Turn Play

[jayheaps]

20/40 at bellagio. Folded to me in the CO.

I have A /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gifQ /images/graemlins/heart.gifJ /images/graemlins/spade.gif

I raise. Solid player on the button Calls

Flop K /images/graemlins/heart.gifJ /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/club.gif

I bet, Button Calls.

Turn: 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

What do you do?

[Nick709]

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20/40 at bellagio. Folded to me in the CO.


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This is somewhat hard to believe. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

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I have A Q Q J

I raise. Solid player on the button Calls

Flop K J 8

I bet, Button Calls.

Turn: 9

What do you do?

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Check and call a bet, you are up against at least two pair, which in my opinion isnt laying down, and more likely a made strait, it would be terrible to get raised here but you definitely have odds to call and hit your straight or your flush.

[Moneyline]

With solid players behind you I would just fold this hand pre-flop. You are a dog to a lot of junk hands, and even money against others. I did a few brief twodimes sims and you are a dog to hands like:
Td 7c 4d 3s
Kd 8d 5h 2h
8c 7s 6s 3h

Oddly enough, you are a favorite against a lot of A2xx hands according to the sims. With that in mind, I think I would only raise this sort of hand if the players behind me were either 1) too tight or 2) very poor players.

As far as your question goes, I would probably bet the turn.

[jayheaps]

i agree with you. The reason I raised (after being shocked that it was folded to me) was that the Butttn and SB were pretty tight and I thought I could get heads up in position after a very bad BB.

I wasn't sure what to make of the call. My best guess was a low wrap of some sort. Knowing this guy, he would have 3 bet any big pairs. I Big wrap is a possibility, but less likely given my holding and he may have three bet a big wrap.

[johnnybeef]

what did your opponent do?

[Buzz]

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What do you do?

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Jayheaps - Although you didn't identify the game, I'm assuming you're playing O-8 rather than Omaha-high-only. (Makes a difference in terms of what Button would consider a good one-on-one hand before the flop).

The other snag in your post is there seem to be two jacks of spades in the deck. May we make the jack in your hand the jack of diamonds instead? (I'll proceed on that basis).

What to do depends on Button's thinking. You're asking your question for the third betting round, but since Button's thinking begins before the flop, we need to look at the first two betting rounds.

1st betting round: When Button calls the pre-flop raise, I'd suspect Button has a decent one-on-one hand and may be picking off what he/she perceives to be a possible attempt to pre-empt him/her and steal the blinds.

Indeed, considering your cards, that could have been your motive. If so, and if you thought you very well might succeed in stealing the blinds, then I like your pre-flop raise. But what matters more (than whether or not I like your pre-flop raise with this relatively mediocre to poor, IMHO, one-on-one hand) is what Button might be thinking.

2nd betting round: What does Button think when you bet? Perhaps that you either have flopped a set of kings or are blowing smoke out your ears? (That's what I'd think.... well... maybe not exactly a set of kings... any flopped set looks good enough to bet in two handed play, as does flopped two pair).

At any rate, from Button's perspective, you could have some sort of fit with this flop, or you could be presuming Button has no fit with the flop and making a hold 'em type let's-play-chicken flop bet.

Should Button consider you a conservative player? If so, blowing smoke out your ears is less of a possibility here, but still can't be ruled out (from Button's perspective).

Button should know that by calling, it's very hard for you to tell what cards he/she holds. From Button's perspective, you may think he/she has flopped a pair of kings or better. Also from Button's perspective, you may think he/she is simply following through on picking off a possible steal attempt.

I imagine you are aware that you have missed this flop - but you bet anyway, hoping Button has also missed the flop, and in an attempt, I presume, to convince Button that you have not missed this flop. But even though Button probably immediately reads your flop bet as a strong possibility of a pure-bluff or semi-bluff, your flop bet still might work sometimes, if Button has nothing.

But it also might not work, even when Button has nothing. (And it's certainly not going to work if Button has something). Even with nothing, if Button reads you for a bluff or semi-bluff, Button might call, hoping you'll check and then fold to a bluff on the next betting round.

3rd betting round: What might Button think if you check? Button might think your first round raise was a steal attempt, your second round bet was a bluff or semi-bluff, and now you are ripe to be exploited by a bluff from Button. Button might be aware that you might be aware that Button might try a bluff here.

