Flush - Key To Success?

[MrMon]

I've been in a terrible downward spiral for about two weeks and I've been going through my stats to try to find a reason. I've tried tightening up, been very careful not to bluff too much, etc., nothing works, although I have managed to pull a few wins to keep the spiral from going completely out of control. Then I realized something - when was the last time I hit a flush? Off to PokerTracker...

Sure enough, there it was. A lack of flushes. I started the month great, lots of flushes. Losing streak starts, very few flushes. (Two flushes in two weeks, one lost.) If I go back the past few months, which were profitable, there they are. Same number of games per month, but flushes were hitting almost 3x the rate per game. (November - 2.85%, December - 2.37%, January 1-15 - 2.75%, since January 15 - 0.95%

I keep getting flush draws on the flop, but never connect. But since I semibluff a lot with the flush draw, as you get little action once the 3rd card hits, it gets expensive to miss all the time. (My opponents, on the other hand, seem to have the ability to hit the final two cards to get theirs and beat my flopped two pair.)

This may be mere coincidence, but has anyone else ever noticed this trend, a correlation between flushes and SnG ITM finishes. Not game for game exactly, but just in general? I'm not seeing it for boats or straights, just flushes. And if it's true, why? I notice that the flush is a very profitable hand, but maybe because it masks itself until the 3rd card hits, you can make more money with it, unlike the full house, where it's doubtful your opponent also has a hand. I'm guessing the flush wins power you with enough chips to get through to the end and play the other hands.

I'm going to do a bit more research on my data, but I'd be interested in hearing what others think of the idea or if they have similar data. Check your last bad losing streak, was there a lack of flushes - or some other hand for that matter?

[Sluss]

I don't have any statistical data to back this up, but when I catch a flush early. With an Ax soooted and action from a smaller flush I seem to do well. Most of this is because I pick up a stack early and then can steal blinds without any concern once we get to level three and four.

As for your opponent always catching when you have two pair welcome to a bad streak. Or should I say hell.

[zaphod]

The number of flushes i hit is definatly not the key to sucsess for me. I usually never play to get the flush. Suited cards early i usually don't play them, too expensive.

[swarm]

"Suited cards early i usually don't play them, too expensive."

That is something you may want to look at, you may be playing for too many flush draws and draining your chips on them. It's easy to get addicted to betting into them to heavy after a hot run...

I swear the biggest thing for success in SNG's is tightening up, the tighter the better almost. I find my success is a direct correlation of me trying to get to cute with hands.

[revots33]

I think T.J Cloutier in one of his books says that he treats cards being suited as just a little bonus, not a deciding factor in whether to play the hand or not. I tend to agree. The flush only comes in 6% of the time, and in NL you often have to pay dearly to draw to it.

Maybe you are semi-bluffing too much when all you have is a flush draw. If you have a pair or backdoor straight possibilities it might make it more worthwhile. But if you are behind in the hand with no legitimate shot to win other than hitting the flush, you're almost a 2-1 underdog. Maybe I'm too conservative, but I usually will just check and call if I have nothing but a flush draw. What is your play when your opponent with TPTK re-raises you after your bluff?

Flushes are great when they hit but I don't think they are a key to winning, since over the long run everyone will get a flush the same amount of time (which isn't very often to begin with). I think a bigger key is protecting your stack in the beginning stages, giving you ammunition to fight when the blinds get serious. You might be bleeding away too many chips on your flush draws early in tournaments.

[MrMon]

I'm not talking about just suited cards, we're talking flush draw after the flop with two overs. When that goes dry, yeah, it's gonna be a big drain. The semi-bluff is a good play here, but not when it doesn't hit for two weeks.

[willie24]

[ QUOTE ]
I think a bigger key is protecting your stack in the beginning stages, giving you ammunition to fight when the blinds get serious.

[/ QUOTE ]

hit the nail on the head

[sofere]

I used to have a similar problem. I would fall in love with the flush draw, especially semibluffing it. The point I think revots was making about suited cards is that even if its cheap to stay in the hand, the flop often leads to temptation, and that can cost you pretty big.

Be careful when semibluffing flush draws because there are a lot of pitfalls to it.

(a) You often build the pot too much after the flop that you can't get a ways from the draw after the turn.

(b) A flush draw with iffy suited cards (like Q7s or something) isn't always very good. For one thing, if you hit, you may very well lose to another flush draw. Also, pretty much the only hand you can make that will hold up is the flush (especially if there are overcards on the board)

(c) If you're playing the lower limits, you probably won't be able to get people to lay down their mediocre hands such as top pair bad kicker.

I'd suggest to slow down on the semibluffing and go into check mode and call if you have good odds. One exception might be if you have other draws or may have the best hand already (i.e. top pair with draw, or AK overcards with draw)

[sofere]

Oh yeah, one more thing...I used to believe that since you had around a 40% chance of making a flush when 4 suited that calling 3:2 pot odds after the flop was +ev. I quickly realized that the inevitable turn bet screws you over.

Instead I only consider pot odds now for the chance of getting the flush on the next card

[revots33]

Well I guess I'm just more conservative than you, especially in the earlier stages of a tournament. I just don't like bluffing when all I have is a 4 to a flush after the flop. The odds are still against me getting the 5th of my suit on the turn or river, and there's a very good chance I'm currently behind to someone with a pair or better. I'd still check and call if the pot was laying correct odds but I wouldn't risk a lot of chips on a draw. Plus, I think you overestimate the likelihood of opponents not giving you any action once the 3rd suit hits. If they have a good hand they will frequently call anyway. While you might not win as much, I think this is offset by all the chips you save when your bluff doesn't work.

Later, especially if my stack's getting small in relation to the blinds, I might go for a semi-bluff, and play more aggressively in general.

My feeling is that many players bluff (or semi-bluff) too much in the beginning stages of tournaments when there's no need to take any gambles - even calculated ones. Protecting my stack is my main goal at that stage. In the early stages of a tournament, losing $250 of your stack hurts a lot more than winning $250 helps.

Maybe I play too tight, but I can't see bemoaning the fact that a flush hasn't come in for a while, when the odds are 2-1 against it hitting anyway. Even 50-50 shots have long dry spells, and getting the 5th suit after you've flopped 4 is much worse than 50-50.

[assron]

but sooted cards look so nice with the 4-color deck on /images/graemlins/wink.gif