Easy fold right?

[11t]

Lately on the low limit turbo tables I've had good results pushing preflop with AA/KK, and sometimes QQ, early in the tournament since you seem to get called by weak players. I decided to try another route though. Anyways, for some reason I didnt bet more on the flop.

This is an easy fold though right?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP2 (t1410)
MP3 (t1300)
CO (t2000)
Button (t1470)
SB (t1400)
BB (t1500)
UTG (t1420)
Hero (t1500)
MP1 (t1500)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t100</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls t100, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls t90, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t320) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t200</font>, MP3 calls t200, SB folds.

Turn: (t720) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t400</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to t1000</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t2120

[willie24]

oh boy, this situation sucks, and you are going to lose most of the time, but i think folding is terrible.

if you call, its 600 to win 3320. thus you only need to win 19% of the time to make calling right. if you lose are still in the game. it's not over when you have 200 and 20 bb.

i hate to say it but you have to bite the bullet and call here. you will win more than 19% of the time.

[adanthar]

edit^ 800 to win 3500, because the rest of his stack is going in on the next street. Not that that changes much.

If he only has 2 pair, and you know he does, you (edit: almost) have odds to call, so you pretty much have to call here.

The fold makes more sense with deeper stacks but mostly because of the turn 9.

[Big Limpin']

I cant fold this. As willie said, the pot lays you huge odds.

First off, i think your p/f bet was fine. 5BB. thats what i would bet also. Try to think of what hands you could be facing, that beat you....

QJ: yeah, its the nuts, and could be there. BUt i dont call 5BB with QJ. Sure, some do, but i bet more players fold than call. I pay him off if he has QJ.

2 pair: This is the big one i think. I mean that in that i REALLY doubt villian could have 2 pairs. Nobody calls 5BB preflop with hands that make 2 pair on a KT9x board. The turn 9 did NOT help him. Im 95% sure of that.

Set: Sh*t happens. Pay him off. YOu are too far into the pot.

Frankly, i think you are even money or better to win this hand. Seriously. If he has QJ, so be it. Thats the only hand im scared of.

My hunch is he has one pair and a 4 flush.
The key is to put him on a range of hands that agree with his preflop action.

Thats my reasoning...long story short, you have to call this.


Hope this helps, BL

[Big Limpin']

[ QUOTE ]
If he only has 2 pair, and you know he does

[/ QUOTE ]

I wrote my post at the same time as you adanthar, so i read yours after i responded. You say you believe him to have 2 pairs....could you please elaborate on your thinking here?

I give my reasons for NOT putting him on 2 pairs, but am willing to listen (and learn) from your reasoning. Do you feel he flopped KT 2 pair? Or paired kicker turn 9? I just cant put him on KT, K9, or T9 seeing as he called 5 BB preflop.

Thanks, hope to read your reponse soon

[adanthar]

I just mean if he flashed you KT you still almost have odds.

At a $5 or $10 or wherever this probably is people can and do call 5 BB with that, especially if it's suited.

[schwza]

that's a call. too many people go nuts with less than AA to fold. and as others have said, you have outs against two pair.

[11t]

I suppose you are right that I can beat a far larger range of possible hands that I could lose too and I do have the odds to call it. I convinced myself he had TT and he didnt want some fact card to hit to give me a miracle straight.

[microbet]

He could have trip 3's or 10's or QJ, but almost as easily he could have Ad9d, AdTd, maybe AdQd or AdJd or maybe AK and he thinks you are on the draw.

If I had to pick one hand, I'd say QJ and he was protecting against the two flush draws, but I'd call with what's in the pot and all.

Sounds like you wish you had bet more pre-flop. What do you think about betting more on the flop?