Do I suck or am I just running badly? I submit that i suck :(

[Nemesis]

Over the past 10k hands i've gone on the dreaded -300 BB run. Of course this leads to self doubt and "am i really a winner" popping into my head a lot. Would any 2-3bb/100 winners mind letting me pour over their PTracker databases. I know this gives an awful lot of info about your own playing style, but i'm desperate. As far as my own raw Ptracker stats go they're fairly mundane, with the exception of WTSD and PFR% which schneids has been so kind to point out to me.

VPIP 20.19%
PFR 11.42%
W$WSF 34.4%
WTSD 36.84%
W$SD 47.57%
Folded SB to steal 78%
Folded BB 56.7%
Attempted to steal 18.6%
BB/100 -3.09

[imitation]

PFR - as you mentioned not high enough, maybe you are overlimping with 1 limper and Axs when this should be a raise or limping AJo i'm not sure. Personally I have no trouble reaching 15 which most people recommend and usually hover a little too high at 18-19.

WtSD is high but as has been pointed out numerous times this is really a style issue.

Your steal stats are weird....

You don't steal enough and probably defend a little more than I think is optimal at low limits where most raises regardless of position are legitimate. The converse is that at low limits people will fit or fold on the flops meaning you can steal quite a lot. Your steal should be up to atleast 30, I personally aim for mid-high 30s. I would defend in the SB only 85-90 and BB 60-65, these numbers can drop some but if you're not confident about your postflop play then I think they shouldn't be this low yet.

What is so striking is that you are defending with such a number of hands yet your VPIP is still quite low, if I defended that much and stole at my current level of 37.29 I think my VPIP would be almost 30.

Can you post your agr factors on each street as well as Fold to River Bet stat?

[Nemesis]

flop 3.31
turn 3.01
river 1.97

When folds :

Never 17.87%
Pre-flop 67.90%
Flop 8%
Turn 3.69%
River 2.54%

Folded to a river bet 44.93%

[naphand]

I say: let us see more of these kind of posts. Maybe the "I truly believe 7BB/100 is possible" noobs might get the message, and realise they are not a poker God after all.

What limit is this sample size over? and how many hands do you have at that limit?

[imitation]

Hey when I break even at 5/10 I'll make a post 26k hands and counting.

[djack]

[ QUOTE ]
Over the past 10k hands i've gone on the dreaded -300 BB run. Of course this leads to self doubt and "am i really a winner" popping into my head a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]
I feel this strongly right now. Playing poker is anything but fun when you always know that someone will hit the river in any big pot.

[wuarhg]

I have about -1bb/100 over my first/last 10,000 hands at 5/10 6-max. My stats look something like this:

VPIP: 20.5%
PFR: 15%
VPIP SB: 30%
Fold SB: 85%
Fold BB: 64%
AtSB: 34%
Won $ WSF: 39.6%
Went to SD: 32%
Won $ at SD: 54%
Aggression: Total (2.7), 3.3/2.6/1.7
Check-raise: 1.32%
Folded to river bet: 41%

Just to compare.

[wahooriver]

While I am probably a 1.5-2 BB/100 5/10 player (I have 28k hands thus far), I will give my standard comments.

I like VP$IP around 25% in the 6 max game. Big pots come from good not great hands. The goal is big pots. Take a few chances - especially in position.

Whenever I see flop and turn aggression >2.5, I suspect over betting. My bias is that numbers like this come when you are not paying enough attention to your opponents. I suggest you review you losing starting hands to check for some clues here.

Check you VP$IP at each position. Do you take advantage of position enough?

We all go through downturns - it is part of the game. Usually when I am running bad, I can analyze my data and find some leaks.

Good luck!!!

[Nemesis]

I have about 30k hands at 1/2 6m, when i began i was signifigantly looser (27-28), went to showdown more, won about the same % I was a small winner <1bb/100 on average =/ This swing put me in the red total for 30k hands.

edit: also i "KNOW" that there is some bad luck contributing to this run as over the past 10k hands KK is a loser, AKs/o down through ATs/o are all in the red or barely green. JJ TT are also break even. That makes me think hey it's just bad luck, but i once again "KNOW" that's not all it is.

