active pitchers.

Sure, Schilling helped the Sox win a World Series. But that doesn't mean he deserves induction.

Mike Mussina has less years in baseball, more wins, and arguably better stats.

Schill is not likely to make the Hall unless he has two or three more GREAT years.

[Jack of Arcades]

I definitely think if Schill has two years like last year he'll easily get in. It's the reverse Barry Larkin/Roberto Alomar.

[Steve McQueen]

Alomar definitely deserves induction-Robbie that is. He's one of the greatest second basemen of all time, and his offensive stats justify it.

Schilling, no. He pitched in an era of decent pitching and he has been an above average pitching, but he hasn't dominated like a Clemens or a Johnson. I say he retires after next year, due to his ankle injury or another one, and doesn't make the hall.

And if Schill gets in then Mussina is a lock.

I also notice that no one mentioned Glavine, or at least I think no one did.

Glavine is a lock for the Hall.

[istewart]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As much as I hate the Yankees, Mariano Rivera is almost guaranteed. So's Curt Schilling.

I wouldn't discount the possibility, assuming continuted performance, of a guy like Torii Hunter.

[/ QUOTE ]

Schilling is not guaranteed. Haha. He has two years left at most, and his ERA is not under 3. That's usually a requirement if you don't even have 200 career wins.

I'd say there's a 75% chance Schill doesn't make the Hall.

Anyway, istewart:

Mariano is a lock.

Piazza is a lock.

Palmeiro is a lock.

Sosa is a lock.

Griffey is a lock.

Forgetting a few, istewart? You forgot at least 20 active players who are likely to make it. I've just named a few you've forgotten.

[/ QUOTE ]

"Shoo-ins" means "lock." "Likely to make it" does not imply shoo-in. There aren't 20 locks that I'm missing.

I think Juan Gonzalez is fringe, Vizquel, Smoltz as well.

[Steve McQueen]

You missed 5 obvious locks.


You missed Palmeiro: Dude, he has 550+ homers, and is very, very close to 3000 hits. Lock.

Sosa is nearing 600 homers. Lock.

Griffey is over 500 homers. Lock.

Piazza has more home runs than any other catcher in MLB history. He is a lock, just like I-Rod is.

Rivera is a lock for obvious reasons.

[siccjay]

I think Larkin is in regardless.

[istewart]

Yes, 5 locks. Except I mentioned Sosa and I welcomed people that I was forgetting since I knew I was missing some. I agree with pretty much all of those guys.

[Steve McQueen]

Larkin is not a lock. He was a very decent shortstop but he played in the era of A-Rod, Jeter, Ripken, and Ozzie Smith.

[bholdr]

Lou pinella, too.

[Jack of Arcades]

Barry Larkin was nowhere near a "very decent shortstop." Barry Larkin was a [censored] awesome shortstop.

Larkin's offensive peak was greater than Jeter's and comparable to Nomar's. Meanwhile, Nomar and Jeter can no longer play shortstop anywhere near as well as Larkin could. Only A-Rod is any better than Larkin and even then comparing peaks it's not an amazing difference.

[Steve McQueen]

Lmao. Are you telling me that you think Larkin is comparable to A-Rod? If A-Rod retired right now, he'd be a first ballot Hall of Famer, and he's only played for 10 years. Larkin has played twice as long.

A-Rod pwns Larkin.

A-Rod BA: .305
Larkin BA: .205

A-Rod Homers: 381
Larkin Homers: 198

A-Rod RBI: 1098
Larkin RBI: 960

I could go on and on, and A-Rod has only played for 10 years. Larkin has played for 20.

Give me a BREAK.

Don't ever compare Larkin to A-Rod.

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
Glavine has a shot, but he's not a lock... although the sooner he stops playing, the better his chances.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that he is not a lock, but I think a few mediocre seasons would actually help more than hurt, as long as he gets 12-15 wins. He only needs 38 wins to hit the magic 300, at which point he would definately be a lock.

[istewart]

Rodriguez would NOT be a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer if he retired today. He would barely squeak in. You're kidding yourself if you think otherwise.

[istewart]

McQueen, if you think Larkin's career BA is .205, stop posting here. Don't add lies to bad arguments.

[Steve McQueen]

It was a [censored] typo.

I meant .295

Way to ignore the argument.

Look at his other stats. A-Rod has played for half the time Larkin has, and has double his HRs and more RBIs, and only 600 less hits.

[Steve McQueen]

You admitted earlier you don't know as much about baseball as you should, and you're proclaiming that he wouldn't be a first ballot hall of famer.

