Was I correct to fold Quads?

[SkiGuyGT]

Table VPIP was 30, raizor was 47/12/.48, 3bettor 34/12/1.3

I limped with 22 because I thought I would be able to get a lot of action with a set. The previous pot a guy capped turn and river with AA with two people playing back and JJ on board.

Anyways what do people think of my fold?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (12.40 SB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (9.20 BB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
MP1 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

River: (12.20 BB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
MP1 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 folds, Button calls.

Final Pot: 16.20 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
UTG+2 has Qs 9d (two pair, queens and twos).
MP1 has Kh Ks (two pair, kings and twos).
Button has As Ad (two pair, aces and twos).
Outcome: Button wins 16.20 BB. </font>

[Harv72b]

Easy, easy fold preflop...the first time around. Folding when it comes back to you 3-bet is even easier.

[Brian]

Why does what your hand would have been after the Flop have any bearing on whether or not you should play the hand before the Flop?

-Brian

[lostinthought]

Easy fold, what's the point here?

[Monty Cantsin]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy, easy fold preflop...the first time around.

[/ QUOTE ]

At a loose/aggressive table 22 UTG is not an easy, easy fold. The first limp is ok, I also fold for 2 more when it comes back around.

/mc

[PokerBob]

You didn't fold quads. You folded a small pp out of position for 2 cold. Good fold. Don't be results oriented.

[btspider]

you didn't fold quads.

this looks like a call to me, yet everyone has said fold. the raisers look pretty loose, so that final pot seems like an 'average' final pot.

hindsight:
32 SB's in the final pot.. Hero has to put in 2 SB's preflop to hit his set.. 16:1.. if its capped.. maybe 36:3 or 12:1..

that looks like a huge overlay for hitting a set and losing..

there was a similar PF hand recently by sfer (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=1590920&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;sb=5&amp; o=&amp;vc=1). he had to call 2.5 SB's from the SB though.

[DMBFan23]

"Table VPIP was 30, raizor was 47/12/.48, 3bettor 34/12/1.3"]

if these reads are accurate are we really unable to call the two more in what is going to be a sweet pot? we also have MP1 sweetening the deal.

EDIT: this is assuming the first call was correct, which it may or may not have been, I don't know.

[Fat Nicky]

I had similar thoughts, but putting it in perspective, when it comes back to you 3-bet, you don't know if the other limpers will call 2 more and you don't know if the original raiser will cap. Putting this into consideration I think makes this a fold.

[btspider]

yeah, you don't know if they will or not. in this case one called and one folded, which seems about average and still provided a large overlay.

Hero is in bad relative position to see a turn for one bet when he misses.. but if he flops a set, he's in great relative position to pump the pot if someone raises behind him though.

[lu_hawk]

i'll usually call the 3-bet back to me with a pocket pair in this situation. if you think mp1 will also call then it is a pretty easy call. if you think he will fold then it is marginal but you figure to pick up a lot of bets when you hit.

to answer your question in the subject line, no it is never correct to fold quads.

[mtdoak]

This is a common situation. It really depends on MP1 and MP2. If they are TAGs and won't cold call 2 bets. However, if they will call, its about an even money call. You would be getting 6-1 on your call, and with the impied odds even higher. I would be more comfortable with a hand like 66 or 77 though. I've been out set-ed a few times with 22, in big pots.

[DeeJ]

Exactly. This is a bizarre thought process.

You didn't fold quads, you folded a pair of 2s. Every so often when you fold 32o the flop will be 333....

[bcunha]

[ QUOTE ]
Exactly. This is a bizarre thought process.

You didn't fold quads, you folded a pair of 2s. Every so often when you fold 32o the flop will be 333....

[/ QUOTE ]

[krishanleong]

This is an easy call. Controversial yes, but I'd make it every time. Also the preflop keeps coming up but you really should be able to play all PP profitably UTG at low limits is the consensus the board reached.

Krishan

[SkiGuyGT]

[ QUOTE ]
you didn't fold quads.

this looks like a call to me, yet everyone has said fold. the raisers look pretty loose, so that final pot seems like an 'average' final pot.

hindsight:
32 SB's in the final pot.. Hero has to put in 2 SB's preflop to hit his set.. 16:1.. if its capped.. maybe 36:3 or 12:1..

that looks like a huge overlay for hitting a set and losing..

there was a similar PF hand recently by sfer (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=1590920&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;sb=5&amp; o=&amp;vc=1). he had to call 2.5 SB's from the SB though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice analysis btspider. I'm not sure why so many people think my fold was obviously correct if I was getting 16:1 (or 12:1).

