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View Full Version : Party $11, QQ flop decision


Gravy (Gravy Smoothie)
01-27-2005, 05:18 PM
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t1280)
BB (t1565)
Hero (t700)
UTG+1 (t1385)
MP1 (t1125)
MP2 (t505)
CO (t790)
Button (t650)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t120</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls t120, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls t90.

Flop: (t375) K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero...</font>

Laomedon
01-27-2005, 05:54 PM
!!EDIT!! Ok wow, I totally misread this hand as the pot is threehanded on the flop not heads up. My bad. At this point, you're definitely in a difficult spot as you're out of position. My recommendation of a 1/2 to 3/4 pot bet remains, with the qualification that checking is now a much more viable option. Unfortunately, there is no doubt in my mind that if you check MP1 bets and you will have to fold. Despite the fact that I know realize the pot is three-way, I still recommend a 3/4-pot bet with the intention of folding to a reraise. I'm probably dead wrong though.

Hero bets 1/2 to 3/4 of the pot and takes it down 60% of the time. Of course if you get reraised you chuck your hand and are short-stacked very early in the tournament. Most of the time in this situation MP1 could be on a range of hands from AK-A9 or worse or mid-pockets. I don't see KK or AA simply calling your preflop bet. Therefore it doesn't seem likely that MP1 is getting tricky with either AA or KK. I also feel like AK would bet this flop most of the time. It seems to me that you're almost certainly ahead here. Of course, my cynical nature leads me to believe that MP1 has something like 77 and is setting you up (which is why you decided to post this hand in the first place). I'll repeat however that, despite my convoluted analysis, most of the time you're ahead and you'll take the pot down with a 1/2 to 3/4 pot bet.