You're a total idiot.

There's no other way to say it.

Do some RESEARCH:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/rodrial01.shtml

Black Ink: Batting - 40 (36) (Average HOFer ~ 27)
Gray Ink: Batting - 136 (117) (Average HOFer ~ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 54.1 (50) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 211.5 (33) (Likely HOFer &gt; 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

A-Rod will be a first ballot hall of famer. Why don't you do a poll in OOT?

[Kevin]

Larkin was a 12 time all star and 1995 mvp as well as a 30/30 guy in 1996.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/larkiba01.shtml

In this age of watered down stats, it is all relative and the 12x all-star selection shows that he, along with Oz were the dominant players at the toughest position in the field.

He didn't do backflips when he went onto the field, and he didn't play a bunch of games in a row, but he was the leader of an overmatched team that won the world series and led them to the NLCS in '95.

I am a big Reds fan and a bigger BL fan, so I tend to be partial, but dude got it done.

On the contrast, someone like Palmiero made only 4 all-star games, finished in the top 5 in MVP voting only once (5th in '95) and played DH in hitter friendly parks such as Camden Yards and the BP at Arlington.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/palmera01.shtml

Rivera will get in, but I will protest. Any reliever is a reliever only because they couldn't go 9 in the minors (let the flames begin, but I cannot stand seeing relievers go into the hall). DH's should be severly discounted (Thomas, Palmiero, etc.) and only put in if their offensive stats are far and away better than their position playing counterparts - and by offensive stats I mean top 5 MVP balloting (Thomas could get a pass here)
Top 10 MVP
1991-AL-3
1992-AL-8
1993-AL-1
1994-AL-1
1995-AL-8
1996-AL-8
1997-AL-3
2000-AL-2

I am for a two tiered hall - one for immortals like Ruth, Aaron, etc. and the other for strong performers relative to their peers. If we start putting a lot of the inflated stats '90's hitters in, then Jim Kaat (283 wins, fantastic fielder, good hitting pitcher), Tommy John (288 wins, transformed the game with the comeback from sugery that bears his name), and Bert Blyleven (287 wins 3700 strikeouts) should be ushered in as well.

JMHO, of course, but an opinion nonetheless

[Steve McQueen]

Ridiculous.

Kaat does not deserve induction. The pitcher has one of the easiest fielding positions, and 18 gold gloves at that position does not impress me.

And yeah he had 283 wins, but that's because he pitched for like 25 years. He also had almost 250 losses.

Palmeiro has played over 80% of his games at a fielding position(1B or OF). He has 550+ homers. He'll be in.

[Steve McQueen]

Let's test your baseball acumen.

Do you believe A-Rod would/should be a first ballot Hall of Famer if he retired today?

Istewart got it wrong.

[istewart]

[ QUOTE ]
You admitted earlier you don't know as much about baseball as you should, and you're proclaiming that he wouldn't be a first ballot hall of famer.

You're a total idiot.

There's no other way to say it.

Do some RESEARCH:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/rodrial01.shtml

Black Ink: Batting - 40 (36) (Average HOFer ~ 27)
Gray Ink: Batting - 136 (117) (Average HOFer ~ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 54.1 (50) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 211.5 (33) (Likely HOFer &gt; 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

A-Rod will be a first ballot hall of famer. Why don't you do a poll in OOT?

[/ QUOTE ]

I never admitted I don't know as much about baseball as I should, I admitted to doing the poll quickly and not putting enough time in to think of everyone.

A-Rod has played for TEN YEARS. That is not a full career, not even close. It's the reason there are people that don't believe Koufax should be in the HOF. It's not as if he's averaged .350 for his career so far. His numbers are very close to being HOF worthy at this point, but he is nowhere near a first-ballot candidate.

If he continues to perform at this level, he will be a first-ballot HOFer. That's a bit different from saying he's one today.

[ThaSaltCracka]

*yawn*

[Steve McQueen]

Koufax shouldn't be a Hall of Famer?

Let's see:

two time World Series MVP
Won the MVP(AS A PITCHER)-back when there was one for all of baseball, not one per league
Won 3 Cy Youngs- back when only one for all of baseball was given out, and not one per league
Got 3 Triple Crowns. THREE TRIPLE CROWNS. He led all of baseball's pitchers in STRIKEOUTS, ERA, and WINS, in 3 different years. Think about that for a second.

Led the league in ERA for 5 straight years.
Led the league in strikeouts for 4 years.