And when I say I folded Quads I know it was only a pair at the time people, you all take it so literally. Next time I'll say "Should I have folded 22 for 2 bets preflop aiming to hit a set?"

[EliteNinja]

[ QUOTE ]
And when I say I folded Quads I know it was only a pair at the time people, you all take it so literally. Next time I'll say "Should I have folded 22 for 2 bets preflop aiming to hit a set?"

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't see you moving up to 15/30 anytime soon from your current 5/10.

[Michael Davis]

Hi people,

I don't have an opinion on the first preflop limp. I generally don't, but whatever, if game conditions were right, blah, blah, blah.

Calling when it comes back is automatic though.

-Michael

[Chris Daddy Cool]

first of all you didn't fold quads. you folded 22. you'd only have quads if you saw it to the point postflop where you had quads.

that said, dont post results orientated hands. it affects your thinking in analyzing your hands. the hand history should have ended at the point you folded preflop.

that said, this is a terrible fold. you have more than enough in implied odds to call.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy, easy fold preflop...the first time around. Folding when it comes back to you 3-bet is even easier.

[/ QUOTE ]

WRONG.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold, what's the point here?

[/ QUOTE ]

WRONG.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Easy, easy fold preflop...the first time around.

[/ QUOTE ]

At a loose/aggressive table 22 UTG is not an easy, easy fold. The first limp is ok, I also fold for 2 more when it comes back around.

/mc

[/ QUOTE ]

WRONG.

[Michael Davis]

RIGHT

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
You folded a small pp out of position for 2 cold. Good fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

WRONG.

[Michael Davis]

You finally found a productive way to tilt.

-Michael

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
I had similar thoughts, but putting it in perspective, when it comes back to you 3-bet, you don't know if the other limpers will call 2 more and you don't know if the original raiser will cap. Putting this into consideration I think makes this a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

WRONG. you folders out there mind actually doing some of the math here or are you guys talking out your asses?

[Chris Daddy Cool]

btspider, you are smart. everyone else is dumb.

EDIT: Michael Davis is smart too.

[mantasm]

No, SkiGuy. You must never fold quads.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
RIGHT

[/ QUOTE ]

this is like the first post i've seen from you that didn't end with "- Michael" at the end.

[Michael Davis]

Dude it was like impossible to keep up with you. Notice I gave up.

-FU

[Chris Daddy Cool]

is that you in your avatar?

[Michael Davis]

No, it's Charlie Manson.

-Michael

[The Dude]

I haven't read any responsed in this thread yet, but I want to chime in.

You say the table's VPIP is over 30, so I generally like limping any pp UTG - unless the PFR is over 15 or so. But generally sets make a killing postflop, so I'm inclined to think your original limp is good. Once you limp the first time, you should be calling the second time even if you know it's going to get capped behind you. You've got 4 people still in the pot (it's pretty unusual to see both limpers behind you fold here, usually at least one will stick around).

If you look at the pot size before the flop, you folded getting what proved to be 12:2 odds - WAY more than you need to see a flop! I'd call getting 8:2. Just to give you an idea, if there were no other limpers, just me and the raisers, I would still call.

Those people who have told you to fold at any point preflop are nuts.

[The Dude]

Yeah, so I know I already said this, but I don't think CDC and Michael Davis were clear enough.

Folding this for two more bets back to you is God-awful poker. From the tone of your post, I'd say you've been kciking yourself over this fold - and you should be. Kick harder.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

Hi Dude, you really need to read my responses to this thread.

[The Dude]

[ QUOTE ]
you really need to read my responses to this thread.

[/ QUOTE ]
yeah, when I wrote "CDC and Micahel Davis weren't clear enough," what I meant was "let me hit you upside the head again." We're on the same team, man.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure why so many people think my fold was obviously correct if I was getting 16:1 (or 12:1).


[/ QUOTE ]

Where are you getting these odds from?

b

[The Dude]

BERNIE IS IN THE HOUSE! What up?

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
BERNIE IS IN THE HOUSE! What up?

[/ QUOTE ]

Just taking a break from sorting tax stuff. 5 yrs worth. Only 2 yrs to go. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

b

[Chris Daddy Cool]

did GoT quit yet?

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
even if you know it's going to get capped behind you.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is key when sandwiched in between players going nuts.

The coldcall could also help get the callers behind you to call.

To the flop and hang on tight if a 2 hits. Chips will be flying.

b

[shant]

I also make both calls.

