OESD+4 flush, multiway action

[David04]

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.02 BB (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP1 ($1.38)
MP2 ($.22)
MP3 ($4.22)
CO ($1.80)
Hero ($.96)
SB ($2.30)
BB ($3.41)
UTG ($3.71)
UTG+1 ($1.71)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.02.
BB calls $0.02, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $0.02, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls $0.02, MP3 calls $0.02, CO calls $0.02, Hero calls $0.02, SB (poster) checks.

Flop: ($0.14) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($0.14) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $0.06</font>, BB calls $0.06, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls $0.06, MP3 calls $0.06, CO calls $0.06, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.2</font>, SB calls $0.14, BB calls $0.14, MP2 calls $0.14, MP3 calls $0.14, CO calls $0.14.

River: ($1.34) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: $1.34

How did I play this? I like to get aggressive with my draws sometimes, especially when there are a lot of people in the pot. Obviously, my draw didn't hit, so that sucks. But I was wondering if I played this okay. Should I have just called the turn bet, or was I correct in building a big pot?

[soah]

You have enough outs that even on the turn if you can get all six opponents to call a raise then you're getting value from the raise. Which is very unusual in NL. Don't make a habit out of those weak raises on the turn on a draw...

Of course, there is a significant chance that your outs may not all be clean. Only two cards on the river will make you the nuts.

[David04]

Well how would you have played it?

[soah]

If you think your outs are clean and you think everyone will call a small raise, then what you did is ok. I'm not sure I'd be happy making those assumptions though, so I may just call the bet closing the action and see how the river action goes to decide how much I want to get in. You have to be wary about making the straight with the third spade, and if a ten comes you're splitting with any eight and losing to Q8 and KQ. And it's also possible that a bigger flush draw is out there. These are always dangers when you play these types of hands, which is one of the reasons that position is important with them. From an EV standpoint, I think that your turn raise doesn't make much difference in the long run. The more interesting thing about this hand would have been deciding what to do if you hit one of your non-nut outs on the river and there was action in front of you.

[tbach24]

Call. Semi-bluffing into 5 players on a loose table is not a smart idea. The idea of semi-bluffing is that you give players fold equity, with your raise, which isn't adequate, and at a loose table, you won't eliminate all the players. Also, don't play this for a flush, I guarantee at least one person is on a higher flush draw.

[soah]

He's not semi-bluffing. He's raising for value. Or at least I hope that's what he was doing.

[TheWorstPlayer]

"I like to play my draws aggressively" kinda makes me think that OP thought he was semi-bluffing, too, which is obviously a disaster in this situation. He may have backed into a decent play, though, as you have pointed out. However, it should be noted that with that many callers there is a decent chance that he is drawing near dead here.

[tbach24]

You're not raising for value into a 5-way pot where you're not ahead. There is no way that his flush is best and therefore that gives him MAX 8 outs. He must be behind.

[soah]

I don't know why you're so convinced that his flush outs are no good. Sometimes he'll run into a bigger flush, but the majority of the time he won't.

[tbach24]

With 5 players calling that bet, odds are his flush outs are no good.

[soah]

If he makes a flush then there are 8 diamonds left in the deck out of 54 unseen cards. The probability that one specific person has two diamonds is (8/54 * 7/53) = .01957, so there's a 98.04% chance that a specific person does NOT have two diamonds. Worst case scenario... the whole table will play any two suited cards... so we take .9804 to the ninth power and find that there is an ~83% chance that no one else at the table was dealt two diamonds. Please correct me if I have made an error.

[David04]

Okay since the results don't matter much here, I'll go ahead and post them.




Hero has 6d 8d (high card, jack).
SB has Jh Kh (one pair, jacks).
BB has Ts 3s (one pair, threes).
MP2 has 8h 8c (one pair, eights).
MP3 has 9h 3h (two pair, nines and threes).
CO has 6s 5d (straight, seven high).
Outcome: CO wins $1.34. </font>



So much for my flush outs being no good.

[tbach24]

There's 46 unknowns. Also, the way the hand has played out I feel that there is a legitimate chance his flush outs are not good.

[soah]

Wouldn't there be 45 unknowns? 52 cards with seven known. It seems I inverted the 45 in my post and then went and finished the calculations based off of that inverted number. But anyway, I'm still getting a 77% chance that Hero is the only one dealt two diamonds. And I don't know how you can judge anything from the action in that hand. SB bets less than half pot against loose-passive players on a board with a million draws?

[TheWorstPlayer]

I like how the CO doesn't bet the river with that many people in the pot holding the second nuts. Nice table selection.

[tbach24]

46: 4 on the board at this point, 2 in your hand. I thought we would be counting from this point. There are a lot of draws, including diamonds, I just don't think his outs will be good that much.

[tbach24]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay since the results don't matter much here, I'll go ahead and post them.




Hero has 6d 8d (high card, jack).
SB has Jh Kh (one pair, jacks).
BB has Ts 3s (one pair, threes).
MP2 has 8h 8c (one pair, eights).
MP3 has 9h 3h (two pair, nines and threes).
CO has 6s 5d (straight, seven high).
Outcome: CO wins $1.34. </font>



So much for my flush outs being no good.

[/ QUOTE ]

So much for the results not being important.

[David04]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Okay since the results don't matter much here, I'll go ahead and post them.




Hero has 6d 8d (high card, jack).
SB has Jh Kh (one pair, jacks).
BB has Ts 3s (one pair, threes).
MP2 has 8h 8c (one pair, eights).
MP3 has 9h 3h (two pair, nines and threes).
CO has 6s 5d (straight, seven high).
Outcome: CO wins $1.34. </font>



So much for my flush outs being no good.

[/ QUOTE ]

So much for the results not being important.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why do the results matter?

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
46: 4 on the board at this point, 2 in your hand. I thought we would be counting from this point. There are a lot of draws, including diamonds, I just don't think his outs will be good that much.

[/ QUOTE ]

What other people hold is only relevent the times that you actually hit.

[tbach24]

Sorry. I was trying to be witty. Results don't actually matter. You said "so much for my flush outs being no good" which was being results oriented and earlier in the statement you said "...since the results don't matter much..."

[David04]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry. I was trying to be witty. Results don't actually matter. You said "so much for my flush outs being no good" which was being results oriented and earlier in the statement you said "...since the results don't matter much..."

[/ QUOTE ]
Gotcha. I wasn't really being results oriented, I just wanted to show that you can't assume anything.