Now you didn't say that you don't think Koufax should have been excluded from the Hall, but you did mention that some have this belief.

Some also believe that Koufax is one of the greatest pitchers of all time. I happen to believe he's top 5.

No one griped when Sanders played 10 years in the NFL and then left. He's top 3 among running backs and I believe the best of all time. That's debatable though.

Your arguments are flawed.

Koufax developed arthritis, and that's why he left the game. He didn't want to aggravate his injury There's no reason to believe he wouldn't have continued to dominate the game like he did from 1962-1966.

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
His numbers are very close to being HOF worthy at this point, but he is nowhere near a first-ballot candidate.

[/ QUOTE ] you are dead wrong broham, and I hate A-Rod.

[Steve McQueen]

He really is. He proves he knows very little about baseball with every post he makes.

And I'm not a big A-Rod fan either. I thought that ACLS ball stunt was bush. But that doesn't mean I can't step back and look at his career and realize that he is one of the greatest players of all time. He is leagues above Larkin.

[anatta]

Trevor Hoffman is 37 years old and he posted a 2.30 ERA with 41 saves in 45 opportunities in 04. His Career ERA is 2.74 with 393 saves. He has adapted to his decreased velocity and can still get outs with his change. I can see him top 500 for his career. Thoughts on possible HOF for Trev?

[Steve McQueen]

Hoffman will get in, as will Gossage eventually. Both deserve it.

Eckersley opened the door for more relievers to enter.

I wouldn't ask istewart's opinion on it, because he believes that Larkin is on A-Rod's level.

[istewart]

I never argued that Larkin was better than ARod. Nor did I say I personally believe Koufax shouldn't be in the Hall of Fame. I introduced that because he has had a very short career so far, as Koufax did. Longevity is key. I know all about Koufax, you don't need to explain it to me.

[Shajen]

[ QUOTE ]
Any reliever is a reliever only because they couldn't go 9 in the minors

[/ QUOTE ]

What about Smoltz?

I mean, everyone in Atlanta thinks he should be a starting pitcher, yet he's the best closer the city's ever had. If he goes, he goes as a starting pitcher right?

[Steve McQueen]

Yes he's only played 10 years, but it's about quality as well as quantity. And A-Rod has packed a lot of quality into his 10 years.


And yes you did insinuate that Larkin was as good as A-Rod. I never said that you said he was better, but you did insinuate that he was as good. You insinuated that Larkin's peak was similar to A-Rod's and thus Larkin deserves HOF induction. That's basically saying Larkin is comparable to A-Rod.

Let's look at some stats again:

A-Rod RBI: more than Larkin, in half the time.

A-Rod HR: DOUBLE Larkin's total, in half the time. In other words, A-Rod has hit 4 times as many home runs per year on average than A-Rod. A-Rod has AVERAGED like 38 home runs a year since he has joined MLB.

[istewart]

[ QUOTE ]
Hoffman will get in, as will Gossage eventually. Both deserve it.

Eckersley opened the door for more relievers to enter.

I wouldn't ask istewart's opinion on it, because he believes that Larkin is on A-Rod's level.

[/ QUOTE ]

Show me where I said that, please. Learn to read.

[istewart]

Jesus Christ McQueen... read the thread through. The only time I brought up Larkin was when you mistyped his batting average as being 100 points below what it really is.

[Steve McQueen]

The relievers can't go 9 crap is garbage.

Of course most can't go 9, but baseball needs relievers. Starters only go about 6 innings on average, and yet Pedro will get in. Pedro only averages about 6 innings per start, and he is not very durable, but he'll still get in. Why? Because he's a [censored] awesome pitcher.

That's why Mariano will get in as well.

There never used to be specialized relief pitchers like we have now, but the sport has changed. Eckersley opened the doors for more top relievers to enter the hall. Ask any major leaguer who they would rather face in an inning: Mariano or any starting pitcher in baseball today? Most won't say Mariano. Most won't say Gagne. These guys are feared.

[istewart]

I am a Rodriguez fan, and I do think that in two or so more years he will be a first ballot HOFer. I shouldn't have said he's not even close, I don't really think that. If he retired today, I think he'd make it, but not immediately.

[Steve McQueen]

I meant to direct some of the Larkin posts to Jack of Arcadese, but you jumped on me for mistyping Larkin's BA, so you diverted me.

What you DID say was that A-Rod would not be a first ballot hall of famer if he retired today. You're quite wrong about that.

[istewart]

Okay.