[Michael Davis]

Where the eff have you been? GoT was gone hours ago.

-Michael

[The Dude]

Yeah, hours ago. He's a pushover.

[Entity]

I'm not folding here.

[moot]

I think you can call here.

2 bets to win 7 is not a far cry from 1 bet to win 4. The 1:4 instance refers to a time you play a small pocket pair with 4 other players in the pot (we'll assume unraised). In the case of the pocket 2s you're getting 1:3.5 (2:7 reduced).

Sometimes it will get capped and you'll be forced to put in one more bet, but the times when you do flop a set you're usually going to get paid off big by opponents who may be drawing nearly dead to you (unless they flop a higher set).

So once in a while they will make a higher set, but the added advantage about your 2s is that your oppoents will run into many instances where they pay you off until the end (if they have a higher pocket pair), but you'll easily be able to dump the hand if you miss the flop.

So yes, I call here. If I knew the hand was going to get raised this much with only 2 other players in I would have liked to stay out. But I've already invested one bet and in most cases it will only cost me two more. The added preflop aggression ensures that I'll probably get a big paycheck if I do hit.

[B Dids]

This thread is somewhat shameful. Good thing CDC saved it.

[Siingo]

You folded 22 to only 3 (2 cold) bets! What was you thinking?????

[pshabi]

Exactly.

You folded a pair of deuces to three bets, not quads.

[Harv72b]

Hero is getting 4.5:1 immediate to call 2 cold preflop. He has two players yet to act behind him, both of whom may or may not call, cap, or fold. How is it correct to call based on that?

Saying that he had 16:1 implied odds, in hindsight, is right on par with saying that he "folded quads". He has as much idea what the final pot will be at that point as he does that the other 2 twos will both come down on the board.

His reads on the two PFRs say that both are loose/aggressive preflop. MP2 is painfully passive postflop, and Button is slightly so (I'm assuming that he's including preflop numbers in his AF; Button is even more passive if not).

As for limping in the first place, Table VPIP=30 tells a small portion of the story. How many players is it averaging to the flop? How many pots are raised preflop? How is the play postflop? I can't imagine that limping 22 UTG is going to be a +EV move, except on a very LP table.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero is getting 4.5:1 immediate to call 2 cold preflop. He has two players yet to act behind him, both of whom may or may not call, cap, or fold. How is it correct to call based on that?

Saying that he had 16:1 implied odds, in hindsight, is right on par with saying that he "folded quads". He has as much idea what the final pot will be at that point as he does that the other 2 twos will both come down on the board.

His reads on the two PFRs say that both are loose/aggressive preflop. MP2 is painfully passive postflop, and Button is slightly so (I'm assuming that he's including preflop numbers in his AF; Button is even more passive if not).

As for limping in the first place, Table VPIP=30 tells a small portion of the story. How many players is it averaging to the flop? How many pots are raised preflop? How is the play postflop? I can't imagine that limping 22 UTG is going to be a +EV move, except on a very LP table.

[/ QUOTE ]

MP1 will call the vast majority of the time here. UTG+2 has already provided dead money to the pot. Hero's getting 9.5:2 immediately -- 11.5:2 if MP1 comes along -- with a possibility of it getting capped. If it gets capped, we're looking at between 12.5:3 and 15.5:3.

So, given that, we're looking at needing, on the average, to make up between 4 and 6SB postflop in a 4-way pot where two people clearly like their hands. Is this possible when we flop a set? Yes -- very easily. This is definitely a +variance call, but in the long run, it's a +EV call as well.

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
Saying that he had 16:1 implied odds, in hindsight, is right on par with saying that he "folded quads". He has as much idea what the final pot will be at that point as he does that the other 2 twos will both come down on the board.

[/ QUOTE ]

hindsight analysis isn't results oriented thinking in this application.

you know how often you'll flop a set through experience or stats. you can guess how much action you'll get on average thorugh previous experience. if that expected action is above the 4-6 SB's or so that you need to make up postflop, you should call.

effectively what you are saying, is that if this exact situation occurred on the *very next hand*, that you would still fold, even after being shown that these players put in enough bets postflop to warrant the call.

hindsight analysis deals with averages, not extremes. results oriented thinking often deals with extremes (i would have missed my flush, so i should have folded the flop getting 100:1 odds).

[PokeHer]

one thing i am confused about has nothing really to do with the play of the hand...

Whats up with UTG+2? was he all in on preflop? flop, turn, and river each say "4 players" but only show actions from 3. results show UTG+2 held Q9. whats going on there?