Pocket Pairs on Paired Flops poll.

[OrianasDaad]

Which flop would you prefer, and why? Consider it a typical low limit game, average of about 4-5 players to the flop.

You hold 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif.

Flops
#1 - 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
#2 - 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

[cowboyzfan]

Unless I am missing something, which is likely, I would prefer flop 1. Even in no fold'em holdem it is more likely for an opponent to hold a 9 in his hand than a 3. People love playing hands like 109o.

Also, if your opponent does have trips, you are almost drawing dead to trip 9s but still have two outs to beat trip threes.

[Reef]

aren't people more inclined to play a hand with a 9 in it than with a 3

edit: doh, he beat me by a second

[kmvenne]

the fact that the 9 is the card more likely to be seen in someone's hand is exactly why 399 is better. Think of it like this. On 399 you are losing to exactly two cards that didn't have you beat before, excluding 33. On 339 that goes up to 5, including 3 of the more likley nines out. 77 draws almost as slim against 99 as it does against 999. Id rather put a 9 on the board and not lose to a 3.

[pzhon]

If the flop is 339, anyone with one of the 5 3s and 9s is ahead of you.

If the flop is 993, anyone with one of the 2 9s is ahead of you. It's much less likely that someone holds one of those cards.

I don't see why so many people voted for 339.

[Seether]

Um, you still have 2 outs against either trip hand. 7s full is > 3 9s or 3 3s

[cowboyzfan]

true

[SenecaJim]

I'm not thinking trips. I'm thinking i like the 9's because it so reduces that I'm up against top pair. There is a very good chance my 7's and 9's are good. It might not be and I will judge as the hand goes along, but the question is which flop do you prefer. Definitely pair 9's.

[JoshuaD]

Another vote for 399. On that flop you have a pretty decent hand, on 339, you don't have much.

It's for the same reasons everyone else has said.

[Kaz The Original]

Huh?

[HopeydaFish]

[ QUOTE ]
Which flop would you prefer, and why? Consider it a typical low limit game, average of about 4-5 players to the flop.

You hold 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif.

Flops
#1 - 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
#2 - 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

[/ QUOTE ]

When holding two overcards, many opponents would call to see the turn on a flop of 339 as it would be unlikely that someone saw the flop with a 3x. With a hand like 77, you stand a better chance of chasing out your opponents when you bet after a flop of 399 because (as has already been stated) it is more plausible for you to have called with a 9T, or 9xs.

[Michael Davis]

The fact that 30 people answered flop #1 is laughable.

-Michael

[cowboyzfan]

[ QUOTE ]
Huh?

[/ QUOTE ]

After my original answer I came back and edited and added the second part (the mistake). I kind of rearranged the hand in my mind and was thinking of simply would you rather have a pair of 7s up against a set of 3s or 9s. I wish when replying I could see the original post while typing.

Anyway, you can see that I acknowledged the mistake 4 hours before your post. Furthermore, I even prefaced my original post with the statement "I am probably missing something" I was right! /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Reef]

[ QUOTE ]
The fact that 30 people answered flop #1 is laughable.

-Michael

[/ QUOTE ]

I put exactly 3 seconds into thinking before I answered

[cowboyzfan]

I put two seconds, that is why my answer was first /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Actually I could care less if it is laughable, if it is so clear, then it will be a learning experience. I haven't even had time to read this thread and see why it is so obvious (so why the poll?).

[OrianasDaad]

[ QUOTE ]
(so why the poll?).

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to get people thinking about it.

[jwombles]

Bravo on a simple yet thought provoking scenario.

I voted for the flop with the paired 9's. Mainly because when the board pairs nines, it is less likely that anyone holds a 9 out there that can beat me b/c there are only two left in the deck. It's a probability question.

With the flopped pair of 3's it is less likely that someone may hold a 3 that can beat you but now there are 3 9's in the deck that beat you as well.

Great post!

Wombles

[donkeyradish]

Sane people, which is most people, fold any hand pre-flop with a non-paired 3.

So I'm more concerned about the 9. If there are two nines showing its likely no other nines are out.

I don't like my chances if more than 1 opponent sees a turn card (& its another overcard)

[Hermlord]

[ QUOTE ]
Sane people, which is most people...

[/ QUOTE ]

If you believe this, you clearly haven't been paying enough attention.

Oh, and flop #2 is far better.

[barry111]

I voted for flop 1. I admit that I didn't give it much thought, but after reading the responses I can see why flop 2 is the correct choice. Thanks for posting this. This is why I come here.

[SenecaJim]

Thank you for this poll. For the first time in my life I can say I fit in with the majority. (new expeience)

[axioma]

my god, i just read this thread, and the fact the the vote is so close is terrifying.

[dfwsteele]

I love how when people post on here they act as if they have all the answers...
I voted for #1 and after reading I can absolutely see why people would have voted for #2, but my thinking was I would assume I was beaten on the flop by either 9s or 3s, but in the off chance that I got my third 7 I could assume I was ahead, not so with the 9s on the board. I still think that the #2 rational is better but I don't think its as much of a slam dunk as people saw it is $.02

[axioma]

if you spike a 3rd 7 on the second flop of course youre ahead: you have a full house against possible trip 9's.

Its not even remotely close.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
I love how when people post on here they act as if they have all the answers...

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't have all of the answers, but the things that confuse me about are much more complicated than this. Why does that bother you?

[ QUOTE ]
I still think that the #2 rational is better but I don't think its as much of a slam dunk as people saw it is

[/ QUOTE ]
Then you probably should think about it more. It is important to be able to judge the strength of your hand correctly given the flop.

[emonrad87]

[ QUOTE ]
Flop #1: 57 42%


[/ QUOTE ]



Hahaha. 57 people are DEAD WRONG.

[OrianasDaad]

Actually, I read something that prompted this question, and is likely to be the source of much of the confusion.

From WLLHE, Page 84:
[ QUOTE ]
Obviously, if the board is paired over your pocket pair, you can fold at the first opportunity.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that someone having a 9 is a little more likely than having a 3 - but not enough to offset the 5 cards that leave you with two outs against the underpair on the flop. Many loose players will play 32, 43, A3, K3, and even Q3. The same goes for 9's. Loose players play the same as above, but mabye with the addition of hands like J9, and 97.

In almost all circumstances, it is better to have the board paired higher than your hand, unless the flop contains an ace or king in any part of it.

[Michael Davis]

Even if the flop contains an ace or king it's better. Two aces on the board is better than one.

-Michael

[PotatoStew]

[ QUOTE ]
if you spike a 3rd 7 on the second flop of course youre ahead: you have a full house against possible trip 9's.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not quite accurate: Your full house is up against:

possible trip 9's
possible quad 9's
possible higher full house, with an opponent holding 93 or 97
(Edit: and a whole slew of worse hands, certainly)

Not saying that's significant enough to change the answer, but it is something that should at least be briefly considered I would think. It's not quite "of course you're ahead".

[axioma]

well, briefly considered it, despite it being an entirely illogic argument.

now really, this thread needs to die - i thought i might regret bringing it up again...