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View Full Version : The variance of 6 max.


bunky9590
01-28-2005, 10:16 AM
Just a rando thought that , no bad beats or anything, but just wanted to lay this out there in case some people are not playing but reading.

Started the month off on a 300BB run in the 5-10 (6 max) hit a flat spot for about 3 days. Then lost 200BB in 3 nights. Didn't play poker for 5 days due to work constraints, and then have won 100BB in 2 sessions.

ALl of this over 15k hands.

Glad I have gotten numb to variance. Thanks to Jay! for that one, this game is wicked good but swingy as hell.

300BB in no where near enough to be comfortable in this game. 500 may be on the low side. I'm liking the fact that I have over 1k BB for this game.

Just a rando thought, anyone wanna expand upon this? Add some thoughts?

Evan
01-28-2005, 10:24 AM
I have had 2 160+ bb downswings at 10/20 6 max in my first 12k hands. Its been fun.

Scotch78
01-28-2005, 10:30 AM
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Glad I have gotten numb to variance.

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Find some wood fast.

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300BB in no where near enough to be comfortable in this game. 500 may be on the low side. I'm liking the fact that I have over 1k BB for this game.


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I think most of the experienced 6maxers recommend 500 BB already, and I know that my psychological bankroll is more like your 1k BB. I've had enough -75 BB sessions to take them in stride now, but I'm still waiting for that first 200+ downswing. Part of me wants to stay at 1/2 until I've survived one, even though I've got the bankroll for 3/6.

Scott

bunky9590
01-28-2005, 10:36 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I have had 2 160+ bb downswings at 10/20 6 max in my first 12k hands. Its been fun.

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In a way I have to thank that 2 month bad run I went on in NL for my variance adjustment. Ive had 2 -75BB sessions in that 200BB downer, slept perfectly those nights. I'm finally about where I want to be mindset wise for poker, it was just really really hard getting there.

Pain threshold roolz!

lehighguy
01-28-2005, 10:56 AM
I've been single tabling 5/10 6max for a two weeks.
High point: Up 200BB
Low Point: Up 80BB (right now)
But I've noticed most of my loses are bad beats, second pair hitting trips and such. I do think I have a leak in that I call down turn raises every time with top pair. I just can't imagine what they have on that A, 4, 6 rainbow board(its always A4 or 46 or something).

MAxx
01-28-2005, 11:10 AM
my broll is similar to yours- B. i am trying to get it up a little to shoot at the 10/20 game. whenever i sit down and play 500 to 1000 hands at 5/10.... i fully expect to win or lose 100BBs.

obviousy most of the time it is somewhere inbetween that range abvove. however, a few times a months... i will lose 100bbs in a session. i don't feel like it would be impossible for me to have several of these bad sessions in a row, and therefore i wouldnt like to just have a 2 or 3 hundred BB bankroll.

i think 500 is enough, we gotta be willing to take some risk...

bunky9590
01-28-2005, 11:54 AM
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i think 500 is enough, we gotta be willing to take some risk...

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While I agree with that, I'm very risk adverse right now.

I'm way overrolled for this game and I like it that way. Very stress free way to make good money, even with the variance.

For the month right now I'm still up over 2000 with bonuses and such

bunky9590
01-28-2005, 12:47 PM
[ QUOTE ]
But I've noticed most of my loses are bad beats, second pair hitting trips and such. I do think I have a leak in that I call down turn raises every time with top pair. I just can't imagine what they have on that A, 4, 6 rainbow board(its always A4 or 46 or something).

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, when my bad runs have come the two and three outer machine is in high gear. Party switches into fish payoff mode every once in a while to keep the feeding frenzy from getting out of hand.

kiddo
01-28-2005, 12:51 PM
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I'm way overrolled for this game and I like it that way. Very stress free way to make good money, even with the variance.

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This is the reason 2 keep a big bankroll, not the risk of going broke.

Since I got Pokertracker I have played +200K hands at 5/10 and 10/20 6max and never lost more then 300BB (a year ago, once). A normal big dowswing is 200BB for me.

My bankroll is 350BB and I have no problem putting in more $ if I hit a downswing bigger then this. I see no reason at all 2 keep more money then needed for a normal downswing at the pokersite. Why? Its a lot of money at a gambling site. I prefer my real bankaccount, they will never close down or lock my account for whatever reason (Party Poker did, got it open after 1 day but didnt feel good to have $7000 and no control.)

Rubeskies
01-28-2005, 12:57 PM
Rake rebate helps take the edge off big downswings.

It's a like a beer after a hard day of work...not that I'd know what a hard day of work is like, but it's probably a valid conjecture.

bunky9590
01-28-2005, 12:57 PM
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This is the reason 2 keep a big bankroll, not the risk of going broke.

