What do you think of this bidness?

[Bigwig]

Villain had been calling my BB, then auto mini-betting the flop every time. I kept completely missing, though, and was salivating at the chance to take him down. Also, I once raised with 99 from MP 5 handed, he called from the BB, and took down a nice pot from me on a check raise of a KJ2 flop. So, I think he had me pegged as weak. Whatever. Here's the hand:

Pokerstars $30, 5 handed, I'm in 5th. Blinds 50/100.

All fold.
Villain SB (2300) completes
Hero BB (t1600) A /images/graemlins/spade.gifT /images/graemlins/diamond.gif raises to 350
Villain calls 250

Flop: 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Villain bets 1950 and is all-in
Hero calls and is all in

Thoughts?

Results in white:
<font color="white">Villain has Kc5c, two blanks on turn and river, I win. </font>

[Jman28]

I haven't checked the results yet, but here are my thoughts:

You gotta have a pretty good read to make this call. I assume he either has a PP, two high cards, or maybe something like T9s(?), but I doubt that last one.

If he has high cards, You probably are ahead, with AK-AJ he probably would've raised rather than completing. With a monster AA-QQ (JJ) he might just call there preflop, but a reraise is pretty possible.

The most likely hand to be played this way is a small PP (but not a set). With that, you're looking at a 25% chance of winning. I still feel that a pf raise would make sense to steal the blinds.

With, maybe KJ, you're the 3:1 favorite.

I would about rule out the AA (he wouldn't want you out of the hand on that flop) and probably KK for the same reason.

QQ or JJ is a decent possibility. And you're in bad shape in that case.

I'd fold this one, but I would consider calling because I'm really curious what he has. As a matter of fact, I'm going to stop posting and not tie up all of my jumbled thoughts so that I can look at the results. Hope it worked out.

-Jman28

Edit: Well, I was wrong. Nice hand.

[Mr_J]

Looks like he's trying to buy his way out of the pot.

If he had anything decent (PP, good Ax) he'd raise you PF, unless he wants to milk you with QQ+, maybe JJ. Since he pushed the flop, I'd say he completed with something like 2 high cards. 33-66 or Ax hitting the pair is possible, but I think he's more likely to try and milk you.

I'd feel confident I'm ahead, but am not about to call.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd feel confident I'm ahead, but am not about to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Care to explain?

-Jman28

[Mr_J]

It'd be nice to know what the other stack sizes are and their seats.

I think I'm probally ahead because hands that are better would probally raise preflop, or not push on the flop. However, I'm not sure I'm ahead enough here to justify the call. My stack is still decent and since it's on Stars, blinds will take longer to go up, so I have time.

I might be playing this one tight subconciously since I know I'm not crash hot post flop (my read on him might be way off).

[raptor517]

i would never, ever make that call. ever. he could have anything that beats you. 23 beats you. 67 beats you. 33,44, need i go on? AJ, AQ, you have to have an amazing read to make that call.. and i never have a read that good.