River Decision with 2-Pair, Scary Board, 2 Opponents

[spydog]

Button is LP-P (38/0/.7)
CO is LAG (60/30), but reasonable normal postflop.

What is my river plan?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (12 SB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB folds, UTG folds.

Turn: (8 BB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds.

River: (11 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero...

[Benjamin]

I'd like to showdown this hand, but I don't want to pay a raise, so I think I check/call a single bet, fold if it comes back to me raised. Chances are pretty high the straight or flush got there, but the pot's pretty big so I'm certainly paying one bet.

B.

[Scotch78]

No way to protect your hand, fair amount of scare cards . . . I'd check the flop and hope someone bets into me on a blank turn.

Scott

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]
No way to protect your hand, fair amount of scare cards . . . I'd check the flop and hope someone bets into me on a blank turn.

Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you misread something. I have TP, good kicker on the flop and I don't want to give free cards. And, only 1 person is capable of betting into me on the turn because the other 2 act behind me.

[djoyce003]

You are screwed. I probably make a crying call here, but that's most likely a leak in my game. You certainly check, and call 1 bet, fold if it comes back raised. I think you win this *maybe* 5% of the time...every draw in the world just came in and those two were lurking around for some reason...most likely str8's or flushes.

[lehighguy]

The combo straight and flush draw comming in makes me check. If it was only the straight I would bet, don't know how I handle a raise depends on players/circumstances.

[Scotch78]

[ QUOTE ]
And, only 1 person is capable of betting into me on the turn because the other 2 act behind me.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's after two players folded to your flop bet. And no, I didn't miss anything. I don't like giving free cards either, but I still think it's better to check this flop. Your flop bet makes it 13-1, so nobody is really making a mistake to call, but that is where we make our money.

Scott

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And, only 1 person is capable of betting into me on the turn because the other 2 act behind me.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's after two players folded to your flop bet. And no, I didn't miss anything. I don't like giving free cards either, but I still think it's better to check this flop. Your flop bet makes it 13-1, so nobody is really making a mistake to call, but that is where we make our money.

Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

It's true that nobody is making a mistake by calling my flop bet. It's also true that I probably have the best hand and I have the most equity for each additional dollar that goes into the pot. The flop bet is quite simply, a value bet. I don't think anyone would advocate checking this flop.

Look at it another way. By betting, they are getting worse odds to call then if I check, where they get infinite odds to draw to a free card.

[Scotch78]

You can argue with me all you want and still think you're right, so my advice is to read pps. 160-165 of SSH and then take it up with Ed Miller.

[ QUOTE ]
I have the most equity for each additional dollar that goes into the pot

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if your MHIG (likely but not certain) then Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif both have more pot equity than you.

Scott

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to showdown this hand, but I don't want to pay a raise
B.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no problem folding to a raise from the button, which is why I think this might be a value bet. The button will pay off many worse hands than mine. I'm more concerned with CO. I don't think he raises without a flush and I don't think he tries to bluff a worse hand than mine at this board against 2 people when he knows that any flush, K, 2-pair, etc... will call. I don't think he even raises his straight, for fear of a button flush that will 3-bet him or possibility of a split pot. He'll just overcall here.

So, it felt like I could bet here and safely fold to a raise from any player, but still have a chance of getting worse hands to call me.

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]
You can argue with me all you want and still think you're right, so my advice is to read pps. 160-165 of SSH and then take it up with Ed Miller.

[ QUOTE ]
I have the most equity for each additional dollar that goes into the pot

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if your MHIG (likely but not certain) then Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif both have more pot equity than you.

Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no guarantee that someone is going to lead into me on the turn. If SB bets the flop, then I would call and raise a favorable turn card.

As far as equity goes, If 3 people will call my flop bet, I only need a 26% chance of winning this pot by showdown versus their cards for each additional dollar going into the pot to benefit me. It doesn't matter if Player A has a 71% chance because that means Players B and C have a combined 3% chance of winning. So, what I am giving up to Player A is beind subsidized by Players B and C. This is basic TOP stuff.

