Jan 2005 in review

[stupidsucker]

I took on the start of 2005 with fire! I just come off of a bad swing recovery and was ready to open the new year with a blast.

I made a modest goal of 500 tourneys and I wanted a 40% ITM 25% roi all at the $30+3 1-table SnGs.


My results are terrible.

500 played

ITM 35.80%
RoI 13.64%
1st 71
2nd 54
3rd 54
Profit $2,250

[adanthar]

Haha, my January's worse than yours. Try a 40 buyin upswing and a 40 buyin downswing both in the same month - that's what learning to quad table gets you.

I'm still up for the month, though, and rakeback helps.

edit: Voted 4 and I don't think it's close.

[Bigwig]

Too aggressive from early on. The low ITM% & high 1st place ratio are clear indicators of this. When you're successful and hitting your hands early, you're building a big stack that you can ride to victory. But you're not being successful often enough early on. My guess would be to reevaluate your play in multi-way pots on the first two-three levels of the tournament. Perhaps you're overplaying some hands here. Maybe making some poor semi-bluffs against multiple opponents, etc.

[stupidsucker]

I had hoped to see a little more resonses on this, but it got pushed back far after the first day...



Anyways...

The truth of the matter is that my results were very staggering to me. The correct choice was the 5BB selection, and one person got it right. (as of now, ill leave it up out of curiousity)


I noticed in the past that my once ITM I was able to dominate most players ITM with me. I thought for sure that this start would land me ITM more, but it cost me about 5% ITM.

I personally feel that 500 tourneys is in no way enough to give me an accurate roi result, but ITM should be close right? Is this a fluke or does it somehow make sense?

Feb 2nd begins my new batch.. I will be posting some hands in effort to get a better grasp of what we should all be doing on the bubble and during those pesky level 4 moments.

for the record my VIP was
10/15 7.35%
15/30 8.07%
25/50 9.12%
50/100 15.88% (first huge jump)
100/200 26.30%
150/300 37.08%
200/400 42.50%
250/300 44.47%
300/600 48.26%

Despite my ratio of 1st/2nd/3rds My 416 hands played at level 8(only ITM) were 24,458 chip losers


my complete finish detail looks like this

1)71
2)54
3)54
4)67
5)85
6)68
7)50
8)25
9)17
10)9

Any thoughts are welcome I would like to fix some problems in my game.

[Irieguy]

I don't know, sucker, I think this may all be noise.

I started the month horribly after the "deathstar challenge" with a 170 SNG negative ROI batch. Then I started running better and got back to a respectable ROI by 300. I will finish my first 500 of the year this week and it looks like my ROI is going to be around 10% lower than it has been over a very big sample.

I also used to think that ITM was a more stable metric than I now fear is the case. I had a 40% ITM after my very first 150 SNGs, and it didn't vary more than 3% in any 150 SNG batch over my next 1000 or so. Then, all of a sudden I had a 170 SNG batch with a 33% ITM. Fortunately I was getting a lot of firsts, so I didn't lose very much.

Looking at your distributions, they actually look pretty good. You are nice and heavy at the top, and super light at the bottom. That's they key. Everything in the middle is just a reflection of what happens in those key hands at or near the bubble. If you get a little unlucky for a few weeks, variance is going to skew your results pretty badly.

I suspect that by mid March with over 1000 SNGs under your belt, your ITM% will be approaching 40% again and you will be able to reflect on this past month for what it really was. There are simply no indications that the games are getting any tougher. The number of players keeps going up, and SNG strategy is so simple that once you've mastered it, it's quite unlikely that you would forget how to play the right way.

I should have my first 1000 done by the end of February, so I'll let you know if I change my mind about any of this at that point.

Irieguy

[stupidsucker]

[ QUOTE ]
I should have my first 1000 done by the end of February, so I'll let you know if I change my mind about any of this at that point.


[/ QUOTE ]

Same

Good to know that others have had simalar results. I wasnt really worried, but thought maybe I could eek out a leak and get my game running hotter then ever.

My plans are to hit the 50s and 100s mid march bankroll permitting. For right now "Slow and steady wins the race". 30s it is.

Shooting for a modest 15% roi in feb.

[HoldingFolding]

A couple of quick questions:
1. Do you use PT to produce your stats? (I can't imagine going through 100s of HHs collating this)
2. Does PT only look at SnGs or will it also include MTTs (thus buggering up your stats)?

