2nd Guessing my move..

[ddss6_99]

Ok so it was a PP tourny 2000 entrants were down to about 315, 220 cash.

NL Hold'em Trny:9097108 Level:9 Blinds (200/400) - Saturday, January 29, 16:53:46 EDT 2005
Table Multi-Table(226723) Table #14 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 5: norrisbruce ( $4570 )
Seat 9: bravegibson ( $6066 )
Seat 2: snicho2 ( $11709 )
Seat 1: VTR14 ( $4265 )
Seat 8: nadmai1 ( $5090 )
Seat 4: EVG83 ( $7474 )
Seat 7: mbaker1986 ( $16310 )
Seat 6: the_queen ( $9590 )
Seat 3: cybo1 ( $5674 )
Seat 10: pacman65 ( $2905 )
Trny:9097108 Level:9
Blinds (200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to norrisbruce [ Kh Ac ]
nadmai1 folds.
bravegibson folds.
pacman65 folds.
VTR14 folds.
snicho2 folds.
cybo1 calls [400].
EVG83 folds.
norrisbruce is all-In [4570]
<font color="blue"> I'm on the button with AK. There's one limper to me. I figure that I could fold my way into the money if I wanted to, but the real money doesnt start until the final table or so. With AK I was contemplating my options. I could limp in and try to see a cheap flop, but I'd rather not let the blinds in if it could be avoided. I could raise to around 1400 or so, but any decent raise is going to committ a big portion of my stack. I figured that if I push it all in two things could happen, everyone folds and I pick up 1000 chips. Or I get a call and have to sweat it out. I don't feel that he has a big PP so I'm figuring worst case scenerio it's a "coinflip". If I won, I'd be at around 11k chips and would be around 2x the avg stack. Would you have risked your tournament here or have waited for a better spot? </font>
the_queen folds.
mbaker1986 folds.
cybo1 calls [4170].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6s, 9d, Ts ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Qs ]
** Dealing River ** [ 4d ]

[sfwusc]

You are down to 10BB. I dont see much choice. QQ to AK is a coin flip. So only a nice pot pair is better here. If you burn through 5 BB to get AA or KK...then a double up puts you right back at 10bb.

If you wanted to get into the money then you should have waited. I have folded AK on the bubble before. That said I have gone out with AK in coin flips.

SWUSC

[ddss6_99]

Yea, that's what I mean. I COULD have just waited to get into the money, but in a 5+1 tourny, just in the money nets me $1 profit so I decided to go for it all. There was no doubt that I needed to move it, but I'm not sure if there would have been a better time to do it.

[sfwusc]

What did he have?

If he didnt have AA or KK then I think this was a good time to try.

If he had AA or KK then you should have waited.

SWUSC

[ddss6_99]

He has 99 and flopped a set. I needed a J on the river for a straight but didn't get it. I guess I feel it was the right move since I wasn't playing for 220th place $.

[sfwusc]

You invested 4570 in a 9740 pot.

45% equity in the pot---.45*9740=4392


The blinds didnt cover the equity difference. Actually the move was EV-

I think the reason for that is you had more than 10BB.

SWUSC

[Jim T]

[ QUOTE ]
You invested 4570 in a 9740 pot.

45% equity in the pot---.45*9740=4392


The blinds didnt cover the equity difference. Actually the move was EV-

I think the reason for that is you had more than 10BB.

SWUSC

[/ QUOTE ]

???

If they could see each others hands, then yes, his push was marginally -EV because the limper would always call. But instead they were playing poker.

I don't think there was anything wrong with the move. A big percentage of the time he takes the pot right there. Plus, depending on his opponent (and his previous play), he might get calls from hands he dominates like AQ, or KQ.

[sfwusc]

I said i would do the same. I was just point out the EV factor.

SWUSC