[Scotch78]

[ QUOTE ]
I have the most equity for each additional dollar that goes into the pot

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a big difference between most and sufficient equity. There is also a big difference between a +EV play and the most +EV play. Betting this flop is +EV, but checking will be even better in the long run.

Scott

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have the most equity for each additional dollar that goes into the pot

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a big difference between most and sufficient equity. There is also a big difference between a +EV play and the most +EV play. Betting this flop is +EV, but checking will be even better in the long run.

Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

In order for your plan to work, you need to have an EP bettor into you on the turn though, no? Because with bets you're still offering almost good enough odds for hands like gutshot+pair combos, etc., to call.

Also, putting hands like Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif out there is complete bunk, and you know it; those hands are monsters on this board, and you're very very unlikely to see them. You don't gain much equity against 15 outers in a multiway pot by waiting for the turn.

Most importantly, SSH deals with waiting for the turn to raise a favorable card, rather than waiting for the turn to bet a favorable card. Giving a free card here is more -EV than betting. Nowhere in SSH does it advocate checking a flop like this with top pair, great kicker, in a multiway pot.

Additionally, this hand will not be "often ruined on the turn," one of the criterion for waiting for the turn to raise. With no bet from your left, that means there are now two key differences in this hand.

Checking this flop would be pretty bad, IMO.

Rob

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have the most equity for each additional dollar that goes into the pot

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a big difference between most and sufficient equity. There is also a big difference between a +EV play and the most +EV play. Betting this flop is +EV, but checking will be even better in the long run.

Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

In most cases, equity is equity. It's why you raise the nut flush draw on a flop where you can get multiple callers. You only have 33% equity, but each additional 3-way dollar is benefiting you. It might be benefiting someone else more, but that shouldn't matter to you.

You should only wait until the turn to raise when you feel confident that someone will bet the turn. That clearly isn't the case in this spot.


Aside from the flop/turn play, I am most interested in the river decision.

[Entity]

spydog,

If you have no fear of a bluff-raise from Button (and you sound like you don't), I'd bet-fold this. However, if Button would raise with two-pair hands here, it shifts it closer to a bet-call. Would he raise with KTo, K9o, KQo, etc., on this board, or is he passive enough that he wouldn't do that?

I don't like checking the river at all, unless someone is very likely to bluff a worse hand.

Rob

[Scotch78]

[ QUOTE ]
putting hands like Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif out there is complete bunk, and you know it

[/ QUOTE ]

I mentioned those hands to show that the hero doesn't necessarily have the most equity on the flop, not as an actual factor in the decision. His equity would be roughly the same against one of them as it would be against one opponent with an open-ender and another with the flush draw, though.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, SSH deals with waiting for the turn to raise a favorable card, rather than waiting for the turn to bet

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, and I honestly don't know how this affects the situation. I would be very interested to hear from Ed on this. However . . .

[ QUOTE ]
with bets you're still offering almost good enough odds

[/ QUOTE ]

A small error is still an error.

Scott

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Agreed, and I honestly don't know how this affects the situation. I would be very interested to hear from Ed on this. However . . .


[/ QUOTE ]
It's the most key point of the discussion. I've tried to get Ed to comment on it in several threads, as the concept of "waiting for the turn to raise" has been misinterpreted by many good players as "waiting for the turn to bet," which is patently incorrect.

The concept that has helped me with these situations is this: when unable to raise to protect your hand, bet for value. Checking the flop does nothing here, as you forego an opportunity to make an +EV bet (your equity on this flop will generally be in the range of 40% on this flop), and also allow for a free card.

Rob

[cjx]

I think the question is which is better:
Bet, fold to a raise. Optimally betting for value, but also because it is unlikely that even the straight may not raise here getting you a 1 bet showdown. Obviously folding if it's raised. Good because you get your value bet in when still ahead; bad because you don't get to showdown when raised (may not see the raiser's hand either if the other guy folds... that could be painful)

OR

Check, call one, fold if it's raised. I like this better because I think you'll get to a showdown more often than above and will lose the same amount (above, bet it gets raised, you fold; here you check call and you lose to say the straight). Value bets are all fine and good, but I don't want to lose a pot this big on a river scare card. Good because you get to see more showdowns; bad because you miss what I am going to call a VERY THIN value bet.

cjx

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]
spydog,

If you have no fear of a bluff-raise from Button (and you sound like you don't), I'd bet-fold this. However, if Button would raise with two-pair hands here, it shifts it closer to a bet-call. Would he raise with KTo, K9o, KQo, etc., on this board, or is he passive enough that he wouldn't do that?

