Folding a 13 BB pot on the river when a scare card comes

[aflaba]

I call to much on the river. Today I started working on correcting this mistake. what do you think about this river fold?

CO looks like a very solid player by his stats
MP is loose/passive

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP calls, CO calls.

Turn: (9.75 BB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP calls, CO calls.

River: (12.75 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero folds, MP folds.

Final Pot: 13.75 BB

[tongni]

This is one horribly weak fold.

[manpower]

Lord mercy no. Do you really think you're going to be beaten here more than 14 times out of 15?

[eL CardinaL]

Villian shows J9o and laughs at everyone..

[aflaba]

Yeah, it didn't feel alright.

But is the solid player stupid enough to think I'm gonna lay down my monster I have been aggressivly betting and raising all the way, just because another lousy T hits the board. Does he take me for a weak moron or what??? :-)

It's never correct for him to bet. I'll always call here...

[aflaba]

That would have been devestating... Don't even joke about it dude, I'm gonna get nightmares

[eL CardinaL]

Apparently you don't always call..
If he knew you thought he knew you thought he thought you'd always call a bet with a monster here and lay down a mediocre hand a bet would always be right,..

[PassiveCaller]

ouch. call

[MAxx]

you gotta call this.

[Grisgra]

This is going to earn me a month's worth of ridicule, but . . . I think that in the 5/10 games, at least, you don't win this 13 out of 14 times. It's very, very close.

I still call, because if he shows me J9o it will ruin the entire session. But this isn't a 25BB pot, it's 13BB. Big, but not HUGE. And your logic is correct . . . super unlikely that anyone is folding this for one bet here -- so unless you've been laying down like mad this session . . . he's probably honest. I'd say 95% of the time, not 85% or 90%.

Well, at least if this happened at 5/10. 10/20, you mf's are goofy . . .

By the way -- if you want to start making more river laydowns, this probably isn't where to start /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

[Alobar]

Thats a horrible fold. call, youll win enough for it to be profitable.

I would have called the flop c/r so I could raise the turn

[aflaba]

Nice to see I'm not alone in thinking it is not a huge mistake at least. Means I'm probably not crazy :-P I don't know whether it was a mistake or not. But like you I think a fold was EV+ or close.

It's nice to see no one else is folding here though. Because I don't like folding here myself. Anyway one can't be making these fold on regular basis, because then people who take notes would be starting to take shots.

[ QUOTE ]
By the way -- if you want to start making more river laydowns, this probably isn't where to start .

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I think you're right. I'll start slowly and get the feel of it before I start with these kinds of tough laydowns.

[aflaba]

[ QUOTE ]
Apparently you don't always call..
If he knew you thought he knew you thought he thought you'd always call a bet with a monster here and lay down a mediocre hand a bet would always be right,..

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, funny post. Who knows :-). We're not playing $100-200 though so I hope he didn't think that way

[Schneids]

Call the river!! CO could play 99 or JJ or QQ this way (PF depending on his tightness and aggressiveness...) and decide "well that ten is a scary card, I'm going to call a bet on the river so hmmmm I'll just bet it myself and maybe he'll fold something better and he probably won't raise me if he has me beat so yeah betting beats checking and calling."

[aflaba]

Yeah, I just came to think about the same myself. Although with JJ and QQ I think he would have capped preflop. So I think 99 is the only possible one of the one you suggested. Also 99 I think he would/should just bet instead of check-raise on the flop? I put the guy on a T all the way from the flop. I feel the only other plausible holdings for him are J9( and 99). Although I didn't think about this much in the middle of the hand.

Anyway still, _I'm not sure_ what he had. And I guess that is the key thing, I didn't have enough information to make thát fold.

Let's even say I expect him to do bluff here only one in 15 times. Then I my decition of calling or folding is break-even no matter what I chose.

But I'm not sure he's bluffing 1/15 times. My estimations may be flawed. Let's say all I can say is that he is bluffing somewhere between 1/10 and 1/20 times.

1/10: calling EV = +0.5
1/20: calling EV = -0.25

So in reality I would have to expect him to bluff even less than 1/15 times for a call to be less than break-even. How much less depends on the uncertanty/flaws of my estimations. Since uncertanty one way weights more than uncertanty the other way.

I think i should have called. That feels pretty good. I like to call.