Poker will never peak

[joedot]

Contrary to what many people have claimed. Those people are usually in the midst of a losing streak that could have been caused by bad cards or simply their own deficiencies as a player. I have noticed that 99.9999% of poker players look for every excuse in the book to lay blame for their losses instead of admitting the fact that maybe they aren't as good as they think they are. And as far as online poker peaking, bull [censored]. Will never happen. With all the people on this Earth running around having babies like a bunch of rabbits, the world population continues to explode every year. And every year there are more and more "hotshots" that become legal age and start playing poker. And then there are all the other newbies that discover the game every day. Many of these people play for fun, and won't take the game seriously enough to become winners. Many are too dumb, or lack the self control to become winners. The games I play continue to be incredibly easy to beat. The bigger concern is that the a- holes in DC will do something to screw up online poker. This is something that would happen way before the games ever got too tough to beat. I've been hearing how the games are getting tougher online for 3 years now. And I'm sure we will all continue to hear it forever from the many people that are living in denial. My advice, work on your game and stop making excuses.

[liquidboss]

Agreed... Especially about the real scare being government legislation, not Party going under because the players are too good, or they allow too much multi-tabling.

Poker is great because it is ever evolving, good players just adapt. If you can stay ahead of the curve it will always be profitable, that is as long as it's not made illegal...

[Synergistic Explosions]

I agree with you. With the popularity growing with high school aged and younger, as well as the college student age group, there should be a continued rise in online poker growth as the younger group reaches legal age to gamble.

Another factor for growth will no doubt be the influx of more and more female players. This group of players will probably not level off for another 5 years as it's just beginning to take off within the female sector.

So I see no chance of online poker peaking for many many years, if ever.

[Graham]

Generally agree except to make one point:

The world population is increasing but not in the countries where most online poker players and their disposable incomes are from.

And the online games 3 years ago were tougher than they are now.

[Synergistic Explosions]

Sidenote on women players and why to expect online poker to grow in that group.

Annie Duke has given the OK for a sitcom to be developed about her life as a single mom who plays poker for a living. Since this is going to be a comedy there will no doubt be scenes of her playing poker online at her computer with the kids running around and driving her crazy.

If this show becomes popular and is picked up on a major network in a good time slot, this will do more to advertise online poker than anything before it. Especially considering its about a woman, and growth among women is a huge untapped market right now.

[liquidboss]

Good point, when I heard about the idea for that show I wanted to cry it sounded so bad but I might change my tune if it starts bringing in single mothers with no idea how to play.

[Player12345]

good point on the possibility that an annie duke sitcom could bring many women into the game.

the biggest untapped market is the chinese though. but that's scary because there will likely be much team play as they enter the game. i think they are probably a few years away from making a significant impact on the numbers, but if the chinese adopt poker as their economy grows, there will be growth forever.

[Voltron87]

[ QUOTE ]
the biggest untapped market is the chinese though. but that's scary because there will likely be much team play as they enter the game.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're saying the Chinese will cheat? Any reasons why?

[detroitplayer]

http://www.marxists.org/subject/china/cc.jpg

[Player12345]

i'm not saying it to be racist. i am saying it because there will be little or no oversight and there will be a new breed of capitalists that will try and beat the system. it is no different than the notion that the new russia is full of mobsters. chinese players from small towns and provinces will see this as an opportunity and the local mood will be one of complicity not discouragement.

as developing countries develop, or communist countries turn socialist or democratic, there is a natural step back to a wild west mentality. this mentality will result in this new group of players trying to do things the scam way versus the traditional and proper way of learning the game through education as the way to beat it.

[Uglyowl]

Great... now I have to feel bad about stealing food off of a single mom's babies plate.

[liquidboss]

[ QUOTE ]
the biggest untapped market is the chinese though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have always thought it strange that there aren't more Asian players online. They are all over the casinos playing live poker and generally play a lot of video games, it seems like there would be more. I agree it is an untapped market and we'll see more and more in the future.

[Synergistic Explosions]

Is hold-em popular in China? I always thought they preferred games like Pai Gow.

What about other Asian contries, like Viet Nam? Seems like when I watch TV tournaments there's always a couple players who were born in Viet Nam. Plus why do half these Vietnamese players have the same name, Nguyen? I look through tournament results and I see that name everywhere. I even saw a Barron Von Nguyen once.

[Player12345]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the biggest untapped market is the chinese though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have always thought it strange that there aren't more Asian players online. They are all over the casinos playing live poker and generally play a lot of video games, it seems like there would be more. I agree it is an untapped market and we'll see more and more in the future.

[/ QUOTE ]

this concept, in essence, is why the cigarette makers agreed to the settlements. the markets that are developing in this new global economy are presenting customer bases that will more than make up for lost revenue.

as an example, for every american that stops smoking, there are 5 teenagers in developing countries that are being directly marketed to and will start smoking.

this is why the party poker ipo/float will probably get top dollar. there will be very little discounting due to risk because of the untapped markets.

