stealing on the bubble

[Strollen]

Recently there was a discussion about stealing with <10xBB.

Here is hand I feel I played poorly, but I am not sure if my mistake was preflop, or after the flop.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t3500)
SB (t2020)
BB (t1480)
Hero (t1000)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t250</font>, Button folds, SB calls t200, BB folds.

Flop: (t600) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB calls [t1820] , Hero folds.

Final Pot: t600

Reads: SB has VPIP of ~25% (which is pretty low cause we were 4 hands with blinds still at 30). He has semibluff once.
Both SB, BB have folded to a lot of steals/all-in by myself and the button.

I showed some monster hands early, but was caught stealing with A8o vs AQ and loss my stack to the button.

I didn't really feel comfortable pushing with A5o but it seems to good a hand to fold as small stack. The button berated me for folding after the flop, but I thought the only thing I was going to beat was a pair of queens.

[Gramps]

I assume from your description that SB pushed into on the flop.

I think you were definitely right in not pushing A5o UTG here. But...those 250 chips that you're putting at risk to win 150 have a lot of value. If you fold and pay your 150 in blinds the next two hands, you still have some fold equity at the 100/200 level. If you lose your 250 and pay your blinds, you're down to 600 and very likely you're going to have to show down a hand instead of having a chance to build back your stack through pure stealing. I think the risk of raising or pushing doesn't justify the reward. It's going to be tough to call an over the top push, and tough to play on the flop if called.

I'd say fold (preflop) and be patient. You also have enough chips by folding so that if you do pick up a decent hand in the blinds, you have some folding equity in pushing over the top of a raiser.

As the hand played out, I'd be more inclined to call the (flop) push if the SB had BB's # of chips. That way, if you called and won, you'd have almost wrapped up 3rd place at the worst (SB would be down to 300-something in chips). As it is, SB will still have 1k in chips if you win, so it's tough. Sure he might have a diamond/no pair, but he also might have Ace-better kicker (you're a big dog), or Ace better kicker/diamond (you're an even bigger dog). Even against a pair of Queens/diamond kicker, you're only about a coinflip. Ugh.

[Strollen]

Thanks gramps.
What would be the range of hands that you would try to steal with?.
My thinking would be AXs or A9+, any two broadway cards. Is that too loose?

[nokona13]

anyone know the odds of winning when you have two cards between a single opponent's two cards (ie you have KQ, he has AT). Assume they're both either suited or unsuited, but not one suited and the other un.

I ask this basically because I'm not confident in how I play on the bubble late in tourney's. I've been very aggressive recently with hands like KQ and QJ, even KJ, and I've been wondering if that's generally a good idea late and on the bubble?

[Sidekick]

I would personally fold this hand preflop unless I've had a supertight table image up to this point or the remaining players have shown themselves to be very tight and only play premium hands.

The reason I would fold preflop is that as the short stack it is too easy for someone to have a hand that dominates yours and 2 of the 3 players can pretty easily call off all your chips without a great deal of risk to themselves. You also have 10x BB in chips. While you are the short stack, you aren't hurting.

Now having said that, I don't think the 250 raise is that terrible. It's just that your bet says one of two things:
1. I want to steal your blinds and this is the least amount of chips I think I can do it with.
2. I have a monster hand... come play with me please.

The other thing to consider is that if up until this point you have always made a preflop raise of at least 3x BB, then this sized bet will suddenly scream WEAK to an observant player and if they come over the top what do you plan to do?

I think the fold on the flop to the all-in push was the smart thing to do in this situation.

When it's on the bubble and I'm trying to steal from UTG, I try and only do it with a hand that I'm willing to push with or call (reluctantly perhaps) someone that comes back over the top of me. A5o just doesn't fall into that group.

Let the button berate you all he wants. He didn't call the preflop raise or participate in the hand. You were trying to steal, not play a premium hand.

Hope this helps.

[Strollen]

Nokona
In general, hands with one over card and one under will beat 2 smaller cards between 55 and 60% of the time, being suited adds 3%.

So my A5 is pretty good against KJ etc. Where it sucks is against pair of sixs or above where it is 70-30 dog, where as the KJ is only a slight dog 52-48.

Lots of poker odds calculators here are two
twodimes (http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&amp;b=+&amp;d=+&amp;h=Kc+Jh%0D%0A6c+6h%0D%0A) and card player (http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_odds/texas_holdem.php?PHPSESSID=a0c4a7ffeab1e95ba9161cf 314fa6cb5)

[gehrig]

Push or fold preflop.

Pushing isn't really a bad idea. You have a ton of folding equity here. If you'll get called by AA-88, AK-AJ, you'll steal the blinds 83% of the time, when you only need to steal 74% of the time to break even in terms chip equity.

The way you played it preflop makes your play the rest of the way harder than it has to be. If you're reraised you don't have the odds to call. If you see a flop and it's checked to you, the pot's big enough that you probably have to push and pray. If you're bet into on the flop, you don't feel good about your hand unless you can beat top pair.

[schwza]

push. nobody wants to get 4th.

[syka16]

[ QUOTE ]

What would be the range of hands that you would try to steal with?.
My thinking would be AXs or A9+, any two broadway cards. Is that too loose?

[/ QUOTE ]

at 10BB on the bubble I'm pushing: 44, A4s, A80, all suited broadway, all other broadway better than QTo and I tighten up on a loose table.