PDA

View Full Version : Flop Draw Odds


IRV
01-31-2005, 01:31 PM
Can anyone point me to a site or describe how I can figure out what my draw odds are on the flop. For example, if I hold 78s preflop, what are my odds of flopping a str8 or str8 flush draw? There are sites that provide odds on made hands but none (That I know of) that provide draw odds.

Any help much appreciated!

binions
01-31-2005, 02:45 PM
Unsuited Max Stretch Connector (JT-54)
1.22% flop a straight w/o a 3 flush board
(1.31% flop any straight)
1.91% flop 2 pair w/o a 3 flush board
(2.02% flop any 2 pair)
1.45% flop trips or full house or 4 of a kind
8.51% flop clean 8 out straight draw (open ended or DBB with no paired/no 3-flush flop)
(9.71% flop any 8 out straight draw (open ended or DBB))
13.09% = 6.64 to 1 against

Unsuited Max Stretch 1-gap (QT-53)
0.92% flop straight on non-3 flush board
(0.96% flop any straight)
1.91% to flop 2 pair on non-3 flush board
(2.02% flop any 2 pair)
1.45% flop trips or full house
6.18% flop clean 8 out straight draw (open ended or DBB)
(7.02% to flop any 8 out straight draw)
10.46% = 8.56 to 1 against

Suited Max Stretch Connector (JT-54)
0.84% flop a flush
1.22% flop straight w/o 3-flush board
(1.30% flop any straight)
10.94% flop a four flush
7.21% to flop clean 8-out straight draw (unpaired board, no 3 flush against, no 4 flush for)
1.85% flop clean 2 pair (no 3 flush board)
(2.02% flop any 2 pair)
1.45% flop trips or full house or 4 of a kind
23.51% = 3.25 to 1 against

Suited Max Stretch 1-Gap (QT-53)
0.84% flop a flush
0.92% flop straight w/o 3 flush board
10.94% flop 4 flush
5.29% flop clean 8 out straight draw
1.85% flop clean 2 pair
1.45% flop trips or full house or 4 of a kind
21.29% = 3.70 to 1 against

Suited Max Stretch 2-gap (KT-52)
0.84% flop a flush
0.61% flop a straight w/o 3 flush board
10.94% flop a four flush
2.79% flop 8 out straight draw
1.85% flop clean 2 pair
1.45% flop trips or full house or 4 of a kind
18.48% = 4.41 to 1 against

Suited Cards w/no straight potential
0.84% flop a flush
10.94% flop a four flush
1.85% flop clean 2 pair (no 3 flush board)
1.45% flop trips or full house or 4 of a kind
15.08% = 5.63 to 1 against

IRV
01-31-2005, 06:10 PM
Thanks for all that info, but where is it that you found this info. Or perhaps you could share the math involved here.

Again, many thanks!

binions
01-31-2005, 06:50 PM
Here is the math for the unsuited 0-gap connectors. I went thru this process for all of the hands:

********************

0-gap unsuited connectors

There are (50*49*48)/(3*2*1) = 19,600 possible flops. Given an off suit max stretch connector e.g. JTo where "X" is not a J or T:

2 Pair
Flops of JTX = 3*3*44 = 396
Probability = 396/19600 = 2.02%
22 of these flops will be 3 flush
Probability of flopping 2 pair on non-3 flush flop = 374/19600 = 1.91%

3 of a kind
Flops of JJX = ((3*2)/2)*44 = 132
Flops of TTX = ((3*2)/2)*44 = 132
Probability = (132 + 132)/19600 = 1.35%

4 of a kind
Flops of JJJ = 1
Flops of TTT = 1
Probability = 2/19600 = 0.01%

boat
Flops of JJT = ((3*2)/2)*3 = 9
Flops of TTJ = ((3*2)/2)*3 = 9
Probability = 18/19600 = 0.09%

straight
JTo wil make a straight with flops of AKQ, KQ9, Q98 and 987.
There are 4*4*4 = 64 combinations each for a total of 256 straights (including 3 flush boards).
Probability = 256/19,600 = 1.31%
Probability = 240/19600 = 1.22% to flop straight without 3 flush board

8 out straight draw
JTo will make an open end straight draw with flops of KQX, Q9X or 98X, where "X" is one of the cards that does not complete the straight. KQ can make 16 combinations which can combine with 52-(2 in your hand)-(4 aces)-(4 nines)-(4 Kings)-(4 Queens) = 34 other cards for a total of 16 * 34 = 544 flops. For each suit, there will by 7 KQY flops that are three-suited. 544-28 = 516.

516*3=1548/19,600 = 7.90% open enders on an unpaired board that's not 3-flush

KKQ can make 4*3/2*4 = 24 flops and QQK can make 24. Adding the 28 3-flush flops, KQX where "X" does not complete the straight can make 592 flops. Total flops = 3*592 = 1776/19,600 = 9.06%

JTo will make an eight out double gutshot straight draw with flops of AQ8 and K97. There are 4*4*4 = 64 flops each for a total of 128 double gutshots. Of these, 8 will be 3-flush.

Probability of double gutshot without a 3 flush board = 120/19,600 = 0.61%
Probablility of any double gutshot = 128/19,600 = 0.653%

Probability of 8 out straight draw with no paired board and no 3 flush: 1668/19,600 = 8.51%
Probability of any 8 out straight draw: 1904/19,600 = 9.71%


Total probability of clean 2 pair or better + clean 8 out straight draw = 13.09%
Odds = 6.6:1

Total probability any 2 pair or better + any 8 out straight draw = 14.49%
Odds = 5.9:1

IRV
01-31-2005, 06:59 PM
Thanks alot!

Really appreciate your help!