[Steve McQueen]

Yes he would make it immediately after becoming eligible. He'd make it just as surely as Wade Boggs made it this year, with around 90% of the vote.

[Jack of Arcades]

No. You said:

[ QUOTE ]
He was a very decent shortstop but he played in the era of A-Rod, Jeter, Ripken, and Ozzie Smith.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I might've misread, but I was sure you mentioned Jeter, Nomar, and A-Rod originally.

I said he was better than Jeter, and his peak was comparable to Nomar. Ripken's peak and Larkin's peak are similar. Larkin is clearly worse than A-Rod, but he's the only person you listed that is noticably better (and even then, you aren't giving Larkin much credit at all).

I mean, Glavine's no Maddux, Randy, or Roger - but you'd induct him, right?

Larkin was clearly one of the most dominant players at his position, much more so than anyone like Glavine.

Go ahead, go look at the OPS+ numbers of Larkin. 156. 143. 149. 134. 132. The average shortstop has an OPS+ of like 92. He was consistently one of the best players at his position for ten years.

I want you to name 10 shortstops better than Barry Larkin. Go ahead, try. Only requirements are that they must have played most of their games at SS and have the required service time for the hall. I'll get you started!

Honus Wagner
A-Rod
Ripken, Jr.
Ozzie Smith
Luke Appling
Robin Yount

Wheeeeee I'm starting to blank around here. Who else?

Lou Boudreau is pretty close?
Alan Trammell maybe possibly?
Rico Petrocelli? C'mon!
Ernie Banks? I'll let you break the rules to include him!

Out of Larkin, Ripken, Smith, and Trammell, Larkin was the best hitter at SS of his era. He missed a lot of games but was still slick with the glove and dominated the league. That is not a "very decent shortstop."

So no, Larkin isn't comparable to A-Rod (the only person comparable to A-Rod is the greatest shortstop of all time - Honus Wagner). However, it's very clear he's a top 10 shortstop and easily deserving of the Hall of Fame.

[Jack of Arcades]

This is just plain wrong. A-Rod is the 2nd best shortstop ever.

[Jack of Arcades]

While you are correct about certain things, you use faulty reasoning. Comparing raw stats it's disengenuous because A-Rod's played on better offensive teams in better offensive leagues and better offensive ball parks.

This is not to say he's not better than Larkin (he quite clearly is), but simply that there are better ways of doing things (EqA, but it's not readily available unless you have prospectus. OPS+ is a decent metric).

[Steve McQueen]

A-Rod's OPS+ pwns Larkin's.

[RogerZBT]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Glavine has a shot, but he's not a lock... although the sooner he stops playing, the better his chances.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that he is not a lock, but I think a few mediocre seasons would actually help more than hurt, as long as he gets 12-15 wins. He only needs 38 wins to hit the magic 300, at which point he would definately be a lock.

[/ QUOTE ]

He'd need at LEAST 3 seasons to get there (probably 4) and there's not telling whether or not he's got 3 in him. Also, by playing more he's probably hurting his winning percentage and career ERA, which are already weak points. If, and only if, he were going to get to 300 does it make sense to play more and I don't think he gets there.

[siccjay]

wow looky what I started...Larkin is a lot better than a "decent" shortstop.

Eric Davis should be in !!!!!!

[RogerZBT]

[ QUOTE ]
Hoffman will get in, as will Gossage eventually. Both deserve it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hoffman is NEVER getting in. With the trouble Gossage, Sutter and Lee Smith are having accumulating votes, Hoffman doesn't have a shot.

[Kevin]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's test your baseball acumen.

Do you believe A-Rod would/should be a first ballot Hall of Famer if he retired today?


[/ QUOTE ]


without a doubt. Juan Gonzalez out to get on his knees every day and thank the BBWAA for the two MVP's that he stole from A-Rod. A-Rod's 1996 season was absolutely awesome and I think the writers held it against him since it was his first full season. Me thinks that he will be in the immortal wing of the hall when it is all said and done and is pretty darn close to it right now.

[Kevin]

[ QUOTE ]
Ridiculous.

Kaat does not deserve induction. The pitcher has one of the easiest fielding positions, and 18 gold gloves at that position does not impress me.

And yeah he had 283 wins, but that's because he pitched for like 25 years. He also had almost 250 losses.

Palmeiro has played over 80% of his games at a fielding position(1B or OF). He has 550+ homers. He'll be in.


