Is this a terrible isolation play? 15-30 PP

[Mizzles]

Villian is a terrible player with a VPIP of 61% and a PFR of 34%. I don't usually try to isolate w/ KQo but I thought this would be a good time, considering I could easily have this guy beat / dominated preflop.

Problem is many of these loose preflop raisers often raise with Ace rag....


Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls.

Flop: (7.66 SB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls.

Turn: (4.83 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, Hero checks.

River: (4.83 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 6.83 BB

As always, comments would be greatly appreciated, thanks!

[fsuplayer]

looks good to me, and i would bet the turn and call down if raised.

(i have isolated with less if the blinds arent likely to tag along)

[AviD]

Hey Mizzles, I know we talked about this hand already but I figured I'd post my thoughts on here.

Given your read, I still don't like 3-betting with KQo...especially with him often raising with Ax. Although you may have a better handle on his raising standards, and if he is raising absolute trash here that you do indeed have dominated...well then OK, I guess the raise is acceptable.

Moving onto postflop play, I really don't understand your line.

You bet the flop to follow up with the aggression (although you whiffed)...you check through the turn (when you made your hand), why? Do you not feel you have the best hand at this point?

But versus an opponent that plays/raises "any two" preflop, I think you played this quite passively postflop. Does this particular opponent play weak-tight postflop? Or do you not get the value out of your hand those times he is beaten?

I'm guessing you are fearing the turn CR, wanting to see the river and/or showdown...but why get involved with KQo here if you aren't going to maximize your profits against a weak opponent postflop with a hand you are ahead of more times than not (especially if you KNOW he is going to call with MANY hands you have beat)?

To put 3-bets in preflop to "take a stab" on the flop (when you miss), check through the turn (when you make your hand), and just call when another ace hits the river (rather than raising, as it is "unlikely" he has one) just doesn't seem worth it.

If you are worried about him holding an ace (i.e. he raises far more with a rag ace than any other group of hands), then you should just let it go preflop as you are already behind as its about a 60/40 split in favor of the ace-rag and if his postflop aggression mirrors his preflop aggression, then you are going to be paying alot to see a showdown (although that didn't happen here, so perhaps he is more passive postflop).

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]
Given your read, I still don't like 3-betting with KQo...especially with him often raising with Ax. Although you may have a better handle on his raising standards, and if he is raising absolute trash here that you do indeed have dominated...well then OK, I guess the raise is acceptable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your preflop equity is HUGE here, that alone makes it a 3 bet.

You are missing value on the turn, i think you're ahead a lot of the time as A7 A8 would have probably c/r'ed you and you can't check against hands like TQ 9J etc etc.

If he calls i think no matter what card falls on the river you have a value bet because his hand range is just so wide.

I think raising the river and folding to the 3 bet is the better river line because of KJ KT K9 K8 TQ even 89s maybe.

[astroglide]

completely loose players/lags do not tend to checkraise often. the most prolific checkraisers are average/learning players. i would still bet the turn though.

[AviD]

[ QUOTE ]
Your preflop equity is HUGE here, that alone makes it a 3 bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I can partially agree with this if his opponent isn't raising Ax the majority of the time vs other possible holdings. I think someone can easily have a PFR % that high by just raising naked Aces. And we don't know how solid those numbers are (i.e. over how many hands).

The note that stands out is:

[ QUOTE ]
Problem is many of these loose preflop raisers often raise with Ace rag....


[/ QUOTE ]

which indicates there is a good (or at least better) chance this raise is with an Ace rag.

Where is the "HUGE" equity though? KQo is a decent hand, but not a great one, and not *that* dominating. I see this huge equity commentary alot, but I don't see where there is that much money to be made, especially if you are up against any ace the majority of the time.

I think the bigger issue I have is with 3-betting KQo to isolate and then not getting any equity out of it postflop.

It is also unclear how aggressive the opponent is postflop, but clearly in this hand he seems passive. If his opponent's range of hands truly is WIDE, then there are value bets to be had on all streets here. But if his range isn't that wide (i.e. he is raising Ax here far more, say 80%, than any other "weak" holding), then I am unsure if its worth getting involved.

Hands down the turn check is very bad, and I still think if the opponents range of hands is truly wide, then there is an easy river raise given the line that was taken.

The only value I can see in checking the turn is if he *knows* his opponent will fold to a turn bet, but it will induce a river bet and allow you to raise the river and get paid, all of which is nearly impossible to determine in online play (or at least very difficult).