But it doesn't matter because if you check Button is almost surely going to bet here. There is no hand Button could have that would merit slow play here. Button would be making a big mistake by giving you a free card here - big enough to be bizarre for a solid player.

And when Button bets, you won't really have any idea what Button holds. Could be something or could be nothing.

You'll be getting pot odds of 4.75 to 1 to call, with implied pot odds of 5.75 to 1 to call. (That's assuming I've correctly stacked the chips).

Meanwhile, what about your hand odds? Although you would have liked a queen on the flop, I don't think you much want to see a queen on the river. I'd figure any of seven non-pairing hearts for the whole pot, feel enigmatic about eleven other cards, the two pairing hearts, the three non-heart tens, the two missing queens, the jack of clubs, and the three missing aces, and not much like any of the other 26 cards. I don't know how to figure all that in terms of outs. If you count the eleven enigmatic cards as half for and half against, it's 26+5.5 to 7+5.5 or about five to two against you.

All in all, although the odds seem muddled here, at least to me, I do have the feeling there's about twice as much as you probably need in the pot to have favorable odds to call a bet to see the river card.

Thus if you check, Button will bet, and you should, IMHO, call.

That's the almost inevitable sequence for checking on the 3rd betting round. (1) You check. (2) Button bets. (3) You call.
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Now, what about betting yourself on the third betting round? (The immediate and obvious danger is a raise).

What might Button think if you bet? Button still might suspect your first round raise might have been a steal attempt, your second round bet might have been a bluff or semi-bluff, and now you are continuing with your bluff or semi-bluff.

But if Button was planning on exploiting your bluff or semi-bluff when you backed away on the third betting round, the opportunity to do that is lost (at least on the third betting round). I think if you bet here, Button wonders what you do have - but folds with nothing. With anything other than the nut straight, I think Button probably calls rather than raising.

Button needs Q-T-X-X to have the nut straight, but Q-T-X-X is only one of a number of possible hands Button could have. Thus from the standpoint of all the possible hands Button could be playing, the probability of a hand with a queen and a ten is simply low.

Without the nut straight, Button may raise, but probably won't because, although Button can't really tell what you have, your bet here would represent the nut straight - and you could actually have a straight.

You'll probably get raised if Button has Q-T-X-X, but otherwise, I think not. On balance, I think there is only a slight danger of getting raised if you bet.
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And now, finally, to answer your question: At this point in the hand, I think it's going to cost you one bet to see the river, whether you make the bet or Button does. There's a slight danger that Button will raise if you bet, but off-setting that is the possibility of Button mis-reading your holding if the river works out well for you, plus the slight possibility of Button folding to your bet.

On balance, I think you do better by betting the turn yourself.

Nothing you have tried thus far seems to be working out very well for you on this hand, but since the turn was favorable for you, the third betting round does not seem the time for you to give up.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

P.S. Most of the time you're going to miss the flop with that hand and end up playing a pair of queens on the second betting round, just as you did here. When you miss the flop with that hand, you'll be a rowboat.

When you do catch a fit with the flop, with that hand you'll be a battleship. (But all you probably need to be for a one-on-one win is a river patrol boat).

In other words, with that starting hand, I'd want as many customers as possible - and I'd generally want to see the flop as cheaply as possible.

[jayheaps]

Great post Buzz.

Actually, I held the jack of clubs, not jack of spades. My plan preflop with this hand was to isolate the BB (a calling station) with position and bet out on almost any flop. Obviously when the button (a pretty tight player called) this strategy went out the window.

I actually like this starting hand a bit more than you do heads-up. While it is not a monster, it is probably alot beter than many hands which will call me (especially if they suspect a steal. The one flop I didn't want to see was one with a King (which was exactly what I got).

Also, I am not as conviced as you are that I don't have the best hand right now or at least on the flop. I have to believe, he would have raised a king if he had one and definitely raised a set or any big draw. I think there is a decent chance, he has a medium pair and is calling down assuming that flop would have missed a hand with 3 or 4 low cards.

I didnt like the 9 because that would have filled a lot of gutshot draws he may have called with. However, if he had one pair, I probably don't want to give another free card.