[Player12345]

vietnamese players are probably the biggest money winners on the tourney circut by nationality. with the chinese, there has been very little gambling allowed and is actually a capital crime in many places. however, the government has stopped caring about the core issues of communism in the past 5 years and they are not going to raise a stink when the newly affluent use their new internet connections to play poker. asians have a reputation for being gamblers, but the chinese are just beginning to join the ranks of these gambling asians. when the chinese population can easily get unrestricted internet connections and some sort of funding method for them is set in place by the poker sites, the growth will be huge. but if you see a 100-200 table at pokerstars in 1 year from now that has 9 players from bejing, i would not join as the 10th.

[AncientPC]

[ QUOTE ]
Is hold-em popular in China? I always thought they preferred games like Pai Gow.

What about other Asian contries, like Viet Nam? Seems like when I watch TV tournaments there's always a couple players who were born in Viet Nam. Plus why do half these Vietnamese players have the same name, Nguyen? I look through tournament results and I see that name everywhere. I even saw a Barron Von Nguyen once.

[/ QUOTE ]

Chinese usually play Bridge or Big 2. Nguyen is a common last name, like Chen / Lee for Chinese or Thompson for American names.

[lefty rosen]

For China to send a significant amount of new players to the game their incomes will have to grow ten times to what it is now. Also knowledge of English or at least some European language will be necesarry. The thought that a city worker who earns 1000 US a year can afford any form of western poker is a joke....... /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[David04]

[ QUOTE ]
but if you see a 100-200 table at pokerstars in 1 year from now that has 9 players from bejing, i would not join as the 10th.

[/ QUOTE ]
Doesn't a full ring game at PS seat 9 people?

[lefty rosen]

The games were tougher at lower stakes, but the games are also getting more rockish all the time. Just look at Pacific Poker their low limit games were as birdy as Party .5/1. Now they are more weak tight than all out lunatic loose.....

[Voltron87]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm not saying it to be racist. i am saying it because there will be little or no oversight and there will be a new breed of capitalists that will try and beat the system. it is no different than the notion that the new russia is full of mobsters. chinese players from small towns and provinces will see this as an opportunity and the local mood will be one of complicity not discouragement.

as developing countries develop, or communist countries turn socialist or democratic, there is a natural step back to a wild west mentality. this mentality will result in this new group of players trying to do things the scam way versus the traditional and proper way of learning the game through education as the way to beat it.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're statements about Chinese players being predisposed to cheating isn't racist?

[pubz r 4 nubz!]

http://www.antichrist.nu/kelsey/06-20-04/pwned01.jpg

[carlo]

Full ring Limit at Stars is 10--NL is 9--I believe the 9 figure may have come from Doyle Brunsons first book where he states that the ideal NL game will contain 9 players. Also, hasn't the WSOP final event always attempted to have 9 man tables and the final table is 9. With the large numbers in the last 2 years this may have changed but the final table is still 9.

regards,
carlo

[Player12345]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i'm not saying it to be racist. i am saying it because there will be little or no oversight and there will be a new breed of capitalists that will try and beat the system. it is no different than the notion that the new russia is full of mobsters. chinese players from small towns and provinces will see this as an opportunity and the local mood will be one of complicity not discouragement.

as developing countries develop, or communist countries turn socialist or democratic, there is a natural step back to a wild west mentality. this mentality will result in this new group of players trying to do things the scam way versus the traditional and proper way of learning the game through education as the way to beat it.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're statements about Chinese players being predisposed to cheating isn't racist?

[/ QUOTE ]

no racism, but definitely stereotyping. i am making a blanket comment about how people tend to react when development like this takes place. my comment comparing the chinese newly affluent to the russian newly affluent is not a racist comment. if it is ignorant of me to stereotype than so be it. but race is irrelevant to my opinion. historical changes like china is seeing is nothing new to modern history, and this history indicates that they will be more likely to try and team play if they think they can make quicker money that way as opposed to mastering the game.

[Michael Davis]

An increase in world population has nothing to do with online poker.

-Michael

[BradleyT]

Vegas isn't getting any smaller.

[Uglyowl]

Alot of older Americans are afraid of the internets. The population that is comfortable is growing so that is another factor to consider.

[47outs]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm not saying it to be racist. i am saying it because there will be little or no oversight and there will be a new breed of capitalists that will try and beat the system. it is no different than the notion that the new russia is full of mobsters. chinese players from small towns and provinces will see this as an opportunity and the local mood will be one of complicity not discouragement.

as developing countries develop, or communist countries turn socialist or democratic, there is a natural step back to a wild west mentality. this mentality will result in this new group of players trying to do things the scam way versus the traditional and proper way of learning the game through education as the way to beat it.

[/ QUOTE ]


They still need to educate themselves to beat the game or their "cheating" wont work. I don't care if I have cheaters at my table if they suck.

