Heart Breaking finish...What would you do?

[Brian R]

Playing in a super for a seat in the WPT event...1st pays about $12k (seat), 2nd gets about 5K, third get 3k and 4th get 2k.

The blinds are 500/1000

There are 5 players left (4 places pay)

I am in the BB with 14k chips and dealt 77
First in player 31k in chips makes it 2500 to go...

second in (35k) folds, third man in (4k chips) folds, 4th man (20k) chips folds...

What is your play? Dont read on yet......



I go all in for 13K, thinking UTG player will fold any hand AQ or worse for my raise of 13k is large...I have been playing very tight and this player is no slouch either....He sits and thinks...calls with A9o and the rest is history to a board of 9339k

Should I have folded and waited a few rounds for the 4k stack to bust and collect at least 2k? What would you guys have done and why? People watching me said I made the right play but I'm now thinking otherwise...

Thanks

Brian R

[sirio11]

I think you did the right play.

David

[pokerraja]

Tough hand. I think you can make an argument for both pushing and folding. regardless, i think its a terrible call by him.

[Pepsquad]

It was the wrong play. Wait, let me clarify that. If I was in that situation it would have been the wrong play for ME, simply because adding the 2 grand to my bankroll would be almost as big as the WPT seat would be.
In this situation, I'm mucking EVERYTHING other than AA/KK until the 4K stack either busts or doubles up.
But, if 2 grand means squat to you and you are simply playing for the WPT seat, I can't fault your move at all.

[Pepsquad]

[ QUOTE ]
Tough hand. I think you can make an argument for both pushing and folding. regardless, i think its a terrible call by him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. How the hell did UTG make this call?

[McMelchior]

[ QUOTE ]
I have been playing very tight and this player is no slouch either

[/ QUOTE ]
So this tight player makes a raise UTG, and you move in with a middle pair. Obviously you don't expect him to call with a pair lower than yours or with Ace-under. If he calls, at the best you're a coinflip.

I can't really tell if you regret your bad read (that he wouldn't call for 1/3 of his stack with a so-so hand and the pot offering him 1.7:1), or if you regret putting yourself in a situation where your chances of survival hinges on your read and a conflip.

If you were aiming at the seat I believe you did the right thing - you got a coinflip as a small favorite, and remember correct play is never indicated by the outcome of one hand.

If you would be happy just to cash it should have been an easy fold - depending on when the blinds increase the short stacks should be out either soon or right away.

This underscores the importance of being absolutely aware of what you goal in a tournament is. Your goal very clearly guides your play here.

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)

[Brian R]

good points....Thinking about it some more I think I made the wrong play. Although in this case he didnt really have a hand, I should have respected his early pos raise. My reraise all in should of had him fold every pocket pair jacks (maybe) but at least 10's and lower as well as AJ (maybe aq) and worse. If I can get him to fold 88, 99 or a better pokcet pair I do well, otherwise he should only call me with a big pocket pair or AK AQ. In this case I am risking my entire stack just to win and extra 2.5k in chips and hoping to win the coin toss if I get called. I could have easly folded and waited for a better hand or to at least finish in the money. The 2k is no big deal but but better than nothing.

Brian R

[housenuts]

i think you gotta wait out. give the guy with 4k a chance to bust or double up before you start making questionable moves. even if you didn't really care about the money and just wanted the seat the extra 2.5k isn't going to be that big a deal. you're still going to have to double up.

funny thing is i probably would have made the same play. but reading posts like this might get me to rethink. at least you didn't have AA or something because that would have been a real heart-breaking loss to his trip nines even though it would have been a better play.

[nsj]

Is calling and trying to hit a set such a bad idea?

Put in another 1500, so your stack is at 11.5K, 11 after the SB if you check-fold on any flop without a 7. If you hit a 7, you can probably double through. If you miss your set, dump it and post the SB.

[dogmeat]

My decision here is simple, I'm not coming over the top with anything less than AA or KK. The fact that one of the stacks only has 4K helps me make this decision. Certainnly I play differently if there is no raise yet..........

And, how did the "no slouch" call your all-in?

Dogmeat /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[KingMedicine]

[ QUOTE ]
Is calling and trying to hit a set such a bad idea?

