Stupid play or decent semibluff?

[mctommy015]

I've been running quite well at the table, and am up like 20BB, so my image is pretty good. The villian, who i suspect may be one of you, seems to be a good player.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB folds.

Flop: (7.40 SB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero calls.

This just seemed like one of those bluff raises where they put you on overcards and assumed you missed. Either that or he has an 8 or small pocket pair.

Turn: (5.70 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls.

Here I figure that if he has an 8, or small pocket pair, I have 15 outs to the best hand, or 9 to the nut flush, and he might fold figuring I have an A. When he calls I know he has the A.

River: (9.70 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

I get lucky and hit my card, yay.

Final Pot: 11.70 BB

Is this an okay play to make every now and then? Or am I just throwing away money most of the time?

[Yads]

I think this is a good play given your reads. The key is will he fold more than 18% of the time?

[Guy McSucker]

I'm putting the villain on an overpair here, and not a big one: nines or tens, with the possibility of a suited ace that's made two pair or something.

The turn check-raise is good if this guy has the ability to lay his hand down fearing an ace. It certainly makes it look like you have one.

Once he calls, you need to hit, but you've got a good many outs. Some of your improving cards will cost you a bet sometimes, but there's plenty of value in the semibluff I think.

Guy.

[PokerNoob]

I think this is ok. You are going to get 3-bet quite a bit by good players though. He coldcalled after MP coldcalled and he's good. I'd say half the time he's going to have a set, 76, or have you (what he thinks is) reverse dominated. I would only do this if he's capable of folding. I'm interested in knowing what he played this way, Ace and semi-ok kicker?

[spydog]

I think this is excellent poker.

You aren't getting 3.85:1 on your semibluff CR. You are getting much better odds than that because you are going to call his bet anyway. So, your 'bluff' is only costing you 1 extra bet, which means he only has to fold 1 in 8.7 times for the extra bet to bet profitable.

I'm not sure of this math, but I think I'm correct here. If someone sees any flaws in this thinking, please correct me.