But seriously, why the Chinese specifically. There is no legislation in our Democratic society that would prevent us from cheating. There is no "oversight" in North America.

You imply also that we have no "scam" here either. But we do.

Preventing cheaters from cheating is collusion detection software built into sites. This is prevelant for everyone who uses the site and is not ethnically biased. So this brings us back to the point, why the Chinese?


outs

[Cubswin]

with the chinese, there has been very little gambling allowed and is actually a capital crime in many places. however, the government has stopped caring about the core issues of communism in the past 5 years and they are not going to raise a stink when the newly affluent use their new internet connections to play poker.

Really?


China detains 597 in online gambling case

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Thursday, January 20, 2005

SHANGHAI, China -- Authorities have arrested 597 people in connection with an underground Internet gambling network thought to involve funds totaling more than $60 million, state media reported Friday.

The reports come amid a nationwide crackdown on unauthorized gambling.

The Ministry of Security said the gambling network, spanning 22 provinces and major cities, was allegedly run by a Taiwan-based company in collaboration with criminal syndicates on the Chinese mainland, the official Xinhua News Agency reported.

Altogether, 395 people suspected of organizing the network and 202 suspected gamblers have been detained, the state-run newspaper China Daily reported.

In Shanghai, police detained 87 people suspected of involvement in the gambling ring, it said. In nearby Jiangsu province, 106 people were detained and $20 million in gambling money and suspected gambling proceeds were seized, the reports said.

China launched a campaign against gambling last week, targeting overseas gambling, online gambling and illegal lotteries.

State-authorized lotteries, widespread throughout China, apparently are not affected by the ban. Nor are private gambling activities in people's homes, the China Daily said.

The popular custom of betting while playing cards or the traditional game of mahjong with friends and relatives is regarded as a form of entertainment and thus also not subject to the crackdown, the newspaper cited Tong Jianming, a police official, as saying.

Tong said the government planned to issue documents soon explaining which activities were allowed and which were illegal.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but if you see a 100-200 table at pokerstars in 1 year from now that has 9 players from bejing, i would not join as the 10th.

[/ QUOTE ]
Doesn't a full ring game at PS seat 9 people?

[/ QUOTE ]

those shifty chinese are gonna add a 10th.

[Shaun]

Harsh but fair. I tend to agree. Poker isn't going anywhere.

[PokerNoob]

Poker isn't going anywhere, but poker as a "pop culture craze" will certainly end, as eventually all pop culture crazes end. This one probably even faster as it costs money to not be good at it.

[mcozzy1]

[ QUOTE ]
Those people are usually in the midst of a losing streak that could have been caused by bad cards or simply their own deficiencies as a player. I have noticed that 99.9999% of poker players look for every excuse in the book to lay blame for their losses instead of admitting the fact that maybe they aren't as good as they think they are.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unfortunately, it's intelligent, good players who are saying this. The last post on this topic was started by a guy who was up $7,000 for the month playing $3/6. It's not the results that are making people say this. It's the fact that there are a lot more tight-aggressive players at the low limit games. Plus, there are noticably more multitablers than there were a year ago.

No one is saying that they games won't always be beatable, but you have to be living in a fatasy world to think they are going to stay good forever.

[AngryCola]

[ QUOTE ]
but you have to be living in a fatasy world to think they are going to stay good forever.

[/ QUOTE ]

Define good.

So long as the games are beatable, I'm happy.

Things may tighten up a *bit* more, but I think you are overestimating the general population's abilities.

[Player12345]

[ QUOTE ]
So this brings us back to the point, why the Chinese?


outs

[/ QUOTE ]

only because of the sheer numbers of the untapped market. there are more chinese moving toward the middle class every day, and they will not be able to just order HPFAP in chinese so it is likely they will try other ways to beat the game. again, it has nothing to do with the morals of the culture just the sheer numbers. that's why "the chinese"

i have a question for you. why do most casinos put heavier restrictions on danes and israelis?

[Player12345]

selective enforcement in communist countries is quite common. it is also common for them to punish like this but also turn a blind eye because the government can't feed and house the people as effectively as they can feed and house themselves with money won from other countries and their citizens.

i'm not saying it is a kangaroo court because the chinese enforce the punishments very strictly. but they will prosecute this group for the sake of looking good globally, yet quietly allow the masses to continue. the chinese government can't possibly support a developing province as well as party poker can.
/images/graemlins/ooo.gif

[Shaun]

[ QUOTE ]

No one is saying that they games won't always be beatable, but you have to be living in a fatasy world to think they are going to stay good forever.

[/ QUOTE ]

There have been "good" poker games since the game was invented. There will always be "good" games.

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm not saying it to be racist. i am saying it because there will be little or no oversight

[/ QUOTE ]
As opposed to the massive oversight the US government has in place to stop its citizens from colluding at online poker?

[David Zed]

You are too late, poker is booming regardless of players level.