Extremely rare event

[eldyna]

In Omaha, it is a good thing to be double suited, and it is also possible that the first four board cards are similarly double suited, leading to the possibility of drawing to two separate flushes simultaneously. I calculate the probability of this occuring at roughly .0058% (is that correct?) /images/graemlins/confused.gif

This happened to me in a play money game on Paradise. It happened not once, but twice in the same orbit! Oh, and I made both flushes.

I shoulda bought a lottery ticket that day. /images/graemlins/frown.gif


Tim

[gaming_mouse]

Chance of being dealt a double suited hand:

((4 choose 2)(13 choose 2)^2)/(52 choose 4)=0.134837935

Given that you have been dealt a double-suited hand, chance that the turn card makes a double-suited board in your suit:

(9 choose 2)^2/(48 choose 4)= 0.00666049954

Total chance that this situation occurs:

0.00666049954*0.134837935= 0.000898088004

About 1 in 1113.

And after all that you are only 14/44 -- still a dog -- to make your flush.

gm

[eldyna]

OK, I got the calculation wrong, and it's not as rare as I thought. /images/graemlins/blush.gif


Tim