Put in another 1500, so your stack is at 11.5K, 11 after the SB if you check-fold on any flop without a 7. If you hit a 7, you can probably double through. If you miss your set, dump it and post the SB.

[/ QUOTE ]

in this situation i like this line or folding, maybe slightly prefer folding. with your stack you cant really afford to lose another 1500 chips because if the small stack doubles thru (which he's probably around 40% to do), then you're right there with him, but if by chance you hit your 7 on the flop, you can probably get all your chips in there and double up. also, on a non scary flop, there is a chance you can get your opponent to fold to a lead-out bet by you or to check it down with you and you very well might end up with the best hand.

its definitely a tough hand, but going over the top and pushing is definitely a wrong move in my opinion. he's not laying down a pair higher than your 7s, which means your tourney is over. he's not laying down AK or AQ either, which makes you a slight favorite. it turns out your read was right in that he didnt have you beat, but your read that he was no slouch was wrong and the slouch called. tough one, but i think you gotta lay it down. wait until the 4k stack busts and then make this move without hesitation.

[Brian R]

Calling isn't a bad idea but we all know the challanges with 77 post flop. In this case a flop of 933. It might have been a tough fold on the flop....

[Brian R]

I agree with your comments. Too bad the heat of the battle clouded my judgement!

[mcteecho]

Or if you feel compelled to get all your chips in, at least run a stop-n-go so he has to make two decisions (I realize that with this flop his 2nd decision is easy, but we can't base the analysis on the result).

[McMelchior]

If you base your tournament play on how people "should" play and not what they're doing you will not get far. At all limits I've played, online up to $215 and live up to $500 buy-ins, I've seen numerous players making numerous very loose calls at any point in the tournament.

You can't take for granted that your defeater read you to be tight and only willing to move in with prime starting hands. As a matter of fact he made the correct read - you were out stealing with a medium pair, and his kicker was good. Maybe he "read" that, maybe he just wanted to gamble, or maybe his mouse mis-clicked. What matters is that you voluntarily brought yourself in a situation with an inherent risk of either coin-flipping for you whole stack or even finding yourself dominated by a higher pair. The size of this risk being determined by the quality of your read on the opponent.

The outcome is a result of your action, not of what he "should" or "should not" have done. Blaming your incorrect reads and the consequences of your actions on your opponents might provide you with a short-term solace, but it's detrimental to your development as a tournament player.

The most important thing in improving your game is to be absolute honest with yourself. I make a ton of mistakes when I play, often because I get excited and act without thinking (“I’ll show that moron!”), because I refuse to believe someone with such a big stack can raise from position with a genuine hand or maybe even catch two good hands in one orbit, because I haven’t paid attention of just because I don’t know any better. It’s painful to realize that I was the one that did something “bad” – not the opponent that “stupidly” called my all-in with a pair of fours to defeat my pocket deuces. Sometimes my bad reads, my stubborn calls or my arbitrary raises brings me to accumulate large amounts of chips and eventually cash big, but that doesn’t make me a better player. Mistakes are caused by me and by my actions – not be other players “bad play” or by what they “should” have done.

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)

[djoyce003]

I think you wait here and let the 4k guy bust out or double up.

[Hickboy]

Unless the 4th place prize has no meaning to you, you most definitely don't want to go broke here.

I think calling his raise, and seeing the flop is optimal here (someone already mentioned this).

I would bet out on most flops in this situation heads up. There is a decent chance that the raiser may be on a steal, and/or missed the flop completely. Even with this flop, it would be hard to know where you are in the hand without a bet. If you encounter resistance, time to dump it.

Comments appreciated.

[housenuts]

many people have mentioned only pushing with AA or KK. i could see myself pushing down to TT and AK and AQ. upon thought my line may not be the best but that's just what i see myself doing in the situation. what would you push with in this situation?

how much was the buy-in for this tourney by the way?

[Brian R]

The buy in was only like $230 or so. I probably would have pushed AK all in (a raise for value) AQ would have scared me. I mucked 1010 a few hands earlier when an UTG player raised 2.5 the blinds and I was in the cut off...88 and 99 in my book would be the same as 77 (end result...bad time to go all in) 1010 is probably a grey area...I might have smooth called with 1010, gone all in on the flop then lose to the boat on the turn;) JJ is would probably have the same results. I prob. would have gambled with QQ and KK and AA for sure push. The end result is I could fold ANY hand with for the 4k stack to bust then still WIN, the tourney.

