BB dilemma at HOME tourney-- "Help me if you can I'm feelin down." -

[slydeni]

This is $50 home tourn. that pays top 3 places.
Players start with 1500.
10 men enter and it is down to 6 players.
HERO is in BB with about 1600 in chips - close to 3rd or 4th place in chips.

Blinds are 100-200 and going up to 150-300 in 10 minutes.

1 LP caller who is a calling station and I felt confident I could read him.

SB calls. HERO has J8 hearts and CHECKs.-- 600 in POT

FLOP is J 10 2 with 2 diamonds.
SB checks.
HERO bets 500.
LP calling station calls - and has me covered by a few hundred in chips.
SB Folds.

Here I put him on a draw.
TURN is 4 of hearts.

I said to him--" I think yer on a draw...I cant give you a free card." I felt My read was probably 60% diamond draw/str8 draw, and 20% better Jack; and 20 pr. of 10's or worse pair. I went all in here...

Was I correct??? PLease help... This one is buggin me-

thankx
sly

[willperkins]

I like your bet on the flop. If he is on a flush/str8 draw, and you bet t500 (I would have bet about t400 but so what)he is incorrect to call with a draw.

In fact since he did call you, I would think that it is much more than a 20% chance he has a bigger J than yours.

After he called that bet, I would say there is more like an 80% chance he limped with KJ or QJ and is calling you down because he is a calling station.

As I said, I like your original bet, but once he calls you, I would have to check and see what he does.

If you really thought he was on a flush draw, you made the right move, because he is only getting 2.45 to 1 pot odds to call your bet and he would be incorrect to call.

However, IMHO, I think he has KJ or QJ and you are behind.

[slydeni]

yah... you have a point.

I did feel strong he was on draw.

ACTUAL RESULT:

He had 89 of diamonds-- for flush and str8 draw /images/graemlins/frown.gif

I am still fav going into river ...but he hits queen and I get sent to the forums to see if i played it wrong...

thanx for the reply.

sly

[willperkins]

Well, since he had the 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, your read was correct and you bet correctly on the flop and turn. He made two terrible calls and got lucky. Thats poker!

[bigredlemon]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, since he had the 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, your read was correct and you bet correctly on the flop and turn. He made two terrible calls and got lucky. Thats poker!

[/ QUOTE ]With a flush + straight draw, he's a favourite to win it. You played it wrong. Even two overcards and a flush draw is a favoutite against you. There are not many hands that are worth a call that you are ahead of.

On the other hand, you couldn't have known of all the draws he has against you so you have to bet the flop. With a blank turn, you become the favourite again so of course you have to keep betting. You played fine knowing what you could likely know, although if you saw he had 8d 9d, you'd check it on the flop and bet the turn.

[lorinda]

but he hits queen and I get sent to the forums to see if i played it wrong...

If it makes you feel better he played it terribly.

Lori

[slydeni]

hehe... it makes me feel much better.

thx for the replies...

sly