[Trix]

Raise more, steal more.

Dont know about the rest and can see postflop play in the stats..

[naphand]

Judging from posts like this one, people really need to realise that 30K just is not a big enough sample for the stats to reveal trends on their own. There should be enough data, combined with what you know about your game, for you to make some adjustments, but it really is about what you know about your game and your typical opponents.

On a downswing of this magnitude, it is easy to do the following:

(1) Become more aggressive on the Flop & Turn with hands like TP or 2nd-pair GK, trying to force out players who you know will either (i) not fold anyway, or (ii) will be drawing live or are ahead.

(2) Call down too often, simply not believing you can keep losing with your premium hands that hit the flop. They must be bluffing some of the time... /images/graemlins/mad.gif

Look closely at your PFR% and be sure that you are raising enough good hands (11% is possible with a bad run of cards, over 10K hands, though not very likely) also check to see you are raising with position, and re-raising enough.

V$IP is ok. Rest look ok, except steal attempts.

You should be comfortable "steal-raising" around 25% even against blinds who never fold. By this I mean you have enough value raises OTB and CO, to be able to hit 25%. Go and spend some time reviewing what hands you should be raising in these spots against 2-3 random hands, it's a lot. 25% is being pretty mean to yourself.

I would say on a bad run, keep your PF and Flop play aggressive (it is still cheap on these streets), be sensible on the flop (don't stick around with hands that will be trouble, or can hit and easily suffer a re-draw, esp. multi-way). Allow yourself the chance to keep folding on those flops that miss, stay in with overcards when you can do so cheaply, and have some kind of extra re-draw potential (when facing a bet), again multi-way. Check/fold overcards with no draws against 3 or more players depending on the flop texture, playing auto-bet into 3-4 players with a 2-suited and connected board is going to lose money in $1/$2.

On the Turn, learn to keep quitting to a CR except where you have big draws or where you have a good read. Passive players raising or CR the Turn usually have the goods. Do not be tempted to always 3-bet a CR with TPTK when the board is 2-suited, they are not always on the flush draw. DO NOT GET FRUSTRATED AND DEMORALISED, even though this is the natural way to feel. Keep reminding yourself what the correct play is, keep watching your opponents.

Get into your mind the idea that the next card does not matter when making your play. Your play is correct for the given situation, regardless of what the next card actually is. Make your play correct, and then make your response to the next card correct. Always re-assess the board, make sure you value-bet.

I was watching $100/$200 on Stars earlier this week and the one feature that was apparent was the players' capacity to just keep value-betting, relentlessly.

[lastcoyote]

This is a tremendous post naphand! These are exactly the kinds of thoughts that are lurking just beneath the surface every time I hit a bad streak.

"Why did I bet that turn with these overcards when I know this guy would have folded the flop if had nothing and will NEVER fold if he has anything?"

"Why did I just call that re-raise instead if capping? I have a good hand now and a monster draw."

"Why did I re-raise his CR? It's like a fugging reflex! I'm probably behind and really barely have enough outs to even call at this point."

Anyway, your post just brought all of these thoughts to the top of my mind. Others probably do the same esp. when running bad. This is probably something I'll read every day before sitting down at the tables.

[crockett]

O.k. seriously! Post of the Year! And I mean it. Of course, I like it so much because it applies directly to me but still this is a hell of a post and I think it should be mandatory reading for anyone who is venturing into $1/2 6-max after coming from say $1/2 or 0.5/1 full ring as an experienced TAG.

I was writing a reply to the original poster but ended up erasing the whole thing because I didn’t like the way it was coming out. I’m glad I did because you summed up exactly what I was trying to say, added even more and did a much better job at writing it clearly.

First of all your points (labeled #1 & #2) are a perfect summary of what I do in the beginning of a lot of my sessions. Why I do it I don’t know but fortunately I recognize it fairly quickly and begin to play more level headed. Unfortunately it results in a lot of break even session. I feel if I could totally eliminate #1 & #2 from game my winrate would increase significantly.

I would like you to elaborate on two things.

#1
You mention re-raising. I have found that at the $1/2 level that the typical players will only raise with premium hands. Re-raising, even with position, with hands less than I would re-raise with in a typical ring game (i.e. AA-JJ, AKs, AK, possibly TT or 99 depending on the situation) has brought me nothing but trouble. However, I seem to be leaning more towards cold calling (it’s very hard for me to do because I’m so anit-cold call) because of the likelihood that many will cold call behind me. (i.e. hands like AJs, KJs, sometimes even JTs, or T9s).

Could you give some examples of cases where you think reraising is appropriate in a 6-max game?

#2
This should be an easy one. I’m kind of slow and I didn’t understand what you meant about the Stars comment. Did you mean that players were just auto betting the flop, turn, and river just because they had raised pre-flop when it probably wasn’t the right thing to do because the flop had missed them so badly and they were getting called down by someone who had paired the board or a strong draw for example?

Is this what you meant by “relentlessly value betting”. This is definitely one of my leaks if that is what you meant.

Great post and thanks!

[Transference]

This is quite possibly the best post I've read on plugging leaks in 6 max, thank you

[rory]

[ QUOTE ]
Do not be tempted to always 3-bet a CR with TPTK when the board is 2-suited, they are not always on the flush draw.


[/ QUOTE ]

You should never do this, heads-up. The reason why is that the guy will bluff the river too almost all of the time, so you win 3BB if he hits and 3BB if he doesn't hit, two on the turn and one on the river. If you 3-bet the turn, however you win 3BB if he misses but you can lose 4BB or more if he hits, because you will either get check raised or he will bet out and you will call or whatever. So don't 3-bet the turn heads up anymore if you think your opponent is on a flush draw. Just call and call the river.

[Nemesis]

Nap I have to say you hit the nail on the head. KK in particular i just keep calling and calling b/c there is NO WAY that it is gonna lose again... part of the downfall of knowing exactly how much you win or lose with any particular hand. Also the part about being overagressive with TPTK or 2nd pair good kicker is true as well. I was debating whether to even make this post as I didn't want to come off as whining about bad beats.

edit: What would you estimate my posistional VPIP should be, as it seems that i'm probably NOT taking enough advantage of posistion.

[naphand]

If you are in games where the players only raise premium hands, then you have a lot of easy decisions PF. Predictable. There are still plenty of players who raise light, or with some favourite type of hand (such as any pair, any suited broadway regardless of kicker, any A). Against players like this, you must re-raise more often to really hurt the limpets who want to play every hand, of course you need a decent hand to re-raise with, and that needs to be better the more you think players will cold-call.

Edit: I read an article by a player who was in a live game and could see the next players cards (let's not discuss the ethics). He raised every playable hand (it was full-ring I believe). Getting HU or short with one player whose cards you know is a massive advantage, even without seeing the flop. The more you can put your opponent on a tight range of hands, the more willing you should be to re-raise as you will be able to outplay them post-flop. Oddly enough, those players with a very wide/light raising standards should also be re-raised more, but this time for value. It's the players in-between that are the problem.

Example: Loose player who raises AAAP (Any Ace Any Position) re-raise your mid-pairs up, good Aces and hands like KQ, QJs). Be aware that you want position in this spot, re-raising a multi-way pot out of position with something like AJo or KQo is quite a tricky proposition, big suiteds it should be auto.

I don't like cold-calling unless there is already another cold-caller in. If the table is very likely to cold call behind you then you can indeed cold call more with big suited (never a PP or AKo/AQo), JTs would be my minimum outside the blinds (T9s and J9s are too much trouble and get you out-kicked too often) and probably only OTB with at least one caller in and loose, predictable blinds. T9s and J9s are value-steal hands.

If you want to know what I mean by the Stars comment, go watch the $100/$200 Stars game. These guys will not let up betting until they are told, except on some ultra-bad boards (and then they probably have the goods... /images/graemlins/laugh.gif). All those hands you thought the River was scary? They will bet.

[naphand]

There is no such thing as a bad run without a horribly uncountable number of bad beats, at least for regulars here.