[docknet]

Here. Here.

[esbesb]

I'd be way to scared to go all in here with the other guy having just 4k and the 2 grand waiting for the 4th place player. I would have called. Then I would have waited for his action on the flop and decided what to do. Use your position here.

I'm surpised he called with A9, but that doesn't change what I would have done. You got to remember that sometimes these ity-bity raises come from people with big hands.

[esbesb]

No, it is not a bad idea. It is a good idea. The notion that you need to either push or fold is wrong. Nothing wrong with calling here and deciding what do do after the flop.

[ggbman]

I think you have to fold this. The second best option is see a flop. I think the worst is pushing. Although he call is horrendous, i think you need to understand the equity you have in the payouts because of the short stack.

[esbesb]

I thought you had position on him. Didn't see you were in BB. Still same thought, though, just as much or more since it only costs you 1500 more to call. I'd probably even have bet out on this flop and folded to any resistance.

[Al Mirpuri]

Mr 4K is going to be blinded out any moment now so you fold and make the money.

[DeeJ]

No way I push here. I want the guy with 4k to go out and the blinds will get him all-in against a large stack sometime very soon. I'd be sucking right back to play only JJ-AA here. I'd probably be folding AK. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[DeeJ]

my view exactly. If you push then the guy who has you covered 3x over may well call since he's still unlikely to finish out of the $$ even if he loses.

[pryor15]

if this is a live tourney, i'd maybe even fold w/o looking. even if he's stealing w/ rags, so what? you're getting 10:1 on your buy-in if you fold b/c the 4k stack will blind out soon enough. we've all seen AA get out-drawn at the worst times imaginable. 2k is 2k and you could still come back and win the whole thing.

[dankhank]

you have to also consider the fact that for every time he folds this hand, _any_ of three other players could bust out on the next one. so he's not just folding for 2K equity, but for the chance to win even more without playing a hand.

[Matt Finkelstein]

I like the stop and go here; you only want to push if you're first in. With sngo, you'll have 12500 left after calling and make a 3000 bet on any flop without an A or two painted cards. If he comes over the top you can get away w/ 9500 left and still be a fav to cash ag the sstack. If he calls, you have another decision. On that flop, I could easily go broke, but i like to think I could get away from it if I wanted the $2k.

Calling in BB has the added benefit of (possibly) discouraging a move at you in the next orbit, even if you lay it down post flop/probe bet.

(nothing like all the time in the world to reflect on the "correct" play when u have all of 30 secs online!!


1010 is better than 77 but not much. I've lost 3 mtts with 1010 -- 11th 13th and 7th -

[patrick dicaprio]

toughbreak. talk about a heartbreaking finish: i think eMarkM and maybe others lost out on a WSOP seat on the last hand heads up higher pair to lower pair and the lower pair trips up on the river. now THATS heartbreaking.

Pat

[Jurollo]

If I am going to put my chips in here I might do it postflop depending on what I see, committ to a stop and go on any raggedy flop.
~Justin

[suited_ace]

This is a tricky situation when you're playing it, but if you analyse it you certainly won't be doing it again.

You need to think what would be the hands that you wouldn't like to see in this situation. Personally I would consider those to be any 2 overcards and any higher pair than mine and the guy UTG probably has exactly one of these 2 hands.

Anyways, let's look at the math so you'll have this very clear in your mind for the next time you're facing a situation like this one. There are 42 ways of producing a pocket pair higher than your 77 and 336 ways of producing two overcards.

Against an overpair you have a 20% chance of winning, against two overcards you have more or less 55%. Of the 378 possible hands you'd win about 193 times, i.e. 51%.

If the guy calls you're betting your tournament mortality on a coin flip after working very hard to get where you got. Winning won't give you the first position. Winning won't even put your opponent in a very complicated position (17k is more than enough to keep playing your game). To make matters even worse, you had a player on the verge of elimination.

It's all good. Next time you'll end up with your seat at the WPT tournament.