[stupidsucker]

I use PT, and I like it a lot. I could be better, but it gets better all the time.

multis dont mess anything up, you can seperate tournies in many different ways.

[lorinda]

FWIW my level 1,2,3 vp%ip are all around 10% but the pfr gradually increases.

I suspect that level 1 completing blinds cancels out slightly more raising at 25-50.
It is possible you're folding very slightly too much for 5 chips in the SB early. (Although I do fold a lot for 5 chips, don't take this the wrong way and turn into a maniac)

Lori

[lacky]

hmmm...mine are about 18-19% and I've never folded for 5 in my life except by accident. I'm begining to get the feeling I am the maniac around here.

Steve

[lorinda]

I think you're just the right side of the line.

A lot of the players I have guessed are winners (I dont have enough sample on anyone to know for sure) seem to either be 10% or 20% with not much in between. I think it's the 5 chips that does it /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Lori

[SuitedSixes]

I can't find it off the top of my head, but there was a pretty good post in the last ten days or so discussing the merits of folding for 5 in the small blind.

[FMMonty]

[ QUOTE ]
I use PT, and I like it a lot. I could be better, but it gets better all the time.

multis dont mess anything up, you can seperate tournies in many different ways.

[/ QUOTE ]

What is this, I'm new to 2+2 and have always kept a record of my results, but would love a good spreadsheet that works out all these stats for me.

Any help would be much appreicated

[skipperbob]

Quite a January; Started by watching/learning/winning at single-day 200 SnG "DeathStar"(+ 50% ROI)with Irieguy (my mentor) and ChickenPherzen...Learned to value the info dispensed, for free, by the many knowledgeable posters at 2+2 (particularly Lorinda)....Ended by cashing in first two Step 5's....Won $$$ for the month....Ended @ 324 on PP Leaderboard....Most important lesson = "how little I know"
Greatest Irony = "When I knew nothing, I thought I knew it all....Now that I know a little, I wonder in amazement at how much I have to learn"

[Mr_J]

I'm sure it was by Irieguy.

[SuitedSixes]

Search around for a post by AleoMagus that has his spreadsheet. It is awesome.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't find it off the top of my head, but there was a pretty good post in the last ten days or so discussing the merits of folding for 5 in the small blind.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's this one: should you fold the SB for 5? (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1567831&page=&view=&s b=5&o=)

Irieguy

[bball904]

Lacky,

You'll have to settle for 2nd maniac. I'm at 21, 19, 19 first 3 levels. I will fold for 5 occasionally. From another post you made the other day hinting about how the ultra tight mentality in the early rounds is a bit overboard on this forum, I think we are very much united in the minority. If you have superior post flop play, why not take advantage of it for another 30 hands at the start of the tournament? To each his own, I guess.

My January stats were ITM 37.6, ROI 24.1, in 356 55's.

[AA suited]

no, i think i'm the maniac.

i ALWAYS limp in for 5 chips.

i also tried to experiment with limping on the button w/top 67% on lvl1+2. if checked to me on the flop, i bet 3/4 pot. sometimes i buy the pot, but people with low/mid/pocket pair almost always call. i check it down the river and lose to their pair.

so i dont think it was worth it.

next i'm going to try limping in with top40% on the button.

or has this been done b4 and i'm wasting my time + chips???

Lastly, what is the the Deathstar SnG thing?

[stupidsucker]

how much you invest preflop and postflop(on what kind of flops and bets) are more important imo then what you actualy play preflop. BUT for those of us that play 4+ tables at a time dont want to be bothered with playing AJs perfectly post flop from the button after a few limpers(At least i fold it every time even though the pot odds are decent)

Preflop standards are an age old battle for SnGs. I think Ill start a new series of threads(Ill never finish, Im too lazy)that deal with "How to play" Take it level by level then post the general consensus after its all over. I have a lot of concerns over my level 4 play and also my 6th-4th place finishes. I dislike hands like this because even flopped two pair is vulnerable. Most good players never make it proper odds to draw to a flush so you really need to flop the flush to make the sooted part worth it. Or flop a double draw or Top pair w/ a draw etc to make these hands worth it.

[stupidsucker]

Just a shameless bump to point out that the correct answer in the poll has now trippled now that it has been revealed.

Im sure its just a coincidence.

Ps I hate poker