It's hands like this that kill me

[Guy Incognito]

Villian just sat down, so no read. Do I fold the turn with no read? If so, what kind of read would cause me to call/raise?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (7.25 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.25 BB

[BottlesOf]

No. New to the table, with no read, just call down. It's not hands like this that are killing you, if in fact, you are getting killed.

[Harv72b]

Absent a read on the player, I think you have to pay off here.

[James282]

it's not hands like this that kill you, because you played it fine.
-James

[SamIAm]

The nice thing about internet poker is that you can curse as loud as you want while paying him off.

Push the call button and take your losses.
-Sam

[adamstewart]

I usually end up paying off and calling down in these situations. However, after thinking more about this hand, I'd like to offer some thoughts:


It's probably good to fold to the turn check-raise for the following reasons:

(1) A check-raise on the turn usually indicates pretty good strength, and rarely is a bluff. Furthermore, you raised preflop, so he's got to think the chances of you having at least a high pair or pair of Kings is probable -&gt; By check-raising, he's telling you he beats those hands.

(2) After your preflop raise, he called you flop bet on a DRAWLESS board. Therefore, he's likely to have at least paired something on the board (i.e. the Ten).

(3) As discussed, you're likely behind. This small pot is only laying you 6:1 money to call. You have 5 outs to improve, but you have to significantly down-grade them due to the chance you're drawing dead to trip Ten's right now. I'd give you 2-2.5 effective outs, which is nearly enought to call 6:1 money.

(4) Let's say you think ther's a chance you're ahead. If you plan on calling the turn raise, the Villain is going to bet out again on the river so you're forced to call another big bet for the showdown. This means you've got to be willing to pay 2 more big bets in order to win 7 big bets (only 3.5:1 money). So, you'll have to be ahead 22% of the time in order to break even. I don't think you will be.


In summary:

Small pot + check-raised on the turn after showing strength + someone who's stuck around on a drawless flop = fold.


Adam

[kidcolin]

Drawless? QJ and 98 can be ruled out that easily?

[deadmunny]

NEO (Non expert opinion)No read I am calling it,

Regards D

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
Drawless? QJ and 98 can be ruled out that easily?

[/ QUOTE ]

When compared to the magnitude of other possibilities...... yes.

"If it looks like a horse, and sounds like a horse, it's probably ........ a horse .... not a zebra."


Adam

[Klak]

i think the pot is just barely big enough to call down. folding would not lose you much in the long run tho.

[captZEEbo1]

I reraise allin. That usually gets good hands to fold.

[gmanko]

Heads up I would probably call - a lot of bluffraisers out there.

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
Heads up I would probably call - a lot of bluffraisers out there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not as many as the number of value-check-raisers, though.

Adam

[Jack of Arcades]

Which would be relevant if Hero was getting even money.

[Sarge85]

I think you pay off here.

If I had KJ or any King, in the BB's position, I'd CR when the board pairs.

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif