who makes this play? (50+5 hand)

[assron]

I made a play yesterday in a $55 that I think I'd make most of the time, but I'm wondering if it's a completely boneheaded move

Dealt 55 on the button at ~t1300
two callers in EP
minraiser (big stack, t2200) in MP
Blinds 15/30
I call for t60
SB and BB call

basically your standard early community pot...

Flop comes 234 rainbow.
t360 in the pot, obviously.
SB and BB check.
UTG limper bets 175
UTG+2 folds
MP big stack calls for 175

action is on me in the button. I like this flop a lot, as in the vast majority of situations, I am not a significant dog here. I know BB and UTG dont play hands like 56s, and most of the randoms usually dont either. 22, 33, 44 are possibilities, but I'm willing to deal with them. Even if anyone has these, I have outs and am 32% to win. If anyone has 77-KK, I'm a little bit worse than 40% to draw out, as I have 10 outs (A, 5, 6). 66 and AA are problems - 25%. I dont want to call off my stack drawing out, as this could get very ugly on the turn and river with 3 players in and 2 to act. I much prefer to raise here and take this sucker down quick. There is a very, very good chance that I have the best made hand already, as I would put at least one of the two bettors on A2/A3/A4 or even a bricked sorta high Ax. I'm at a 83-85% advantage to A2-A4 and A7-AK, a 93% favorite to A6, and in a world of hurt to A5. A4 may even call a huge raise, depending on the holder's degree of idiotude. Middle to high pocket pairs may fold to a push, as a strong raise here represents A5s/22/33/44/55/45s/56s, all very likely button hands, especially considering that a big part of my game is small suited connectors, small pairs, and even the occasional suited gapper in late position early, all of which I'm more likely to play than AJ/KQ/KJ/AT type hands that most play -- this is certainly known to UTG and BB, as we all 4-table 55s.

Readers Digest version:
66/AA/56/A5 - ouch
A2-A4, A6-AK - domination
22-44 - bad, but bearable
77-KK - decent shape
anything else - domination

Some players fold this. Some players call this. Some raise lightly.

I push.

What's your take on my play? What would you do here, and why?

I'll post the results at some point if you want, but I think they're rather meaningless. Plus, it's more fun for you guys to guess what happen
ed.

[etgryphon]

Interesting hand...

I think I'm raising it to about 450 to see if I can buy a free card on the turn if one of my ten outs doesn't hit. I think I would fold to a reraise but I still have ~900 chips.

-Gryph

[JKratzer]

I like the push. How often do you flop an overpair with 55?

JKratzer

[ryedin]

That push is slightly gutsy, but certainly has its merit. It looks like you were early in the trny though and I can't see myself putting it on the line like that with 10 outs that early on. Minraising and smooth calling smells a little like high PP for MP. Seems he's confident enough in his hand to not worry about driving people out... although maybe he should be with that flop. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if UTG called with a set. A little later on in the trny is when I think I'd make this push as a semi-bluff steal attempt, but I don't think so in that spot that early on. Someone correct me where I'm wrong...

[adanthar]

If I am UTG in this hand, you are in fact exactly 32% to win it after I autocall. But I didn't play yesterday so it's not me /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

I don't like this at all. You have the implied odds to call and it's very possible you're getting a free card on the turn; take it. If you go all in now you're basically telling his TT 'call, please'.

[willie24]

this is an easy, automatic push. i wouldn't think twice.

[A_PLUS]

I like the play. I would be a littled worried about the A5, especially from the original limper. A5s is a common limping hand from EP. I would think that MP has a mid ace or middle pair, which represent some trouble.

As I was writing this another thought came to mind, which I have problems with, and may be relevent here.

The only hands that are going to call your all-in are most likely going to have you beat. You will only get called by a set, A5, or a pair higher than 55. You will likely have some outs in any case, but is it worth it?

700TC pot. Are you risking too much? personally I dont think so, I really like the play. Just a thought though, as often after I get busted out of a SNG, I am asking myself why I put myself at risk in a similar situation.

so what happened?

[willie24]

the chances of you being called by a hand that kills you are almost zero. when you are called you have something like a 37% chance (on average) of winning the 2800 pot. that's equal to 1036, or about what you have to bet to push. in other words, you would be very close to getting proper odds to call if someone had shown you TT and pushed in front of you. But, you will also get both players to fold and win the 700 pot right here probably half the time or more. calling is worse because you fail to protect your hand when you are ahead, and at the same time give yourself zero chance to bluff out a better hand.

easy push.

[joeboe2001]

I certainly don't push here.

Here is how I see it.

You are walking on a trail when you come to a fork in the road.

One way is virtually risk free, and, with some luck, you will get where you are going.

If you go the other way, you have to jump over a ravine. You know that once in every 4 tries you will clear the ravine, and, with luck, get where you want to go a bit faster than if you went the safe way.

The other 3 times you will fall to your death.

Which do you chose?

[willie24]

remember that if you take the safe way you will eventually starve to death at least 2/3 times. also, you are probably only 1/3 at worst to die of falling into the ravine.

[Gravy (Gravy Smoothie)]

I would be hesitant to count the other two 5's as outs.

[willie24]

it depends entirely on what hand your up against. If you the two 5's aren't outs, you are likely ahead and don't need outs- (you are up against any ace [except AA and A5]). if you're up against 66 you may fold him with a push, and you still have 6 outs if he calls.