What are the odds that I suck?

[Evan]

10,897 hands
-0.15 BB/100
SD = 16.3912 BB/100

What are the chances that my true win rate is >1 BB/100 given these stats?

EDIT: If you wanna be really cool you can include the probabilities of other win rates too (1.5, 2, 2.5).

Thanks.

[gaming_mouse]

Your SE (standard error) is:

16.3912 / sqrt(10 897 / 100) = 1.57020832

This means a 95% CI for your true win rate is:

-.15 +- 3.14

Using a normal dist calculator, the chance that your true win rate is:

>1 BB/100 = .23
>1.5 = .14
>2 = .085
>2.5 = .045

Is this from 15/30?

HTH,
gm

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]

Is this from 15/30?

[/ QUOTE ]
No, 10/20 6 max.

Thanks for the answer.

[four-flush]

I know my average hourly Standard Deviation (SD) and how to calculate SE. How do I use that information to determine the probability that I am, say a 1 Big Bet per hour winner, ½ BB per hour winner, 2BB per hour winner, etc? gaming_mouse answered the probability that Evan was a winner, (see previous posts in this thread), and I want to know how to do it for myself. How do I calculate it?

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
I know my average hourly Standard Deviation (SD) and how to calculate SE. How do I use that information to determine the probability that I am, say a 1 Big Bet per hour winner, ½ BB per hour winner, 2BB per hour winner, etc? gaming_mouse answered the probability that Evan was a winner, (see previous posts in this thread), and I want to know how to do it for myself. How do I calculate it?

[/ QUOTE ]

normal dist. calculator (http://www.math.csusb.edu/faculty/stanton/m262/normal_distribution/normal_distribution.html)

The question only makes sense when you are losing, or win you are winning less than what you think your "true" win rate is.

Enter the win rate you think you have for mu.
Enter your SE for sigma.
The area to the left of your observed win rate is the chance that you could lose as much as you have by chance alone. You can use -100 as an approximation to -infinity.

HTH,
gm

[four-flush]

I went to the link you gave me and it says that the calculator will pop up under a separate window. At the bottom it says Class normal Normal applet not found and no calculator comes up.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

without doing any of the math, i would say theres a good chance you're really bad at this game.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
I went to the link you gave me and it says that the calculator will pop up under a separate window. At the bottom it says Class normal Normal applet not found and no calculator comes up.

[/ QUOTE ]

works for me... i'm on windows xp.

anyway, just google for "normal distribution calculator" and you will find other ones that will work for you.

[Evan]

Chris, how about sharing your 2005 stats and we'll decide what your true win rate is? /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[four-flush]

[ QUOTE ]
without doing any of the math, i would say theres a good chance you're really bad at this game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol. I win; so I would say there is a good chance your assessment of how I fare is extremely bad.

[tpir90036]

There is also a good chance that your assessment of who he was responding to in his post is extremely bad. "lol" indeed.

[four-flush]

[ QUOTE ]
There is also a good chance that your assessment of who he was responding to in his post is extremely bad. "lol" indeed.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a good chance that there is a good game on at Party Poker right now. /images/graemlins/club.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif /images/graemlins/spade.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Lmn55d]

have you tried 5/10 6max? How did you do there?

[Evan]

Yea, I played 5/10 for a little while, not too long. I did fine there and in all honesty I'm not worried about my results at 10/20. I just thought that it would be interesting to see where I stood in terms of confidence intervals. If I am still treading water after 20k hands then I'll start to get scared but I'm content to chalk it up to running poorly and learning a new game for now.