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I agree. My psycholoical bankroll for the games is 1000 BB. Lets me sleep at night and not sweat the small stuff.

Maybe I'm just a nut, but it works for me. My ROR with that BR is microscopic.

bunky9590
01-28-2005, 01:01 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Rake rebate helps take the edge off big downswings.


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Truer words have never been spoken. I'm putting my rake rebate aside for now. Not touching it, using it as a "bonus account" that I will pull out a let it work for me. Not that its huge at this point playing only 15k hands or so a month, but its better than nothing. I really need to get a second monitor setup.

BugsBunny
01-28-2005, 01:25 PM
Just took a shot at 10/20. Down 150BB in about 2800 hands. Of course the fact that I only got AA 4 times in that stretch didn't help matters. Rest of the cards weren't much better. Draws weren't hitting etc.

So I'm back to 5/10, where I'm running very nicely at the moment. Might post stats at the end of the month with a feedback request, we'll see.

I'm back to playing to a 1000 BB bankroll. I've become protective of the bank again since I have to live off this at the moment. If I stayed at 10/20 I'm fairly certain I would have bounced back, but my psyche can't deal with it until I have more bank. Went through those stress levels earlier this year and I just don't need it again. Plus I plan on making some substantial withdrawals over the next 2 months so the bankroll won't really be growing as fast as it could. But the mental cushion + the ability to dip into the bank if need for expenses (god forbid) is worth it to me. So I like big bankrolls.

I have, however, managed to drop my SD by about 3 BB/100 at 5/10 from where it was a few months ago - and that's helping my mental state enormously.

Rake rebate helps enormously. If I can get enough hands in (rare, I also reallly need a 2 monitor setup, or at least a new computer with a decent video card. Part of the planned withdrawals) I can just about cover my minimum monthly nut with it.

tolbiny
01-28-2005, 01:49 PM
"For the month right now I'm still up over 2000 with bonuses and such"

Keeping a big enough bankroll to easily move a couple of thousand around for unexpected bonuses is definately key- having 500BB and suddenly dropping 350 of them and only having 1500 in your account can really crimp your style at 5/10.

Ponks
01-28-2005, 02:34 PM
My first 20k hands there looked like this:

+400BB, -250BB, +150BB, -200BB

Ponks

MAxx
01-28-2005, 02:51 PM
when I speak of bankroll- i mean money set aside for poker only. it is partially at poker sites, a little at netteller, some in my checking account, some in my savings acccount, etc.

I don't see any reason to keep more at a site than you reasonable need for the short term.

pfkaok
01-28-2005, 03:05 PM
Yeah, i know there was a post about this a while back, but after playing about 60k or so hands of this in the past 2 months, I think that the SD for the game really doesn't capture the swings. My variance in the game is only 15 SD/100 on PT, which isn't much higher than at the fullring games, but it seems to be way, way higher in terms of 100+ BB swings in either direction. Over about 100k hands spread between 2/4, 3/6 and 5/10 full I never had a 100BB losing session (1000 - 1500 hands), and I think I only had 1-2 100 BB winning sessions during that time as well. And it just seems like on an average session at 6max I'll either have to rebuy, or double my buyin on at least half of my tables when buying in for normal 25BB. I mean maybe the 1-2 SD/100 really is that big of a difference, swingyness wise, but I'm really starting to believe that it might be a long, long time before your winnings really do follow the normal curve model... maybe the number of hands it takes to fit it goes up at a much quicker rate than SD does for games like 6max where your SD increases. Just thinking about it though, in 6max everyone has higher VPIP, so you're playing more hands/100, and putting in probably a lot more BB/hand that you play on average, so the number of BB that you put into the pot/100 has to be way, way higher than it is in full games.

Joe826
01-28-2005, 03:57 PM
i'm taking some shots at the 10/20 too. what do you guys think is the best way to do this? i usually want to give myself a decent chance to suceed so i'll dedicate 100 BB's to a shot each time and if i lose it i'll go back to 5/10. i've done this one time and failed a few months ago, and now i'm about to try it again with a 9k bankroll. this is about the best approach i can think of.

anyone take a different approach to moving up in these games?

Victor
01-28-2005, 03:59 PM
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My bankroll is 350BB and I have no problem putting in more $ if I hit a downswing

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your bankroll is not 350bb

kiddo
01-28-2005, 04:02 PM
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i'll dedicate 100 BB's to a shot each time and if i lose it i'll go back to 5/10

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Yes, this is the way I have done. It take some time to understand the new texture and to lose the respect for the money. I dont like the idea to move up for good, it puts a pressure on u and u already got enough pressure, playing with bigger money aganist more aggressive guys.

naphand
01-28-2005, 04:05 PM
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My bankroll is 350BB and I have no problem putting in more $ if I hit a downswing bigger then this.