I don't like checking the river at all, unless someone is very likely to bluff a worse hand.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

I have 400+ hands with the button. I'm 100% confident that I can fold to his raise. HU, it's bet-fold with this guy. No question. He will call with worse hands and raise only with better hands. It's the CO that makes this a little more difficult.

Will he raise a flush? Yes

Will he bluffraise a worse hand? Not likely against 2 players.

Will he raise a straight? Not really sure. Maybe 50/50. He's decent postflop, so I think he recognizes that this would be a good call for him. But maybe not.

Will he call a worse hand? Again. Not really sure.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Check, call one, fold if it's raised. I like this better because I think you'll get to a showdown more often than above and will lose the same amount (above, bet it gets raised, you fold; here you check call and you lose to say the straight). Value bets are all fine and good, but I don't want to lose a pot this big on a river scare card. Good because you get to see more showdowns; bad because you miss what I am going to call a VERY THIN value bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is only a good line to take when your opponents are very aggressive after the flop. Against these opponents, it's very likely that betting the river here is best. Do you see why?

Rob

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
spydog,

If you have no fear of a bluff-raise from Button (and you sound like you don't), I'd bet-fold this. However, if Button would raise with two-pair hands here, it shifts it closer to a bet-call. Would he raise with KTo, K9o, KQo, etc., on this board, or is he passive enough that he wouldn't do that?

I don't like checking the river at all, unless someone is very likely to bluff a worse hand.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

I have 400+ hands with the button. I'm 100% confident that I can fold to his raise. HU, it's bet-fold with this guy. No question. He will call with worse hands and raise only with better hands. It's the CO that makes this a little more difficult.

Will he raise a flush? Yes

Will he bluffraise a worse hand? Not likely against 2 players.

Will he raise a straight? Not really sure. Maybe 50/50. He's decent postflop, so I think he recognizes that this would be a good call for him. But maybe not.

Will he call a worse hand? Again. Not really sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, my last questions should have said CO rather than Button. I'm not worried about Button at all here.

Anyway, I think it comes down to a question of whether CO will bluff-raise a worse hand than yours 1 time in 15, which is pretty rare here. It definitely makes this a tricky river, but I'd consider bet-folding here regardless, because CO has to bluff-raise two opponents on this river, which means if he's decent postflop he's unlikely to try to pull it off, especially with a 4-straighted and 3-flushed board.

Rob

[cjx]

[ QUOTE ]

This is only a good line to take when your opponents are very aggressive after the flop. Against these opponents, it's very likely that betting the river here is best. Do you see why?

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're insinuating that you can bet-fold with extreme confidence here so check-calling (or check around) would miss a bet on the end, but I guess I'm just not that confident and I REALLY don't want to laydown the winner in this pot.

cjx

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

This is only a good line to take when your opponents are very aggressive after the flop. Against these opponents, it's very likely that betting the river here is best. Do you see why?

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're insinuating that you can bet-fold with extreme confidence here so check-calling (or check around) would miss a bet on the end, but I guess I'm just not that confident and I REALLY don't want to laydown the winner in this pot.

cjx

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, check-calling will never win me an extra bet, because a passive player won't bluff at this river often enough to make check-calling +EV. So I lose one bet when behind and gain 0 bets when ahead.

You're right that folding a winner is problematic, but against a passive player who will call with worse hands, I think you'd be doing a disservice by checking this river. If you even think there's some hint of trickiness, checking or bet-calling could be a better play, as the pot is very large.

Rob

[Benjamin]

[ QUOTE ]
If you even think there's some hint of trickiness, checking or bet-calling could be a better play, as the pot is very large.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
CO is LAG (60/30), but reasonable normal postflop.


[/ QUOTE ]
When I've got a LAG in the pot I certainly think tricky aggressive play is a possiblity, even if I haven't seen him pull anything postflop so far.

B.