Jan. 27 Hand #1 08

[Moneyline]

Party 2/4 10 handed

UTG+1 (unknown) calls, UTG+2 (total magoo, plays 80% of hands and bets and raises with crap) calls, I call in LMP with A /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/heart.gif 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif, CO (unknown) calls, button (very loose on all streets, jams A2xx preflop and frequent bluffer) calls, sb (loose preflop) completes, BB (loose, raises any A2xx) checks.

Flop: 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

SB checks, BB bets, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, I call, everyone else calls.

Turn: 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Checked to UTG+2 who bets, I raise, everyone calls.

River: 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Checked to button who bets, everyone calls.

Results in white

<font color="white">I 1/4 the pot with UTG+1 and make just over 1 big bet. Button takes high with T845 for a full house </font>

[chaos]

I would be concerned about my hand with this flop and a whole field of callers. You have the second nut low and little chance to win high. If someone has A2 you get nothing. If someone also has A3 you are playing for a quarter of the pot. If an Ace or a 3 comes on the turn or the river your hand will be counterfeited and you will likely get nothing.

I would fold on the flop and wait for a more profitable situation.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
I would be concerned about my hand with this flop and a whole field of callers. You have the second nut low and little chance to win high. If someone has A2 you get nothing. If someone also has A3 you are playing for a quarter of the pot. If an Ace or a 3 comes on the turn or the river your hand will be counterfeited and you will likely get nothing.

I would fold on the flop and wait for a more profitable situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree,

[soundgarden4]

[ QUOTE ]
i agree,

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree,

[Buzz]

Moneyline - There’s a second betting round play that might have worked for you here. It’s a play that probably works best against “weak” opponents. In addition, the play has a higher chance of success if you, yourself, have a somewhat conservative image. (And if you make the suggested play too often, that image will at least be tarnished if not endangered). Finally, and most importantly, I think to effectively use the play you need to be able to read most of your opponents.

First betting round: Fine. you have a very playable hand (double suited A3TK) and should very much want to see the flop. You might also have raised before the flop with your hand. But not raising seems fine, and usually better than raising, I think, from late middle position (or probably from any position, IMHO).

Second betting round: Six opponents have seen the flop with you. You seem fairly certain that two of them don’t hold A2XX (or they would have raised with it before the flop). Another two are loose enough that the individual probability either has A2XX is roughly fifteen or sixteen to one against (something in that neighborhood). One of the unknown two opponents who saw the flop has already folded to a flop bet. The other unknown opponent (Cut-Off) is in a position where pre-flop raising with A2XX is at least logical, and for some, the Yadsians,/images/graemlins/grin.gif, very tempting, perhaps even irresistible. Since Cut-Off didn’t raise before the flop, even though not a known adherent of Yadsian pre-flop philosophy, the possibility of Cut-Off holding A2XX is reduced - although it still might be greater than random.

Very roughly, and that’s all you need here, the chances are fifty-fifty of being up against an opponent who holds A2XX when you hold A3XX and are at a full table with opponents who have been dealt random hands. That’s great enough, in my humble opinion, so that you need a healthy respect for the possibility of being up against an opponent who holds A2XX, but not great enough, also in my humble opinion, that you should consider it almost inevitable.

In order to successfully play A3XX hands after a low flop such as this one - a low flop with no ace, deuce, or trey - I think you need a good read on your opponents. And you seem to have a good read on your opponents.

What I’m picking up from what you have written is you think no opponent probably has A2XX.

At the point when the action gets to you on the second betting round, you have five active opponents. Two do not hold A2XX or they would have raised. Another two are loose enough that the individual probability either has A2XX is not much greater than random. The last opponent, Cut-Off, although in a position where pre-flop raising is logical, did not raise before the flop. (That's my understanding of what you have written).

You’re not just guessing. You’re fairly certain. Trust your insights.

Any of these five players could hold A2XX, but from reading what you have written, on balance, I think it’s more likely one of those opponents holds A3XX, the same as you. And if that is true, maybe you’re wondering how you might get rid of that opponent.

No guarantees here, but sometimes you can convince an opponent who plays a bit too tight after the flop, and who has A3XX, that you have flopped the nut low.

