ATs button steal

[bicyclekick]

5 handed 30/60

This is my second button at the table, I played 3 hands the first orbit and lost them all.

2 folds and I raise A/images/graemlins/spade.gifT/images/graemlins/spade.gif from the button.

Sb's note from previous playing is "posted dead 10 handed mp1 raised q8s mp over aggro but not retarded postflop"

bb is a decent player if I can remember right. I could be COMPLETELY wrong though as i dont have a note on him.

They both call.

FLop
Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif8/images/graemlins/club.gif2/images/graemlins/spade.gif

Check check, I bet, sb c/r, bb calls 2 cold. I peel one. (mistake?)

Turn A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Sb bets, bb raises. I call 2. sb calls.

River 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif
checked to me and I bet.

Comments?

[gonores]

I'm nopt thrilled with 11:1 and possible reverse-domination issues against two non-retards on a non-drawy board. The rest of the hand looks ok to me.

[bicyclekick]

Yeah I think a flop peel for non-meta game reasons is pretty damn bad. That was a big reason why I called.

[Stork]

I think the chances that his ten out could still be good plus the backdoor straight draw plus the backdoor flush draw make it fine to take one off here.
I'm thinkin maybe 2 outs for the ace, 1 for the ten, 1.5 for the backdoor flush, and 1 for the backdoor straight gives you 5.5 outs, easily enough getting 11-1.

[drbk2]

I really think the flop call is terrible unless you're up against loose aggressive morons. And it doesn't seem like the blinds really fit this description.


Turn: This is precisely why I think a flop call is so bad. Now what do you do?

River: Wow checked to you? Now I'm really confused. I think the BB has you crushed. What do you do if you get check raised on the river? If I was the BB in this hand and I had 88, I would try for a check raise on the river.

[NLSoldier]

[ QUOTE ]
River: Wow checked to you? Now I'm really confused. I think the BB has you crushed. What do you do if you get check raised on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

You fold easily imo.

[stoxtrader]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the chances that his ten out could still be good plus the backdoor straight draw plus the backdoor flush draw make it fine to take one off here.
I'm thinkin maybe 2 outs for the ace, 1 for the ten, 1.5 for the backdoor flush, and 1 for the backdoor straight gives you 5.5 outs, easily enough getting 11-1.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think its a bad call. I think you overestimate the straight and flush outs, as you would need to adjust odds downwards as they require seeing two cards. I think thats the correct way to think about those. but 2 outs for the ace and 1 for the ten seem reasonable.

[Stork]

I thought 1.5 for the flush and 1 for the straight already were adjusted for the 2 cards to come? I'm just going by what Miller wrote in SSH.

[stoxtrader]

i need to understand this better also.

you will make a backdoor straight or flush say 1/~23, but it costs 1.5BB to see the river card. does this mean u are getting worse then 11:1 when calcing the outs the way you/we did?

[Stork]

Actually, I think you're right. This looks like a situation where your effective odds are worse than your pot odds.
Going off topic a bit, if this is true, then why is it correct to jam a flush draw on the flop with 3 opponents when the odds of hitting on the next card are only 4:1? I mean, I do it anyway, but only because I think WWED (What Would Ed Do?)

[GuyOnTilt]

Going off topic a bit, if this is true, then why is it correct to jam a flush draw on the flop with 3 opponents when the odds of hitting on the next card are only 4:1?

Jamming multiway for value is an issue of equity. Weighting and calcing your outs to compare to immediate or weighted pot odds should not be calced the same way. For b/d flush draws, there are gonna be 9 cards that improve your hand to the draw. Obviously those shouldn't be counted as full outs, since they alone don't improve you to the winning hand. So how much of an out is each of those 9 worth? However often they do improve you to the winning hand, which in this case is 8 out of 46.

9 * 8 / 46 = ~1.57

Even though the river card came into the calc here, this number is strictly for the next card to come and should be used in relation to your immediate or weighted pot odds on the flop. In this hand since you're closing the action, they're the same thing obviously.