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This is not a bankroll of 350BB is it? Your BR is the $$ you have available to play poker with in total, if you are topping up from elsewhere, the "elsewhere" is also part of your BR.

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I see no reason at all 2 keep more money then needed for a normal downswing at the pokersite.

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I think we need to be very clear about this. The money you have in ONE poker site is not your BR, unless it is every $$ you have for playing with. I keep some in NETeller, and the rest split between 2-3 other sites. No single site has a 500 BB BR, but I do have a little over 500 BB in total. My wages pay the rent and necessities, the BR remains totally separate, I do not top up from my wages/bank account, ever. I do take money from the BR from time to time when it is very high and I am not moving up just yet (until I am comfortable, have enough hands played, have hit the WR I have set for moving up).

kiddo
01-28-2005, 04:06 PM
u mean that if u lose your bankroll u going to stop playing poker?

a lot of pokerplayers have gone broke, but they are still pokerplayers, its what they do for a living

naphand
01-28-2005, 04:12 PM
That's not what he said. If Victor plays a 500 BB BR and loses it all, he has to stop while he raises the funds to be adequately bankrolled. This is not the same as "topping-up" your account whenever you need to, the account you are topping up from is actually part of your BR. For many people, it makes a lot of sense (and is standard business practice) to separate your poker account from personal accounts.. Transferring money between one and the other does not achieve this. You could argue that you are merely "investing" in your poker business, and will recoup later, but making regular trasnfers to and from accounts blurs the boundaries and makes it too easy to keep topping up, losing track of your real position and BR deficit in the process. The received advice is to play with a separate BR, or include a proportion of you monthly wages as part of your BR, or a proportion of your personal bank account as part of your BR.

Kiddo - do you havea maximum amount you would transfer in any given month, or 6-months? This needs to be added to you poker-account BR to provide you with a real BR figure.

Victor
01-28-2005, 04:14 PM
[ QUOTE ]
That's not what he said. If Victor plays a 500 BB BR and loses it all, he has to stop while he raises the funds to be adequately bankrolled. This is not the same as "topping-up" your account whenever you need to, the account you are topping up from is actually part of your BR. For many people, it makes a lot of sense (and is standard business practice) to separate your poker account from personal accounts.. Transferring money between one and the other does not achieve this. You could argue that you are merely "investing" in your poker business, and will recoup later, but making regular trasnfers to and from accounts blurs the boundaries and makes it too easy to keep topping up, losing track of your real position and BR deficit in the process. The received advice is to play with a separate BR, or include a proportion of you monthly wages as part of your BR, or a proportion of your personal bank account as part of your BR.

Kiddo - do you havea maximum amount you would transfer in any given month, or 6-months? This needs to be added to you poker-account BR to provide you with a real BR figure.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is exactly what i meant.

kiddo
01-28-2005, 04:18 PM
I have 350BB at my pokersite (I always play at the same place) but if I lose them, of course I am not going to stop playing poker.

Its mathematically impossible that I will lose so much that I will stop playing poker.

kiddo
01-28-2005, 04:29 PM
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Kiddo - do you havea maximum amount you would transfer in any given month, or 6-months? This needs to be added to you poker-account BR to provide you with a real BR figure.

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Well, I have never ever transferd any money from my real bankaccount. Not since I put in my first $50 at Paradise Poker a little more then 2 years ago. I have always had enough money at different sites.

Im prepared to put in whatever I need as long as I am convinced that I am a big winner at the level I play. Makes no sense to say I got 1000BB or something because if I lose that much I am not a big winner at the level I play and then I will move down. And this "moving down" got nothing to do with my bankroll, its because if I do the math I will understand that a guy dropping 1000BB isnt good enough.

naphand
01-28-2005, 04:34 PM
So the transfers you talk about here are transfers from other poker sites? or NETeller?

Bellagibro
01-28-2005, 05:40 PM
Yes the swings are larger but so should your win rate if you are a skilled player. That helps offset the rough stretch that everyone goes through. It keeps me sane when I go bad.

kiddo
01-28-2005, 06:33 PM
No, I only got 350BB + a few $ at other sites (say 50BB) on the net.

Anyway, I understand what u say and yes, I am prepared to put in more so in a way my bannkroll is bigger.

sublime
01-28-2005, 06:52 PM
Just a rando thought, anyone wanna expand upon this? Add some thoughts?

people should play tighter in the blinds /images/graemlins/grin.gif