Another Bubble Question

[KenProspero]

Blinds are 100-200, with a 25 ante.

Player 1 -- 175 chips
Hero SB -- 700 chips
Player 2 BB -- 9000 chips
Player 3 -- 5125 chips

Hero is dealt 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif7 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Everyone antes, Hero posts 100, Player 2 posts 200, Player 3 calls, Player 3 raises 600, Player 1 folds.

(Note, Player 3 is a LAG, and there's a good chance of a bluff here).

Is this callable by Hero? I assume that since Player 1 will be all in on the next hand with the blinds, that it's better to just fold this and see what happens. Third is likely, winning the pot won't make 2nd THAT much more likely, and winning odds look slim (absent a miracle).

[Gravy (Gravy Smoothie)]

If the tournament structure pays out to the top 3 I fold this without hesitation.

[willie24]

normally folding when you have pot odds on the bubble is wrong.

in this case i think it's definitely right.

[schwza]

i think this is an easy as doubling up won't really help you much.

[1C5]

Fold for me too, this is one of the times I might look at folding KK even. AA might be a fold, would have to think about that one. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[willie24]

I think folding AA or KK here would be very wrong

[ChrisV]

The ICM rates your EV as percentage of prize pool as 17.84% if you fold and 23.91% if you go allin and double up.

Therefore, to break even you need a winning percentage x such that .1784 = (.2391)(x).

x = (.1784)/(.2391) = 74.61%.

Therefore according to the ICM it is (surprise!) wrong to fold AA. KK is probably a fold given the likelihood of being up against Ax.

77 is not even close.

[KenProspero]

Thanks!!

I think that answers the question.

(Very naive question -- what is the ICM?)

[ChrisV]

Independent Chip Model. It's a model that tries to estimate your share in the prize pool based on stack sizes of everyone at the table. Limitations include not factoring in blind size and assuming everyone has the same skill level.

Calculator is here (http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICM.html). It isn't necessary to understand how it works.