[/ QUOTE ]

Of the three pitchers that I mentioned, I honestly think that only Blyleven should merit any consideration for (albeit small) - for being on the all-time strikeout list as well as the 287 wins. However, he never won a Cy Young, gave up a ton of gopher balls, was always the guy traded at the deadline because he could make teams marginally better, but a team wasn't building around him, etc., etc. I guess the greater point was looking at history, when 250 wins in today's game is consideration for HOF consideration (Glavine, Moose, etc.), one would look at the rearview mirror and think that 283, 287, and 288 should be mortal locks. So, in the past, 500 bombs normally meant being an annual all-star, top 5 MVP guy, and league leader. So, in many ways, I look at Palmiero in today's game from a past view forward much the same way that one might look at the 3 pitchers from a current view looking back.

I agree with your view on Koufax BTW, but I do think that he benefitted from his good years being at the end of his career versus visa versa. Don Newcombe's stats in his first six years are very comparable to Koufax's last 6. Newcombe found the bottle and faded fast, but the sum of his work, when compared to Koufax is very impressive. There is an obvious bias to fading out. I am glad that it didn't work against Boggs - since his last decade didn't compare at all to his first decade and many dismissed it to the green monster effect. Grif gets overlooked now, but had he retired in 2000 and took up another hobby, he would have been voted in with probably 85% of the vote on the first ballot.

I read Dan and Keith's the big show and there was an entire chaper about the HOF (this was about 10 years ago) Olberman said that he used to be very uptight about who got in, but once Wes Ferrell got in, he figured that anyone better than him (about 40% of all players who ever put on a uniform) deserved to go in.

On a seperate note, what do you think about Don Drysdale and his case? I think his career parallels Glavine's in a lot of ways. He was an elite pitcher in his generation but overshadowed by Sandy.

[Kevin]

[ QUOTE ]
There never used to be specialized relief pitchers like we have now, but the sport has changed. Eckersley opened the doors for more top relievers to enter the hall. Ask any major leaguer who they would rather face in an inning: Mariano or any starting pitcher in baseball today? Most won't say Mariano. Most won't say Gagne. These guys are feared.


[/ QUOTE ]

I remember when Dave Ragetti was a starter, I think he won 14 games and won rookie of the year and threw a no hitter on July 4. The next year he became a reliever and, if I remember right, the reason that was given was because he started so strong but faded fast. They figured if he was that good for his 30 pitches, he would be a great closer if he only threw those 30 pitches. He went on to have a 46 save season and proved most of those theories correct - but it really led me down this "failed starter" mentality.

Gagne's last season as a starter (2001)
6-7, 4.75 ERA, 144 hits, 90 runs in 151 innings. I am guessing that he probably wasn't feared that season. However, when you put him in a bases empty situation and let him throw 12-18 pitches, he can bring the heat. Maybe he would have developed into a better starting pitcher, but that 2001 season really resonates.

I think that they should weight the save - for example, if a pitcher comes in with the bases loaded and no one out, and gets out without giving up a run, it is a 10 point save, if he comes in up 3 in the 9th with the bases empty it is a 1 point (barely) save.

Sutter changed the game with the splitter, Gossage was a scary mofo - just ask Ron Cey. Lee Smith - a lot of saves, but not in the class of those two. At least Gossage, Sutter, and Fingers throw 2 and 3 inning saves and faced a lot of rocky situations.

I just think that there are a lot of hard throwing midling starters right now that could go to the pen and get 40 saves - the Reds seem to prove that year after year.

fun discussion.
Later,
Kevin

[Steve McQueen]

Drysdale deserved it. He was decent with the bat, a fantastic pitcher on a team with a legend, and he pitched great in the postseason.

[Steve McQueen]

Mariano's greatness cannot be denied.

Career era of 2.43

Postseason era of 0.75. Went 23 straight postseason games from 1998-2000 without giving up a postseason earned run.

The guy's only given up 40 homers in his career(586 games). 11 of those were in the season where he started some games. Since he's been a full time reliever, he's only given up 29 homers in 567 games(9 full seasons). Pretty incredibly when you think about it.

6 time All-Star.

Mo is a first ballot lock.

His dominance in the closer role, postseason especially, has secured him a spot at Cooperstown.

[Kevin]

[ QUOTE ]
What about Smoltz?

I mean, everyone in Atlanta thinks he should be a starting pitcher, yet he's the best closer the city's ever had. If he goes, he goes as a starting pitcher right?


