Online poker pros have a 0% chance of having a losing month..

[LImitPlayer]

Agree or not? Just curious as to what others think about this.

I think the chances of having a losing week are fairly high but I think the chances of an online poker pro having a loosing month is pretty much non-existant.

I define a "pro" as a winning player, someone who plays poker for a living, as their only source of income.

Now I'm talking strictly online, B & M would be a different story.

Look at all the advantages of playing online

The ability to make notes on players and look at those notes during play, tools such as pokertracker, playerview or gametime, rakeback plans ,the ability to choose your tables not be assigned to one, the abilty to multi-table and the sheer # of hands you can play per hour vs playing at a B & M Casino. Not to mention no travel time, no traveling costs, no tips and less rake etc.

Lets say an online pro play 40 hours per week(some will play more, some less) playing 4-8 tables at a time will net you anywhere from 40,000 80,000 hands a month.

A B&M player playing the same # of hours per week will end up with anywhere from 60-70k hands in a a year.

A poker player can have swings that can span 10, 20 or even at the extremes 30k hands( but with the tools available to an online player, Pokertracker, Playerview, Gametime, notemaking ability, rakeback etc there is no way an winning online pro player can have swings that put him in the negative over a month period.

The tools available to him are to good.

Agree or disagree?

[thetman]

Not sure if I totally agree,but losing months should be rare.

[emonrad87]

I wouldnt say it's impossible (because, statistically, ANYTHING is possible). But with a good rakeback deal and playing that many hands per month, it seems like it would be very very unlikely.

[bisonbison]

After 30k hands, someone with a win-rate of 1BB/100 and an SD of 15 will have a losing month less than 15% of the time.

[x2ski]

I've personally had months where I was very close to losing, excluding rake back. In fact, within the last 3 months, I had 2 streaks in which I was in the red for 3 weeks at a time. Of course, I was still adjusting to 3/6 (and still am), but I never ever had anything close from .05/.10 (started in May) up to 2/4. I also only throw down about 30,000 hands/month.

Therefore, I think it is in fact very possible, regardless of my qualifications, that losing months can and will occur.

In fact, I think bicyclekick made a post about his first losing month a couple of months ago. I apologize to bk in advance if I am mistaken.

[LImitPlayer]

Ok I'm not a stats person so;

If a players winrate is 2 BB/100 hands whats the chance he will have a losing month?

Also, if a winning player were to have a losing month wouldn't it be a very minor loss? A winning player isn't going to go 40K + hands in a month and lose huge. If he were I wouldn't classify him as a winning player.Also wouldn't Rakeback cover these minor losses and put them into a profit situation?

Also how many people are playing online as a pro that have a winrate that low? Not including semi-pros or people playing for fun

Very Few i would suspect..

[lefty rosen]

The tilt factor alone can induce bad play. I play 20 hours a week and minimum 2 table short and I have had half dozen weak months over the past two and half years. They happen alot more than you think(I didn't get a rakeback deal to cushion the marginal winning months)....... /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[bisonbison]

I've played as many hands this month as ever, but I'm experiencing my first month of bad results. I'm not losing, but I'm winning at about 40% of the rate I'd had over the last 120k hands. I just pored over a bunch of stats and other than the fact that I've tightened up (because 3/6 has become a pit for multiing TAGs), I don't notice anything really different. All that's going on is that I'm winning less money with my moneymaking hands. AA and KK are doing well but all my unpaired face cards are making much less than normal. There are obviously more hands and leaks and so on involved than that, but it's just a reminder: the game is fluid and the long run is really really long.

[Alobar]

it will happen, I've had one losing month in over 14 months of playing poker. I lost a grand total of $50. Tho I didnt get alot of hands in that month, so I suppose if it were to only count months where you played 160 hours, then its a different story, but you cant do that every month

[dogmeat]

Not true.

I don't play eight tables, and most online players (at least those that post here) do not. Most do not play as many hands as you suggest. Even playing four tables and 173.5 hours (8 hours a day, 5 days a week) does not make 40,000 hands.

I would say the odds are slim, but I know I had a stretch of 5 weeks where I was about even (it straddled calendar months, so I managed a win in both months).

I don't count my rakeback because it is not part of my win. When adding that to my "income", sure, I did fine both months if I don't mind only have a few thousand in income for an 8-week period.

Please remember that for a professional, a month where you only break even, or only win say $1000, is a tough month to deal with. If I only make $3000 for two months, but have $5000 in expenses, it looks like a losing month to me. Not everybody is at college with low expenses. Some of us have mortgages, kids in college, car payments etc.

Dogmeat /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[LImitPlayer]

Sure it's going to suck if you have 5K in expenses and only made 3k profit for the month but it is still a winning month.

My post wasn't in regards to being able to live off of your winnings merely it would be very difficult for a pro player to sustain a loss over a one month period.

4 tables of 210 hands an hour at a 40 hour week (going with 50 weeks in a year) equals 35,000 hands in a month. (this still seems kind of low to me for a player who's sole income is online poker)

A winning online player would be hard pressed to hit a streak of 35,000 hands were he is at a loss. If he did manage to get into the negative rakebacks would most likely pop him back up into the positive, therefore it's a winning month.