In BK's hand, he's going to be calling the turn if a gutshot card comes for him as well, so he has b/d straight outs too. There are 8 of those, and 4 out of 46 complete.

8 * 4 / 46 = ~0.70

However, we've already accounted for some of these outs in our b/d flush draw, since this number includes times where both b/d straight cards are spades. That will account for 1/16 of these outs (1 in 4 the turn card is a spade times 1 in 4 the river card is a spade).

.70 * 15 / 16 = ~0.66

So his b/d draws together are worth ~2.23 outs in this hand.

If the situation was such that he would not have called any turned gutshot card, but only the ones that gave him the b/d flush draw, then his b/d straight outs would be much less. There would then only be 2 turn cards that gave him the draw and 3 cards that completed it that weren't already accounted for in our b/d flush outs.

2 * 3 / 46 = ~0.13

This does not account for times where there's the possibility of not having to call any turn bets when the turned gutshot card was offsuit, so weight accordingly with the other calc if there's that possibility.

GoT

[fsuplayer]

with the backdoor draws, i think peeling one off is correct for more than just meta-game purposes. thats what i would do anyways.

[Stork]

Thanks GoT. You clear stuff up good.

And this next comment is not directed to you but to everyone: I hope you all see that he has a double backdoor straight, and a jack will give him a double-belly-buster (sounds like a wrestling term, doesn't it?)

[GuyOnTilt]

a jack will give him a double-belly-buster (sounds like a wrestling term, doesn't it?)

My bad, I didn't even really look.

His b/d straight is worth

4 * 4 / 46 * 15 / 16 = ~0.31

plus

4 * 8 / 46 * 15 / 16 = ~0.61

so ~0.92.

GoT

[gonores]

Are there not alarms going off in anyone else's head when BB calls 2 cold on this board?

[Stork]

That's a good point. I think it depends on whether BB really is the decent player Kick remembers. If he is, than it is a bit alarming, if he's your average poker player, than no I'm not too worried.

[roy_miami]

[ QUOTE ]
Are there not alarms going off in anyone else's head when BB calls 2 cold on this board?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes and they get louder when he raises the turn.

Looks to me like your beat on the turn. Tough to fold in a short game with no read though.

[bugstud]

The BB, as has been said, is the key to the picture. If he'd call 2 with JT on the flop then raise his double gutter on the turn, you can't fold. If he's the type to raise a good Q on the turn here despite the A hitting, you still have a call. You opened on the button, got c/r'ed and didn't threebet, which to them signals junk. So by my crude analysis the turn's a call.

Calling the one more on the flop is more than fine, if the SB c/r's draws in addition to Q's and 8's and even 2's then it's a no brainer.

[GuyOnTilt]

BTW, I realized about 20 minutes after posting this that the double-gutter makes this a lot more complicated than what I did. His one card straight adds in possiblities of chops and there's two ways to backdoor into it. It would require weighting which I don't feel like doing right now.

GoT

[Paluka]

I would have called on the flop, and also wondered if it was correct to do so.
Against 2 opponents I think that if your hand is not even good enough to call a flop checkraise you might just be better off checking the flop. It is very very rare for both of your opponents to just fold here, and a checkraise is more common than a call.

[Michael Davis]

I like checking here a lot more than most but it often puts you to a difficult test on the turn, as you can be even less certain that you are beat than if you just do what you're supposed to do and bet the flop.

I agree that it's rare for both your opponents to fold here, but I think this flop is on the bottom end of those you should bet, mostly because of the deuce.

-Michael

[Nate tha' Great]

Bike,

I haven't read the other replies yet, but I'd imagine they're saying that after the solid-seeming BB cold calls here, there's too much chance that you're drawing only to runner-runner outs to justify a call.

[HiatusOver]

"Against 2 opponents I think that if your hand is not even good enough to call a flop checkraise you might just be better off checking the flop. It is very very rare for both of your opponents to just fold here, and a checkraise is more common than a call."

That is the weirdest thing I think I have ever seen you post Paluka. You want to check Q-8-2 rainbow when checked to 3-way with 6 bets in the pot and A high?