Anyone think I screwed this up?

[on_thg]

Pushing the bubble in tonight's $10+1 Prima NL MTT. 43 players left, 40 cash. I have about 5,500 chips, which is half the average stack. Blinds are 400/800.

I'm dealt TT on the button.

A short stack (T1600) goes all-in from early position. Another smaller stack goes all-in from middle position with about T3400. Folded around to me.

I have the SB behind me covered, the BB has about T24000. I've been at the table for a couple orbits, and the BB has not been shy about pushing people around.

My analysis is: Fold and I can probably limp into the money (I'm about 35th in chips). I can call or push.

I choose to call. Anyone not like this play? I don't think that raising all-in (for another 2000 or so) is going to give the BB pause.

I liked calling better than folding, as bottom money isn't all that great. It wasn't possible to put the first all-in on a hand, since s/he was in push mode. The second all-in was of a little more concern -- I saw the move as being more likely to be a smaller pair or non-paired broadway cards to try and get heads-up with the first pusher. I could (obviously) be wrong there, but that was my thinking.

Results below:
<font color="white"> SB and BB fold. First pusher has AJo, second has 88. Second pusher gets his 8 on the flop, I lose. I'm a favorite against either hand, but only 46% to win</font>

[Lloyd]

You're calling off more than half your stack. I'm guessing you're doing that so you can fold and still have enough chips to possibly wind up in the money in case you don't like the flop.

But let's say you get called by the big stack and he pushes you on the flop. There will be 14300 in the pot and it will cost you another 2100 so you're getting almost 7 to 1 odds. What kind of a flop would it take for you to fold? The answer should be none! Given that he has a big stack he can put you to the test knowing that if you didn't connect you might fold to get in the money. So he could push with a pretty wide range of hands.

If you fold, you obviously don't lose any chips and will probably get in the money but with a small stack making it tough to move up. If you push and don't get called you're in pretty good shape getting almost 2 to 1 odds. If you push and get called you certainly have less of a chance of winning but you'll still be getting almost 2 to 1 odds and if you lose to the MP but still beat the BB (who could be calling with a wide range of hands) you're only down to 4200.

If we put the first pusher on any pair, AK-AT, or KQ, and the second pusher on AA-66 and AK-AJ, TT is just better than a 2-1 dog. So it's a pretty close decision. If making the money is important to you, call. If you're willing to bust out (or take a big hit) to try and start building a stack, push. I think a call is the worst possible move. Because of the various stack sizes and the odds I'd be getting, I push.

[DonButtons]

I would also push here.

Making the money isn't going to pay the bills in the long run, its those final tables that pay the bills.

[on_thg]

Thanks for the input. The more I thought about this hand, the less I liked it -- for one thing, TT sure plays a lot better heads up than in a 3 way pot.

Still, I think there may be some small advantage to calling rather than pushing in that it may provide (slightly) less incentive for the BB to come along for the ride with any 2 cards. It wouldn't make much of a difference to him in terms of his committment to the post (1/5 stack vs 1/6), but the appeal of possibly knocking 3 players out might be more powerful than the prospect of only knocking 2 out and drag him in with any 2 cards. Table image isn't a big factor either way -- on one hand, I've got to be seen as extremely tight (I've had no hands worth playing at this table), but on the other I may be seen as weak.

You're certainly right about the end result -- if he calls and then puts me to the test, I pretty much HAVE to push the balance in if I call preflop.

Thanks again.

[West]

[ QUOTE ]
Still, I think there may be some small advantage to calling rather than pushing in that it may provide (slightly) less incentive for the BB to come along for the ride with any 2 cards. It wouldn't make much of a difference to him in terms of his committment to the post (1/5 stack vs 1/6), but the appeal of possibly knocking 3 players out might be more powerful than the prospect of only knocking 2 out and drag him in with any 2 cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

2000 chips is 2000 chips. Calling is giving the BB improved pot odds to see the flop at a cheaper absolute cost. You especially do not want to tempt him to call given your hand - if he has a hand like KQ, it may be the difference between him calling and folding.

If he wants to come along with any two cards, that's great, if one of them is ten or lower he may be adding a bunch of money to the pot at little additional risk to you. It's false psychology to think he is more likely to call because he'll know he can knock you out if you push.

[Lloyd]

The BB would be a complete moron (which is certainly a possibility) to think that you'd fold on the flop to any bet. Therefore, he could still call cold call pre-flop thinking he has the chance of knocking out 3 players.

Now, you could make an argument that a stop and go might be appropriate here and that might not be a bad idea. If someone is going to call the second raise, they would surely call your third raise. I didn't think of that originally because it's usually something you do out of the blinds but you will be first to act on the flop so it applies here. But you have to be willing to commit all your chips regardless of the flop. Once the flop comes, you push and hope for the best. But because the BB is a big stack, he'll most likely call with the huge odds he's getting.

So it all comes down to what you think looks stronger - cold calling or pushing. Which one of those pre-flop actions would represent the bigger hand. In this case, I think pushing does. Cold calling around the bubble usually represents a smaller stack afraid of busting out.

[Jason Strasser]

Why dont you give a real analysis/thought process. This doesnt seem so simple.

-Jason

[schwza]

i think this is a fold. the second pusher will probably have a decent hand to risk going home on the bubble. losing the short stack will not bust him, but he'll be close enough that he'll have to go all-on on his big blind (or give up a lot of equity by folding). and i don't think hero wants to play a coinflip with the bigger stack here, especially with the risk of one of the blinds waking up with a monster.

if you lose to the small stack and beat the big, it's about breakeven. if you lose to the big, you'll be down to 2100 and have to go all-on on your BB. i don't think that playing is +EV enough to justify the risk of not making the money.

and if you do play, i don't think it matters (except maybe on some psychological level) whether you push or call. if the BB does call, he's putting in 2600 chips. for him to not put in hero's remaining 2100 on any flop would be a surprising (and bad, IMO) play.