Has anyone who plays 35,000 hands minimum a month had a losing month, including the rakeback? Or take it a step further has anyone had a 35k hand strech where they were in the negative includiong rakeback bonuses?

Dogmeat:



As far as it being difficult to find the time to put that many hours in playing poker, it shouldn't be if you are a pro and poker is your only source of income. Most people work 40 hours a week or more plus travel time.

If you have $5000 in expenses but only made $3000 that month playing poker your $2000 in the hole for that month.
So what? What about the months where you have made $10000 or $12000 and had a surplus of $5000-$7000.

Looking at it month to month seems kind of narrow minded to me. I was self-employed for numerous years in an industry where I always lost money in every one of my 3 stores every May and June. It was the way the industry worked.

It was never a tough 2 month to deal with because you have to look at the bigger picture. The total for the year is all that mattered.

BTW I am not in college, I have a morgatge, car leases etc. and a fiance who shops to much.

Anyways can anyone point out a stretch of 35k hands where they have lost money, Including rakebacks? No one has yet.

Anyways I'm not trying to be arguementative, just trying to stir up a discussion

[deacsoft]

I got OWNED in December, but I did take a long break that same month. So, who knows how it could have turned out.

[skp]

Well, i don't know about the specifics in your post, but your general point is no doubt valid i.e. a proven winner is much less likely to have a losing month online than in B&M.

My sessions won percentage is way way higher online than in B&M. So, one can extend your general point to say that a winning player is much less likely to have a losing session online than in B&M play.

[BusterStacks]

This month is my losing month. I am running so bad I can barely play.

[pokerjo22]

[ QUOTE ]
other than the fact that I've tightened up (because 3/6 has become a pit for multiing TAGs)

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't that pretty much all it takes? Hands make less because there are fewer fish paying them off.

[bisonbison]

Yeah, I'm just hoping that my win rate hasn't restabilized at half its formerness.

[fearme]

what if ur a high limit player in the 100-200 game, those guys swing g's all the time and the players there are better, but if u multitable the lower limit games then it gets real hard to have a losing month

[Freakin]

[ QUOTE ]
This month is my losing month. I am running so bad I can barely play.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Vollycat]

[ QUOTE ]
This month is my losing month. I am running so bad I can barely play.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm with you on this one Buster... I've got a limp the cards have hurt so much this month. Confidence--shaken. Stomach--acid reflux. Level of play--tilty. Ack.

[BusterStacks]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This month is my losing month. I am running so bad I can barely play.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm with you on this one Buster... I've got a limp the cards have hurt so much this month. Confidence--shaken. Stomach--acid reflux. Level of play--tilty. Ack.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah, only the true bad-runner could know these symptoms. I'm half-convinced I have been lucky this far.

[joedot]

I agree. I have never had a losing month in the 3 years I've been playing for a living. I think I've only had 2 losing weeks during the past year, and that was when I lost control and played up trying to chase back losses at a higher limit than I should have been playing (I learned my lesson.) In fact, I rarely even have a losing day. I think if people are losing for a whole month, it says more about their play than the cards. I know my situation is different from a lot of people because I have a set amount of money that I win each day, and as soon as I hit it, I quit for the day. I can't remember the last losing day I had, but it has been at least a month.

[GuyOnTilt]

December and this January have been the worst two months I've had to date. I've just been running like crap. The crappiness of December's 250 BB downswing was only made crappier by other huge expenditures and stuff, and January's 250 BB downswing is still not fully back to break even yet, but somehow I'm still up quite a bit for the month. I don't play a ton of hours either, for a "pro" anyway. Having said that, I wouldn't be surprised if I had a losing month somewhere along the way. With current game conditions, probably not, but somewhere down the line, sure.

GoT

[B1GF1SHY]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't remember the last losing day I had, but it has been at least a month.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow

[umdpoker]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't remember the last losing day I had, but it has been at least a month.


[/ QUOTE ]

how many hands a day do you play?

[dogmeat]

I never said that having a month where you only make x-amount is devastating, or that the previous months should not be able to "prop it up", I simply ment that when you have expenses that are well above your earn, a losing/break even streak sucks.

It would appear that David Ross' loss of $15K in 9 days will give him a net loser for the month of January. Others seem to be saying they too are experiencing some problems. This is probably due to the fact that streaks happen, and there may be many more "high-caliber" players at $15/$30 than these guys thought. Or it could have something to do with other factors.

Dogmeat /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[DeeJ]

December and January are the two months that are quoted in the RGP thread for Party Pooping the Pros.

I'm sure it's one big coincidence, but when you see davidross losing 500BB money in otherwise good games, you gotta start wondering if they're worried about too many sharks eating all the fish (especially as they wanna float their company). Or it could be luck /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[warlockjd]

If the game is Party 6max, $100 NL, wholeheartedly agree. I think my chances of winning the lottery are better.