What hands should he call with? (with POLL)

[Al_Capone_Junior]

Supervising the end of a 5 table live tournament in vegas this week.

Player in the BB is in question here. There are five left. P1, short stacked, goes all-in for about double the BB. P2 goes all-in for about another BB more than that. P3 goes all-in over the top for a large amount (he was chip leader). P4 folded.

The BB had about half as many chips as the chip leader.

Assume the payout structure was 34% for 1st, 20% for second, 15% third, and on down (paid six places total).

A friend and I were discussing quietly during the hand (from a distance) what we would call with. I said "AA for sure, and KK maybe, but everything else absolutely not." My friend agreed.

The BB agonized for a while and finally folded. He nearly hit the roof when the board showed A A Q K 7 rainbow (he had folded AKo).

Despite the results, I have absolutely 0% doubt that he made the correct play by folding.

al

[Paul2432]

I don't know if it matters, but did this tournament use the rule that if two (or more) players bust on the same hand that the player with the higher chip count gets the higher prize?

I don't think the big stack necessarily needs a huge hand for the all-in. It could just be an isolation raise with something like JJ. I assume that the BB has enough chips where he could lose to both short stacks and beat the big stack and still show a significant gain in chips?

Paul

[Goodie54]

How much were the blinds and how much exactly did the BB have? This makes a BIG difference.

Peace

Goodie

[Cleveland Guy]

Also - what what P4's chips? I know he folded, but it also make a difference in my decision.

[fnord_too]

For me this really depends on P3. I am probably folding everything except aces and kings here, but I could see folding kings if he was a complete rock (who managed to amass a chip lead despite this), or calling with substantially more hands if I knew he would make this play with something like A9s just to take a shot at the two shortstacks (and shut me out). There are players out there who will try sneaky things like that. I know because I am one of them /images/graemlins/ooo.gif.

[schwza]

yes, every cardroom gives the higher place to the guy who had more chips to start if 2 (or more) go out in the same hand.

you have to realize that the big stack will be making this play with a wide range of hands. if i were him with A9, that would be enough. the 2x bb pusher can have pretty much anything (would be helpful to know how close he was to the blinds).

the 3x pusher has basically no fold equity later, so he might as well gamble and try to triple up (short stack + BB + blinds/antes) if he has anything reasonable. note that the 3x guy doesn't have a lot to gain by waiting to see if the 2x busts - if the 2x doesn't bust this hand, he'll have an uphill battle with only 3x against the other guy's ~5x. and if they both bust, 3x still gets 4th place money.

the big stack then, should be pushing marginal hands. so i'd be tempted to try to pick him off and move into a commanding chip lead if i were the BB. it would be nice to know what the other guy's stack is, and how close BB's stack is to the 2x and 3x guys. does BB have a great chance to get 2nd by folding here, or is it the case that if the 3x guy doubles up the BB will be in 4th?

i would call AA-JJ and AK. take a shot at winning the tournament, and even if you get knocked out, you probably have 3rd.

[West]

Assuming P4 is not too short stacked, and that when multiple players are knocked out the player with the most chips before the hand finishes higher, I'm definitely not folding queens. AK, maybe.

[BelfastTheCat]

I think calling with AK is a bad move. AK is best when its against one other hand ... its not a hand you want to be playing against 3 other people -- some one is bound to have a PP, and there is most likey 2-3 live cards out there other than your AK.

Take a situtation where one person has a suited connector, one person has an Axs and the third has a couple of broadways: (it gets even worse for AK if someone has a middlish PP)

1221759 boards
cards win %win loss %lose tie %tie EV
As Kc 361617 29.60 817942 66.95 42200 3.45 0.3124
8h 7h 356517 29.18 861322 70.50 3920 0.32 0.2926
As 9s 247427 20.25 939946 76.93 34386 2.81 0.2158
Jc Kh 213998 17.52 996027 81.52 11734 0.96 0.1792

compare this to if you have Queens (still not THAT great in my opinion):

1086008 boards
cards win %win loss %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Qc 384574 35.41 698943 64.36 2491 0.23 0.3547
8h 7h 212751 19.59 870766 80.18 2491 0.23 0.1965
As 9s 289495 26.66 794022 73.11 2491 0.23 0.2671
Jc Kh 196697 18.11 886820 81.66 2491 0.23 0.1817

Just the sheer number of people you are up against decreases your odds tremendously. Unless you get lucky and most of their cards are dead.

Personally, I want Kings or Aces:

1086008 boards
cards win %win loss %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Kc 466888 42.99 608849 56.06 10271 0.95 0.4340
8h 7h 229707 21.15 853579 78.60 2722 0.25 0.2121
As 9s 305092 28.09 778194 71.66 2722 0.25 0.2816
Jc Kh 74050 6.82 1001687 92.24 10271 0.95 0.0723

Probably Aces, looking at that 43% :

1086008 boards
cards win %win loss %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Ad 601229 55.36 474188 43.66 10591 0.98 0.5583
8h 7h 221145 20.36 863929 79.55 934 0.09 0.2038
As 9s 125474 11.55 949943 87.47 10591 0.98 0.1202
Jc Kh 127569 11.75 957505 88.17 934 0.09 0.1177

-belfast

[nightlyraver]

I think what you are missing is the fact that P1 and P2 are about to blind out. They REALLY could have any two. If I were P1 my range for a push of only 2 BB's would be any PP at all, any 2 big cards including hands like QTo and even most suited connectors like 87s or better and probably any A or even any K. For P2 to push in his last 3 BB's he would probably only need a range slightly smaller - let's eliminate hands like K7s or A3o even. When it goes around to the big stack, he would be correct to call with a huge range of hands, even if he is just taking a gamble. Remember the huge increase in cash-equity at this point in a tourney. He goes all in to drive out the BB in question. How could you possibly fold here?

Also, as a side note you should remember that even if he is a dog to the big stack, the BB probably has a huge lead on both P1 and P2 and (although I didn't work out the math here) in all lieklyhood will place in 3rd if he looses to the big stack and will have a GREAT shot at taking first if he wins this hand alltogether.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Personally, I want Kings or Aces

[/ QUOTE ]

not me, man.

seriously though, the sim is flawed b/c it acts like all stacks are equal. if the 2x bb guy has 66 and it stands up against your AK and big stack's AJ, then whatever, you still win a lot of chips (would be nice to know stack sizes). the big stack's most likely holding is a decent/big A, and you dominate that.

[West]

Right...if you have the big stack beat, you're fine. Actually, I don't think there's much chance I'm folding AK either.

[West]

Right. With AK, you stand a good chance of dominating the big stack, but if you're not, the combination of your AK and his pair stand a great chance to be dominating the two smaller all in stacks. And as long one of you wins, you're at least third.

Folding and letting a weaker ace or a hand like KT win for one of the smaller stacks (or the big stack in the case of a weaker ace) is somewhat of a disaster.