[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that he was able to come in and be an overpowering reliever when he could have burned out as a starter really resonates the arguement. With his arm in the shape that it was, he would have a tough time getting to 70-80 pitches as a starter, yet he anchored the relief corps. Now, if he goes back this year and wins 18 games with 240 innings pitched - that will be impressive. You don't have to sell me on the merits of Smoltz. Lonnie Smith cost him his chance at immortality in the '91 series. He is a gamer. I was always amazed at how Atlanta would wheel him out for the most important post season games versus his Cy Young brethren. I think it had to do with his great stuff. He could be off and still win or on and dominant. If Glavine was off or not getting the corners, he was toast - and you don't have margin for error in game seven.

If he goes, it is much like Eck as the combined work of the two jobs - but I think that his work as a starter was much more impressive - Cy young winner, big game pitcher, etc. Eck was probably more impressive as a reliever (his '90 season was unreal, but a lot of bases empty situations).

[Kevin]

[ QUOTE ]
Postseason era of 0.75. Went 23 straight postseason games from 1998-2000 without giving up a postseason earned run.


[/ QUOTE ]

While he was a big reason that they won 3 straight and that should weigh in his favor, do you think that it should be weighted against him that he was on the mound when they lost in 2001 and had his issues against the Sox this year?

Not meaning to draw your ire - as you seem pretty passionate about Mo, but if the closer's job is to close the door and, in theory, they should be breaking open the bubbly when they play Enter Sandman, the fact that he couldn't close out those championship seasons might count against him with reliever-prejudiced HOF voters.

Just having some fun...no offense meant...I just think they should give the relievers the rolaids award, and leave the MVP to position players and Cy Young to starters and keep them out of the HOF. Kind of like putting a kicker in the football HOF. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Later,
Kevin

[Steve McQueen]

That's not fair. The MVP rules strictly say that all players should be considered for it. Some writers refuse to consider pitchers for it and it's not fair. Koufax only won it once and arguably should have won it all 3 years that he won his Cy Youngs and Triple Crowns. He WAS the best player in baseball those 3 years. His achievements were more impressive than Mays's in my opinion.


Yes Mo is responsible for 2001, but it's just fact that without Mo, the Yanks would not have any of their 4 rings, or their 2001 and 2003 AL pennants for that matter. Nobody's perfect, but Mo is close enough.

[istewart]

Pedro should've won in 1999, not Pudge, IMHO (I think 1999, maybe 2000).

[Jack of Arcades]

A nice article on Bert's HOF worthiness (http://www.all-baseball.com/richbeat/archives/011878.html)

What do the following people have in common?

Nolan Ryan, Phil Niekro, Juan Marichal, Robin Roberts, Don Sutton
Answers in white!<font color="white">
A1: They all are in the Hall of Fame
A2: None of them have a Cy Young. </font>

Here's another!

Warren Spahn, Don Sutton, Robin Roberts, Phil Niekro, Fergie Jenkins
Answers in white!
<font color="white">A1: All Allowed more home runs than Blyleven
A2: All are in the Hall of Fame</font>

BTW, there's no way 40% of baseball players are better than Wes Ferrell. Wes threw 2300 above average innings and had 1300 league average PAs. Very valuable player.

[Jack of Arcades]

Sure does, now compare their top 5 seasons. Let's also wait until A-Rod has a decline phase and plays half his games at 3B.

[Kevin]

[ QUOTE ]
BTW, there's no way 40% of baseball players are better than Wes Ferrell. Wes threw 2300 above average innings and had 1300 league average PAs. Very valuable player.


[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, it has been 10 years since I read the book, it was Rick Ferrell, the catcher inducted in 1984 by the Vets committee. He was born in Durham NC in 1905, Wes was born in Greensboro in 1908. Are they brothers?

Olberman made the insinuation. He said that the Vets Committee traded votes for their buddies and one year, they somehow all punched the Rick Ferrell ticket. His stats don't look daunting, but, then again, he played catcher in a day when they weren't big run producers.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/f/ferreri01.shtml

[Jack of Arcades]

Aha, that's a better fit. And yes, they're brothers.

[Kevin]

[ QUOTE ]
A nice article on Bert's HOF worthiness


[/ QUOTE ]

Great article. Count me as one who dismissed him as better than average but not hall worthy - a guy who got wins based upon years of service and chewing innings. That was pretty compelling. I am sold

[jesusarenque]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En respuesta a:</font><hr />
Yankee fan here actually. How did I forget Rivera? Definitely. I'm not positive Schilling is a shoo-in, but even I can't make any great case for him not to be there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Curt Schilling is certainly NOT a HOFer, nevermind a "shoe in." How many good years has he had? Four? Torii Hunter could continue his current production for 1,000 years and he still wouldn't deserve to get in.

