More on draws

[Laughingboy]

I've seen a couple of conversations about playing draws lately, but none seem to fully address my question: In a NL SNG, assuming you have the odds to call with a draw, when should you take off a card? In a side game, the answer is "always," (assuming no pair on board, yadda yadda) but what adjustments do you make in a tourney?

For example, last night on Stars with 150 blinds I had AhKh. The flop comes down two little hearts and a Qs. The pot is 1800 chips (I raised to 450 on the button and got 3 callers). I have 1500 chips left. The SB, who also has 1500 left, bets 300, folded to me. Now clearly he's giving me the odds to draw at my flush, but what else should I be thinking about? Note that I don't care so much what the answer in this particular case is. Rather, I want to know how to account for other considerations like increased chip value as your stack shrinks, etc.

In this case, Let's assume I put him on a pair of queens. How much would his bet have to be for it to be correct for me to fold, and why?

Thanks in advance!
Sean

[Big Limpin']

I would give consideration also to the inherent value of semi-bluffing. If you push overtop of his t300 on the flop, you either take the pot uncontested, OR you are called and take the draw. And its a good draw too, with 2 overs.

IN this sence, i would say that i am willing to play some draws that give me BELOW pot-odds.

I know its not really what you were asking, but it needs to be said.

[adanthar]

Depends on how many outs you have (does he have KQ or QJ) but either way you've got at least 12, so just under a 50/50 chance of winning, the pot is 2100 counting his bet and he's saying he's weak. You basically have to go all in to maximize folding equity, but even if he calls every time, you're risking 1500 to win 3500. To make an accurate fold here you'd have to know he has a set, and then it would still be close.

Note that him going all in instead of betting 300 changes absolutely nothing. It doesn't even matter if you have T9s because if he goes all in you still have the odds with only 9 outs. So in a really big pot, or with a big draw, always going all in no matter what isn't ever really wrong except for weird bubble situations.

If your draw is smaller, or especially if the pot is smaller, though, things change. Assuming the pot is 600, you have T9s and he bets 300 and flashes a Q, you should just call - he's not folding to an all in and if you add up both your stacks you barely have the 2:1 you need. If it was a bubble situation and there was a really short stack around, occasionally you'd have to fold depending on the other stack sizes.

Basically, the answer tends to change based on the pot size and the number of players/chips. When there's 6-8 players left or more, though, you may as well just pretend it's a ring game.

[snowmen]

I like the idea of betting in the button with that hand because : you can make them fold and if they call you , you have got the desired pot-odds. Thanks (is this correct big limpin' ? thanks too)

[Big Limpin']

Yup. Spot on.

[Laughingboy]

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You basically have to go all in to maximize folding equity, but even if he calls every time, you're risking 1500 to win 3500.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is this better than calling and risking 300 to win 2100, and more with implied odds if he's drawing at a lower flush (which is quite possible)?

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To make an accurate fold here you'd have to know he has a set, and then it would still be close.


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I'll buy that in this particular case.

[ QUOTE ]

If your draw is smaller, or especially if the pot is smaller, though, things change. Assuming the pot is 600, you have T9s and he bets 300 and flashes a Q, you should just call - he's not folding to an all in and if you add up both your stacks you barely have the 2:1 you need.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are sure he won't fold to a push if a third heart falls? How about a fourth? I doubt you can rely on taking his whole stack when you hit, here. Not unless the queen of hearts falls.

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When there's 6-8 players left or more, though, you may as well just pretend it's a ring game.

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That makes sense, but what if you're on the bubble, and you are the short stacked one? I understand the semibluff push just fine. Is there a case where you might just call for a sizable portion of your chips, if you're getting, say, 4.5/1? Your folding equity is zilch, and you're getting the right odds to look at one more card.

Sean

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
How is this better than calling and risking 300 to win 2100, and more with implied odds if he's drawing at a lower flush (which is quite possible)?

[/ QUOTE ]When you just call, it says two things:

1)"I can't beat a queen"
2)"I'm probably drawing or have AK so make the bet bigger next time"

If the guy is any good postflop, four times out of five you'll be facing an all in on the next street getting only 2:1 odds. By calling, most of the time you'll be folding the turn, and when the heart does hit, he's going to check to you every single time and probably fold to a large bet. If anything, you should be getting his chips in now while you're effectively ahead (because you are, counting your folding equity, the chance he only has QJ or a draw, etc.)

Not going all in here is a huge mistake. (Yes, even if you know he's on the flush draw. If he's that loose, when you raise him all in he has the odds to call anyway (or would most of the time.))

[ QUOTE ]
Are sure he won't fold to a push if a third heart falls? How about a fourth? I doubt you can rely on taking his whole stack when you hit, here. Not unless the queen of hearts falls.

[/ QUOTE ]You're getting 3:1 and need a little over 4:1 total just to see the turn, so you must make up 300. You'll easily get that much on average.

[ QUOTE ]
That makes sense, but what if you're on the bubble, and you are the short stacked one? I understand the semibluff push just fine. Is there a case where you might just call for a sizable portion of your chips, if you're getting, say, 4.5/1? Your folding equity is zilch, and you're getting the right odds to look at one more card.

[/ QUOTE ]Sure, but bubble situations are a different and weirder story. Most of the time, this comes up when a tiny stack is around that will let you fold in. It's not something that happens very regularly.