[naphand]

Yes, indeed. And there are other hands and other situations where this kind of logic applies, and playing in such spots with correct logic (rather than out of frustration, or trying to stop the River "happening") will mean less lost, and the same or more won. If you can put your opponent on a flush draw, then 3-betting his semi-bluff is better, if he check/folds the River unimproved, they kind of think "Wow, I picked up a big draw, let's jam the pot!" even though they are losing (theoretical $$ in the process) as they only think of big pots won, not pot odds etc. Not all $1/$2 players are aggressive enough to bet their missed draws, and frequently give up esp. against a solid player.

Saving $$ when behind counts the same as winning extra when ahead especially when, as rory points out here, you win the same when ahead... /images/graemlins/smirk.gif. You don't have to be the most aggressive player on the table to win the most, thrust and parry, advance and consolidate. Perhaps I should read "The Art of War" and get some decent quotes...

[evain]

Naphand - this is my first venture into the SH section and your post is one of the best I have read in my time on this forum. Great advice, well put.

Players at all levels would do well to keep a copy on the table for tilt-time.

evain

[naphand]

[ QUOTE ]
What would you estimate my posistional VPIP should be, as it seems that i'm probably NOT taking enough advantage of posistion.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea, too game-play and opponent specific. Just learn to love the CO and Button.

[Nemesis]

BTW, thank you very much for your insight. This has turned into an incredibly valuable post for me, and i'm sure for many others. It's getting added to the must read list for noobies /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[wahooriver]

[ QUOTE ]
Saving $$ when behind counts the same as winning extra when ahead especially when, as rory points out here, you win the same when ahead... . <font color="brown">You don't have to be the most aggressive player on the table to win the most, thrust and parry, advance and consolidate.</font> Perhaps I should read "The Art of War" and get some decent quotes...

[/ QUOTE ]

I love this paragraph. We sometimes worship at the altar of aggression here in HUSH land. Aggression is good a times. Unreasoned aggression allows better players to take advantage.

One can liken this philosphy to martial arts. Sometimes you let your opponent do your work.

When I am playing someone who cannot figure out why I am calling, I take advantage. This "passive aggression" does not work against better players. Sometimes you can win more in a hand by calling than raising. I often call on the flop and raise the turn when in such a situation (rather challenge the bettor with 1 BB than .5 BB).

The key here is in understanding what your opponent likely is doing and playing your opponent, not your hand. Unabashed aggression is 1st level thinking. The best players get to 2nd and 3rd level thinking - worth at least 1 BB/100.

When I am running bad I often am not concentrating enough on my opponents. When I run good, I often have a good idea of what they have, just from their betting patterns.

I hope this helps a bit.

Let me add this quote:

[ QUOTE ]
Aikido focuses not on punching or kicking opponents, but rather on using their own energy to gain control of them or to throw them away from you.

[/ QUOTE ]

When confronted with the overaggressive opponent - this philosophy allows one to use that opponent's energy.

[imitation]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do not be tempted to always 3-bet a CR with TPTK when the board is 2-suited, they are not always on the flush draw.


[/ QUOTE ]

You should never do this, heads-up. The reason why is that the guy will bluff the river too almost all of the time, so you win 3BB if he hits and 3BB if he doesn't hit, two on the turn and one on the river. If you 3-bet the turn, however you win 3BB if he misses but you can lose 4BB or more if he hits, because you will either get check raised or he will bet out and you will call or whatever. So don't 3-bet the turn heads up anymore if you think your opponent is on a flush draw. Just call and call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a generalisation, I find players who I will 3-bet this turn against often because they will spew chips whilst I am still a favourite. Others will call a 3-bet then bluff on the river even when they miss. I would certainly mostly not 3-bet but the cituation arises I feel atleast once or twice a session where I see the opportunity to 3-bet the turn.

[MicroBob]

fully agreed with everyone who is raving about the quality of this post.
terrific stuff.



[ QUOTE ]
On a downswing of this magnitude, it is easy to do the following:

(1) Become more aggressive on the Flop &amp; Turn with hands like TP or 2nd-pair GK, trying to force out players who you know will either (i) not fold anyway, or (ii) will be drawing live or are ahead.

(2) Call down too often, simply not believing you can keep losing with your premium hands that hit the flop. They must be bluffing some of the time..

[/ QUOTE ]


I would greatly appreciate it if you would stop reading my mind when I'm playing! Thanks.