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yankee fan here actually. How did I forget Rivera? Definitely. I'm not positive Schilling is a shoo-in, but even I can't make any great case for him not to be there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Curt Schilling is certainly NOT a HOFer, nevermind a "shoe in." How many good years has he had? Four? Torii Hunter could continue his current production for 1,000 years and he still wouldn't deserve to get in.

[/ QUOTE ] I agree, I don't know how Schilling is a shoo-in at all.

[jesusarenque]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En respuesta a:</font><hr />
Lmao. Are you telling me that you think Larkin is comparable to A-Rod? If A-Rod retired right now, he'd be a first ballot Hall of Famer, and he's only played for 10 years. Larkin has played twice as long.

A-Rod pwns Larkin.

A-Rod BA: .305
Larkin BA: .205

A-Rod Homers: 381
Larkin Homers: 198

A-Rod RBI: 1098
Larkin RBI: 960

I could go on and on, and A-Rod has only played for 10 years. Larkin has played for 20.

Give me a BREAK.

Don't ever compare Larkin to A-Rod.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you realize that batting average and RBI have tell you almost nothing about how good a player is?

[jesusarenque]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En respuesta a:</font><hr />
maybe not a shoo-in, but how bout omar vizquel?

[/ QUOTE ]

Has the discussion changed? Is this a different topic? You aren't talking about the MLB HOF are you?

[jesusarenque]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En respuesta a:</font><hr />
Piazza will probably eventually get in, but I don't think he's a certainty. His fielding is/was atrocious.

[/ QUOTE ]

Piazza's defense isn't as bad as everyone makes it out to be. It doesn't matter anyway, because he has been so good with the bat he could play catcher with a frying pan for a mitt and still get in.

[jesusarenque]

Biggio hasn't been mentioned much here, but he is a HOFer. One of the absolute best players of the 1990s, he will without question get in. I can't believe people are making arguments for clowns like Schilling, Vizquel, Hunter, etc. and not mentioning Biggio.

Oh, and even though he's not playing in MLB at the moment, Ricky Henderson is a lock.

[Steve McQueen]

Tony Gwynn...

no one mentioned him.

90% at least in balloting.

[Steve McQueen]

[ QUOTE ]
Pedro should've won in 1999, not Pudge, IMHO (I think 1999, maybe 2000).

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

[Jack of Arcades]

I think we were discussing active players only.

[Jack of Arcades]

Yeah, Biggio's clearly underappreciated, even though he's essentially usesless now.

[B00T]

[ QUOTE ]
but he hasn't dominated like a Clemens or a Johnson.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know this quote has nothing to do with Bagwell but its the same point I am trying to make.

When the hell did Bagwell ever dominate? Use your arguement for Rolen but swap Rolen with Bagwell. He is a top player year in and year out. He never was someone you rattled off when talking about the best player at the time. Hell, even Albert Belle was heaps better than him back in the 90's. He was at best a top 10 player each year, and some years since 2000 not on the radar.

He had a great career but he never dominated anything, and was never someone you spouted out EVER when saying name the 5 best players in baseball right now.

[andyfox]

I doubt it. His career as a player was average, as has his been his managerial career.

[andyfox]

I wouldn't vote for him if his career ended today. Only 1300+ hits.

His situation may be a lot like the old-timer Chuck Klein, who put up godly like numbers around 1930 playing in Baker Bowl for the Phillies, a ballpark that produced Denver-like numbers.

Larry Walker is another interesting case. My sense is he will probably eventually get in.

[andyfox]

But that might change. The voters' perceptions change over time. Used to be they looked at the triple crown numbers only. If Rivera gets in, there may be a move to get Hoffman in, since they were contemporaries with similar stats. Rivera's advantage is the post-season play.

[andyfox]

I agree. Nobody will care about his fielding. Supposedly Rogers Hornsby was a poor fielder too. Nobody cares.

[david050173]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but he hasn't dominated like a Clemens or a Johnson.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know this quote has nothing to do with Bagwell but its the same point I am trying to make.

When the hell did Bagwell ever dominate? Use your arguement for Rolen but swap Rolen with Bagwell. He is a top player year in and year out. He never was someone you rattled off when talking about the best player at the time. Hell, even Albert Belle was heaps better than him back in the 90's. He was at best a top 10 player each year, and some years since 2000 not on the radar.

