Bubble Hand

[Travis]

Does anyone like this play? Both of the smaller stacks seem to be trying to outlast the other to make third. Both have been taking a few stabs at pots when they can be the first one in in order to maintain their chip positions. Very few flops are beening seen. $20+2 Stars SnG.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t4180)
BB (t1667)
UTG (t1740)
Button (t5913)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t400</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t4180</font>

I guess my real question here is what range of hands do you think call this bet at the $22 level on the bubble? Can I limit it to AA, KK, QQ, AK or do you think that's too tight for a 20+2? Both the small stacks really seem to be in shell mode to make the money. I should probably also say that I've been opening quite a few pots but I haven't been coming over the top of people. Not sure if these guys can tell the difference so they may just view me as playing a loose aggresive stack on the bubble.

[LaggyLou]

I don't like it much. At this level, if the guy is in shell mode, what is he raising with that he is not calling with getting about 5-3.5? And what is he raising with that you are happy about with KQo?

IMO, your fold equity is low, you are unlikely to be dominating, you may well be dominated, and, at best, you're racing. On the next hand you'll be the button with the small stacks in the blinds. Next hand.

[Travis]

My thought was that he probably had a much wider range of hands that he'd open with (trying to take the pot down uncontested and maintain his chip position vis a vis the other smaller stack) than the range of hands he'd be willing to call allin with (and thus risk finishing out of the money). I guess what you are saying is that you don't think he'd open for much wider a range of hands that those he's willing to call allin with.

I agree that I don't get called very often by a worse hand. Just trying to get a feel for what hands you guys think call this.

[schwza]

villain has less than 9 bb's. i'd be shocked to see him lay down JJ here. he's getting almost 3:1. i think a more realistic range for him to call with are:

AA-55
AK-A7
KQ-KT

i'd rather fold and keep stealing a lot rather than risking a lot of chips here. also, it's to your advantage to keep it 3-handed so you can steal from the 3rd and 4th place guys.

[ColdestCall]

Based on your description of how the small stacks have been playing, I would fold here and just keep stealing from them to build my stack for a run at first.

[Scuba Chuck]

Let's assume UTG will push with 22+, any two broadway cards, and suited connecters 56+. This is probably too wide a range, but who knows?

Let's also assume there's only a 20% probability that UTG will fold this hand.

In this group, KQo has 46.8% equity.

Folding leaves you with 30% of the prizepool.

Pushing leaves you with 30% of the prizepool.
This number might be revised slightly upward for not considering any ties. This number could be revised slightly downward if you consider UTG would push with a better hand selection.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's assume UTG will push with 22+, any two broadway cards, and suited connecters 56+. This is probably too wide a range, but who knows?

[/ QUOTE ]

i assume you mean open min raise?
[ QUOTE ]

Let's also assume there's only a 20% probability that UTG will fold this hand.


[/ QUOTE ]
are we assuming he's equally likely to fold 56s and AA?
[ QUOTE ]

In this group, KQo has 46.8% equity.

Folding leaves you with 30% of the prizepool.

Pushing leaves you with 30% of the prizepool.
This number might be revised slightly upward for not considering any ties. This number could be revised slightly downward if you consider UTG would push with a better hand selection.

[/ QUOTE ]

um, where did these numbers come from?

[willie24]

you should push this every time (as you did). the reason why is pretty obvious and doesn't require much discussion. You will not run into AA,KK,QQ or AK nearly enough to offset the huge profit you are showing when he has anything else. (if he's really weak you might even show a profit vs. AQ)