How? You raise on the second betting round. To make this work well, IMHO, you need to have a reputation for not usually raising before the flop with A2XX. (Otherwise, since you didn't raise before this flop, your targeted opponent won’t buy it).

This play would be aimed primarily at Cut-Off but also might affect Small-Blind. Either of them probably does not hold A2XX, but might hold A3XX, and if so should be concerned about the possibility of being up against the nut low. Alas, with Mr. Magoo in the game there’s not much you can do if he is holding A3XX.

Ironically, you might reap a greater profit if you actually held A2XX by delaying your move one betting round. The delay would somewhat disguise your hand because it’s very hard for most opponents at this limit to read a move that is delayed one round.

An opponent is most likely, IMHO, to read you for the nut low if you make your move when the board first enables a low. If you don’t make a move immediately after this all-low-card-flop, I think the opportunity to convince another opponent holding A3XX that you have A2XX will be lost forever.

There’s a discrepancy in your post. You state UTG+1 folded and also that UTG+1 quartered you. If you mean Mr. Magoo quartered you, there’s not much you can do about it. But I still think the play I’m suggesting merits consideration.

Third betting round: Your raise here probably looks to your opponents as though you have made a straight. That might be good for purposes of deception if you held the nut low, because you might want to convince your opponents you had a straight instead of the nut low. But here, because of the danger of being quartered, you should want any opponent with A3XX to think you have the nut low rather than the straight.

Don’t misunderstand; I think your raise here is fine. (Your read is that nobody holds the nut low). It’s just that you’re making your move one round too late to possibly induce Cut-Off or Small-Blind to fold with A3XX.

If neither Cut-Off nor Small-Blind was the opponent who actually quartered you, it’s a moot point. (But the next time you’re in this rather common predicament of flopping the second nut low without much of a chance for high against four or five opponents, it might not be a moot point).

Fourth betting round: Fine. Not much else you can do here, the way things have gone.

I see that Chaos, whose opinion I greatly respect, has advised you to fold to BB’s second round bet and has been seconded by two other posters, Johnnybeef and Soundgarden4. Without your reads on your opponents I think that’s good advice. (You have no decent shot at high, you have no counterfeit protection, and you don’t even have the nut low). Indeed, without your reads on your opponents, it would look very grim.

However, with your insights, I think you might have some fun with a raise on the second betting round.

It’s not for everyone. You need a good feel and a deft touch.

Just an idea.

Buzz

[Moneyline]

Thank you Buzz, for your detailed comments. Thanks also for pointing out the typo. It was the BB who took a quarter of the pot with me. He/she held A63? for a flopped straight and the 2nd nut low.

Edit: Some random comments... I've been reading through the other poker archives and many of your posts and discussions with Don Condit and other posters are tremendously helpful. It is as helpful as any book to my game (a lot more helpful than most books, I should add). I may even bring some of these old threads back from the dead with questions and comments of my own. Between the archives and Baldwin &amp; Gregorich's chapter of SS2 I'm on an 08 high /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

[Phat Mack]

Excellent post of a very solid suggested play.

How? You raise on the second betting round. To make this work well, IMHO, you need to have a reputation for not usually raising before the flop with A2XX.

Table image is paramount. Many O8 players limit their raises to A2xx, thereby announcing their hands. This is yet another reason not to do that.

Third betting round: Your raise here probably looks to your opponents as though you have made a straight.

An important key to making the play. When you have A3xx and flop a deuce-less made low, there is going to be a possible straight on the board. For example, if the board comes864, any 57 makes a straight. With the proper table image against trained opponents, a flop raise would be less likely interpreted as a straight since such a straight would be a fairly flimsy high hand. This gives it a better chance to be interpreted as a nut low. Firing at an 874 board with a 56 would be seen as even less likely.

Waiting for a brick to come on 4th street before making a play might also present problems. If, say, the Qc came on 4th, the 5,7 straight becomes a little stronger, and therefore a 4th street bet or raise with it is more likely. Sometimes you have to fire another barrel. While a raise on the flop might not represent nut low clearly enough to drop another A3, a raise on the flop coupled with a bet/raise on a bricking 4th street could be enough to do the trick.

All of these plays depend on establishing the right image.