He had a great career but he never dominated anything, and was never someone you spouted out EVER when saying name the 5 best players in baseball right now.

[/ QUOTE ]


Look at bagwells stats in 1993-1994 and tell me who were the better players in baseball those years. There was a reason he was voted MVP. You can argue he didn't put up those numbers long enough if you want...

[RogerZBT]

Don Mattingly and Kirby Puckett were contemporaries with similar numbers. Puckett was clearly a HoF'er while Mattingly just as clearly wasn't. Hoffman is clearly not.

I'd wager Gossage, Sutter, Smith, Rivera, Smoltz and Gagne are the only possible HoF'er closers we know of right now.

[Jack of Arcades]

I don't see what you're trying to say with your Albert Belle comment - Belle was on pace to make the Hall of Fame before his career endng injury.

As for Bagwell, when did he ever dominate? Well, he was the best 1B of the 90s... excepting maybe McGwire.

[Jack of Arcades]

Kirby Puckett is clearly not a HOFer, and there numbers were far from similar, as Mattingly was a 1B...

[Steve McQueen]

Kirby didn't deserve induction, and neither does Mattingly.

[Mano]

Anyone think Barry Larkin has a shot? He won an MVP, and was the best shortstop in baseball in the era between Ozzie and A-rod/Jeter/Nomar.

[Jack of Arcades]

Hahahaha, yeah, I think Larkin has a shot (and he was better than Jeter and Nomar)

[Steve McQueen]

Jeter pwns Larkin.

Jeter is almost a first-ballot lock. After 2006 he will be.

[Paluka]

Barry Larkin should get in. It really is a shame that players who really started in the mid 80s get compared to guy's whose careers stared in the early 90s. You end up with one guy having his peak years when a good year was .280, 31 HR, 85 RBI and another guy playing in an era when a good year was .332, 47 HR, 152 RBI.

[Jack of Arcades]

Jeter doesn't come close to "pwning" Larkin. Jeter is better at two things, and that's being overrated and playing the whole season.

You still don't understand that Barry Larkin is like the 7th best shortstop of ALL TIME. He should be an immortal lock, no doubt about it, and anyone who doesn't vote for him should be castrated.

[Steve McQueen]

Look, it's clear that you have a Reds bias, and that's fine. Just admit it.

[Bill Murphy]

[ QUOTE ]
he pitched great in the postseason.

[/ QUOTE ]

HUH? I apologize in advance if I'm wrong, but IIRC Bill James once wrote a long article basically saying that Drysdale was a terrible "clutch/big game" pitcher, although I don't think he said that Drysdale shouldn't be in the hall.

Now, as I look back on the above paragraph I understand that "clutch/big game" isn't necessarily the same as "post season". One of the ESPN guys wrote an article last fall comparing Schilling's post season record to Gibson's &amp; others.

Schilling will be a huge argument when he becomes eligible, and he'll campaign shamelessly for induction. I'm a big "post season" guy, and his post season stats are superb(even tho he milked the bloody sock thing dry), but I can't see it.

Glavine'll prolly groan across the 300 win line, so he's in. Clemens, Maddux, Randy are locks(duh). Pedro, yeah I guess; never liked or trusted him. Bonds, despite the juice, will sail in. Sosa, oh boy. Gonna be some chest beating/pontificating when he comes up.

[CCass]

[ QUOTE ]
Kirby didn't deserve induction...

[/ QUOTE ]

And you think you are qualified to talk about HOF'ers? Puckett's career is very comparable to Drysdale's, both were dominant while they played, and both had their careers cut short due to injury.

[Bill Murphy]

[ QUOTE ]
Lonnie Smith cost him his chance at immortality in the '91 series. He is a gamer.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cox never should've yanked him after seven innings in Game 7. "We can't ask you for any more than that." What was Smoltz at the time, 21 and blazing 'em in there? Whatta maroon. Charlie Leibrandt or whoever it was, jesus, that's who you want the WSOB riding on. Smoltz was a better starter then Eck and at least his equal as a reliever. He's in. I wasn't crazy about Eck getting in; just a horrific choke job in '88 WSOB.

Cox is a great manager(I guess), but he defo shoulda got more than one ring out of that group. The ol' Phil Jackson/Chuck Noll rule.

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
Look, it's clear that you have a Reds bias, and that's fine. Just admit it.

[/ QUOTE ]

AHAHAHAHAHAHA! I'm a Braves fan...