The whole hand seems meh to me, and more so I am struggling to find the equity in KQo unless the player is utterly trashy and raising complete crap like 83o, T4s, 95s, etc. But if that were the case, then our hero should have been betting every street and not playing as passively.

Clearly our hero either feared an ace (in which case he shouldn't have been involved in the hand IMO), or feared his opponent folding to a bet (in which case, I still don't feel its worth getting involved unless your opponent is going to raise MANY hands preflop and then FOLD them quickly to flop/turn bets, i.e. raises light and is weak-tight postflop).

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I can partially agree with this if his opponent isn't raising Ax the majority of the time vs other possible holdings. I think someone can easily have a PFR % that high by just raising naked Aces.

[/ QUOTE ]

Try to visualise what hands are contained in 34% of the possible hands. Also remember that this 34% is made up from all his hands meaning his UTG raises, his raises with people in the pot etc, here is is MP2 open raising and 7 handed, i'd bet his range is even bigger than 34%. Not 3 betting here is a clear mistake.

[1800GAMBLER]

Thanks. Thoughts about the river?

[fsuplayer]

think of all the crap there is in the top 40% or so of hold em hands.

KQ is a freakin monster compared.

[steveyz]

Yeah, if you raise with any ace and any pocket pair, that is still less than 20% of all hands, so if his PFR is 34%, his raising range from MP must be even greater and probably more than half the time your hand will be a significant favorite. And the times you are behind, it's very unlikely that you are very behind.

[astroglide]

well i think the river would have went down differently if he had bet the turn. but i think 61% is still too low for a value raise where you can actually expect to get called. in general i've noticed that loose types seem to raise less with Ax and small pairs and more with whatever else (K9, QT, etc). perhaps it has something to do with them wanting a big pot with those. but this guy's stats are extreme enough that he's probably raising Ax and pairs.

[TheDelChop]

Yeah, I couldn't agree more with fsu. With a guy this loose who is this agressive there really is no other play than the 3-bet. If you smooth call, you are forced to maybe play this hand multi-way which really kills the stregth of your hand, especially if the blinds are loose enough that they call almost any raise. Against a player this bad, folding this hand preflop has to be a huge mistake because you are bound to be so far ahead most of the time, so I see no other option than the isolation play.

The other thing you have to account for is the amount of money you are going to make when you make a hand. Assuming this guy is this loose, then it should be a good assumption that he may bet into you with middle pair, allowing you to raise, and call you down the rest of the way with unimproved middle pair. Or many times will just call with the unimproved A-high. Sure sometimes you are going to be up against A-K or A-Q or some other hand your in trouble with but I can't see those losses coming any where near the gain when he calls you with his 9's with a J vs. your K's with a Q.

I myself made this play 3 times last night against a loose raiser and twice he called me down with low pair agaist my K's and made me a ton of money. The third time an ace flopped and he bet out, allowing me to easily get away from the hand. This is definetly a +EV play, if not a huge one.

[esspo]

As the others point out the pre-flop 3-bet is fine as long as you have a decent chance to get heads up.

What are his post-flop aggression numbers? If they are out of line too, then bet the turn and pay off the check-raise. He will most likely take a shot if he picked up a spade draw or he might just raise because he can't help himself. Give these types of players the chance to bluff their money off. If he is a pre-flop maniac and a post-flop wuss, I'd still bet the turn, and call a checkraise, but I'd be more inclined to not pay a river bet off unimproved against that type of maniac. In either case, bet the river again if he check calls the turn and checks the river. Maniacs will pay off a river bet with any pair. They always bluff, so that makes them think everyone else always bluffs as well.

[TStoneMBD]

your hand definitely has value preflop against a maniac. KQo is much better in a heads up pot than in a multiway pot. another thing that should be mentioned that noone here has, is that 3betting this preflop to split the dead money in the pot will compensate for the times that you are behind to a bad ace. calling is better than folding, but raising is much better than either of the latter. i think i like 1800G's line on the river raise. its a thin value-raise, but i think it will show profit in the long run. villain hasnt showed any indication that he in fact has an ace, as he didnt checkraise the flop, but may have been waiting until the turn. its a little less likely that he has an ace now that another fell on the river, and so its very possible he has a hand like K8 and is trying to valuebet.

this player raises more often than a loose fish limps. if a loose fish limped in MP would you raise with your KQ? i think you need to treat raises from this player as limps for the most part.