Someone explain fold and pot equity to me.

[AncientPC]

Yes, I have a gazillion posts and still don't know what those terms mean exactly. Preferably an explaination in regards to NL.

I r stoopid.

[jojobinks]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I have a gazillion posts and still don't know what those terms mean exactly. Preferably an explaination in regards to NL.

I r stoopid.

[/ QUOTE ]

fold equity: the value to you, to be factored into your ev (in a rough way), of the possibility that your opponent will fold. if the stacks are deep at the blinds are small, for instance, a miniraise preflop has very small equity. on the other hand, a raise of 50XBB is unwise b/c a raise of 3-5xbb will probably have the same fold equity.

does that make sense?

pot equity: if i have AA, and you have KK, my understanding is that i have 82% pot equity. in other words, at that moment, 82% of that pot is rightfully mine. in a multiway pot, it works the same way. exactly how PE comes into play, i'm not as clear about.

anyone?

[Shilly]

A good example of pot equity is this:

You're in the BB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif3 /images/graemlins/club.gif, five limpers, you check.

Flop: K /images/graemlins/club.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

You check, the first limper bets, the other four call. It's back to you. You should make your nut flush about 35% of the time (assume this will be the best hand). You have 35% pot equity. Therefore, you should raise, assuming that you "deserve" 35% of each bet that is put in the pot. With five extra bets, you gain a "pot equity edge."

[AncientPC]

Thanks, yeah I understand pot equity now. Fold equity is still a bit hazy for me though. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[Shilly]

Alright, I'll try fold equity, too:

You have T10k in the small blind, with the blinds at 300/600 in the late stages of a tournament (already in the money). After posting, the big blind has T400 left. It's folded around to you. If you push, you don't have much fold equity--it's unlikely that he would fold for his last 400 with 1600 in the pot (4:1 pot odds). Since it's very unlikely that he will fold, you have no fold equity.

[AncientPC]

So having little to no fold equity is basically another waying of saying they're pot committed?

[Shilly]

Pretty much.

[AncientPC]

I can't believe how simple the explanation for fold equity was. I wanna delete this thread. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[Shilly]

Don't worry, it's late at night and nobody will ever know...

I can keep a secret /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[AncientPC]

LOL, the beginners' forum doesn't move fast enough to push this thread down the page. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Joe B.]

how do you firgure out the percent?

[amoeba]

hahaha, I caught you asking stupid question, hahaha.

j/k.

actually fold equity is a bit more than saying he is pot committed. He can be very deep stacked and have a lot left over but because of his calling station tendencies, not give you a lot of fold equity.

Lets say you have TJ, flop comes KQ3 rainbow. newb in early position has Q4. both of you have ton of money left. he bets, you semibluff raise. You might not have fold equity just for the sheer fact that he is newb and thinks his second pair is good. Therefore it destroys part of the value of the semibluff, the fold equity.

Semibluff is good for winning 2 ways, 1 by getting more money in when you hit and 1 by getting them to fold because they can't exactly put you on the draw. when you have no fold equity, you lose 1 way to win.

[AncientPC]

Bastard! I was hoping you wouldn't find this thread. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

It's ok, I caught your "what's a straddle" thread a whileback. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Kellon]

Sometimes the only folks who have the courage to ask "dumb questions" are the "old timers." Keep it up, you two. I've learned a lot the past few days that I might not have felt comfortable asking, or wouldn't even have known to ask.

Thanks -- to you both, and to those who have answered the "dumb" questions thoughtfully and respectfully. This is what makes 2+2 the great resource that it is.

[theRealMacoy]

i fully agree
thanks for ansking and the explanations were excellent

cheers boys
the Real Macoy

[Pepsquad]

Sorry Ancient, back to the top it goes.

From my understanding it seems like some people are missing the boat when it comes to fold equity (but maybe I'm the one that is wrong). I thought it has to do purely with your stack size.

Example: If the pot had $70,000 in it and you had one dollar left to bet, you have ZERO fold equity. That is, betting your final dollar has no chance at getting someone to lay their hand down.

[Absolution]

And then you get chewed out for raising with nothing.

Then you smile. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Absolution]

It's actually 3 ways. You also sometimes get a free card on the turn.

If you lose fold equity though, the semi-bluff generally isn't profitable and not a tool to be used in small stakes loose games.

[Absolution]

Nice responses in this thread. I always wonder about using pot equity in NL. Say 4 of you see the flop and you have a nut flush draw. If 3 of them call bets to you you could probably reraise due to equity, but in NL you always have the danger of large reraises. Is it generally better to take the free card in a multiway NL pot if the game isn't passive?

[amoeba]

I think its better to take the free card if you believe villain will pay you off when the flush hits.

[amoeba]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry Ancient, back to the top it goes.

From my understanding it seems like some people are missing the boat when it comes to fold equity (but maybe I'm the one that is wrong). I thought it has to do purely with your stack size.

Example: If the pot had $70,000 in it and you had one dollar left to bet, you have ZERO fold equity. That is, betting your final dollar has no chance at getting someone to lay their hand down.

[/ QUOTE ]

stack size is certainly contributes heavily in to folding equity but it is not the sole contributor. Other factors come in to play like opponent's tendencies, his hole cards, etc...

read the example in my post on opponent's tendencies and how that effects your folding equity. many times in low stakes NL, you do not have a lot of folding equity purely because opponents like to call and catch a bluff.

I'll go over how his hole cards effect things now.

lets say you hold AKs. early position 4xbb preflop raise, you call from the bb.

flop comes Q 8 3 with 2 of your suit making you a 4 flush. You bet out pot, villain raises to 3x your flop bet.

You both have plenty of stack left. at this point, if you pushed, if villain holds QQ, he will call you regardless of stack size. and at most stack sizes he will call you with 88 too.

Thus if you really put him on a set, pushing is the wrong move because 1, you don't have fold equity, 2 not all your outs are clean due to some of them filling him up so you might not have odds to draw to your flush 3, your overcard outs definitely no good.

[CCraft_42]

echo that learning lots as well

[AngryCola]

Joe B asked a good question.

I haven't seen any answers for him yet.
Honestly, I'd like to hear the responses to his question. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[amoeba]

very read based. you would have to have some prior info on the player in order to find out folding equity.

I find the topic of finding out an exact percent for folding equity very difficult as well.

The other problem is at one table, a reraise all in might be seen as the stronger move but another table a minreraise might be seen as the stronger move.

I think if you are able to accurately calculate fold equity for every table you sit at, you can be one of the few truly great poker players.